Good morning
Here is some news from around the lake and the lake level update.
Came across this one article earlier in the week and in it a remark caught my attention –
“So far, Canadians have been reluctant to make any revisions to Plan 2014.”
https://auburnpub.com/blogs/eye_on_ny/fema-chief-joins-rep-john-katko-for-lake-ontario-flooding/article_ac20ee34-bce2-5551-bb87-4656b8cbc746.html
FEMA chief joins Rep. John Katko for Lake Ontario flooding forum, surveys damage
- Sep 17, 2019 Updated 9 hrs ago
Robert Harding, The Citizen
LYONS — Peter Gaynor, the acting administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, visited upstate New York Monday to survey Lake Ontario flood damage and discuss short-term and long-term solutions to help communities affected by record water levels.
Gaynor was invited by U.S. Rep. John Katko, a member of the House Homeland Security Committee, to attend the roundtable discussion with state and local officials at the Wayne County Public Safety Building. The meeting, which lasted more than an hour, wasn't open to the press or public.
At a press conference following the discussion, Katko said the topics included eligibility for federal funding, pre-disaster mitigation funding, individual assistance for property owners and the insurance market.
Gaynor advised residents along the lake to invest in flood insurance. It's not included with homeowners' insurance, he explained, so they would have to open a separate policy to get that coverage.
"It really is the best defense you can have when faced with flooding," Gaynor said. "One inch of water can equal $25,000 in damage. If you don't have flood insurance, you're at risk."
There has been significant damage to businesses and homes caused by flooding along the lake. There were high water levels in 2017 and repeat flooding this year. In June, Lake Ontario levels eclipsed 249 feet — a new record.
In 2017, President Donald Trump approved a major disaster declaration for eight counties — Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson and St. Lawrence — along Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. New York could request another disaster declaration this year, but the water needed to recede so state and local officials could better assess the damage to seek federal aid.
To receive federal assistance, the state has its damage threshold and the individual counties have separate targets to qualify for the disaster declaration. That was a problem for Cayuga County in 2017 because it was initially excluded from the declaration. The declaration was later amended to include Cayuga County because it was determined that the county met its threshold for federal aid.
Katko reiterated his view that the flooding was caused by Plan 2014, a water management plan adopted by the International Joint Commission in 2016. The commission, which oversees shared boundary waters between the U.S. and Canada, said the flooding was caused by heavy precipitation and inflows from other Great Lakes.
Plan 2014, Katko said, "has been an unmitigated disaster."
"There's no easy answers, but one thing's for sure: I'm absolutely 1,000% convinced that Plan 2014 has got to go," he said.
It will be difficult to amend the plan. The six-member commission consisting of three officials from the U.S. and three from Canada must reach a consensus on any action they take. So far, Canadians have been reluctant to make any revisions to Plan 2014.
Gaynor didn't criticize Plan 2014 — he said he was briefed on it during the meeting — but noted that it would take a "multi-pronged approach" to repeal the plan. He acknowledged, though, that it will take more than abolishing the plan to address the problem.
"Things like disaster mitigation and flood insurance are really the things you need to do all in tandem to resolve this mess," he said.
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Friday September 20th, the average level is at 75.28 M (246.98 Feet)
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2009, the September lake level average has been 74.78 M ( 245.34 Feet )
The average lake level for September 2017 was 75.08 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 16 C / 62.6 F
Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Sept 06 – 75.386
Aug 23 – 75.51
Aug 16 – 75.585
Aug 09 – 75.65
Aug 02 – 75.72
July 26 – 75.78
July 19 - 75.85
July 11 - 75.89
July 05 - 75.93
June 28 - 75.95
June 21 - 75.95
June 14 – 75.984
June 07 – 75.97
May 30 - 75.94
May 24 - 75.86
May 17 - 75.795
May 03 - 75.51
Apr 29 - 75.41
Apr 12 - 75.10
Mar 29 - 75.018
Mar 15 - 75.0
Mar 08 - 74.97
Feb 22 - 75.00
Feb 08 - 74.96
Jan 25 - 74.88
Jan 11 - 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71
And courtesy of the IJC,, their numbers
International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board
The average Lake Ontario outflow is expected to be 9,270 m³/s for the coming week. This flow rate is 200 m³/s above the normal safe navigation flow limit that applies at the current Lake Ontario elevation as defined by the regulation plan. Actual outflows will depend on conditions in the St. Lawrence River.
Week Ending: Average this time
Wed, 18 Sep 2019 of the year (c)
Lake Ontario / Lac Ontario
Actual end of week level: 75.21 (246.75) 74.75 (245.24)
Computed Plan 2014 Level (a): 75.29 (247.01)
Computed Preproject Level (b): 75.87 (248.92)
Weekly Mean Outflow: 9600 (339000) 7550 (266600)
Weekly Total Supply: 7320 (258500) 6380 (225300)
Lake St. Lawrence at Long Sault Dam 72.78 (238.78) 73.21 (240.19)
Weekly Mean Level:
Lake St. Louis at Pointe-Claire Weekly 21.61 (70.90) 21.15 (69.39)
Mean Level:
Montreal Harbour at Jetty #1 Weekly Mean 6.58 (21.59) 6.20 (20.34)
Level:
Ottawa River at Carillon Weekly Mean 780 (27500) 1120 (39600)
Outflow:
Preliminary Lake Ontario Outflow for Week 9270 (327400) 7470 (263800)
Ending Fri, 27 Sep 2019:
Levels are in metres (feet) IGLD 1985. Supply and flows are in cubic metres (feet) per second m³/s (ft³/s).
(a) Levels that would have occurred with strict adherence to Plan 2014.
(b) Levels that would have occurred had there been no Lake Ontario regulation.
(c) For comparison purposes, Lake Ontario water level data since 1918 are used to be consistent with those published in the US and Canadian Great Lakes bulletins (
http://www.waterlevels.gc.ca/C&A/bulletin-eng.html). Other averages are for the periods as follows: Lake Ontario outflows and levels at Long Sault and Pointe-Claire since 1960; Montreal since 1967; and Ottawa River outflow at Carillon since 1963.
The regulation plan for Lake Ontario specifies a weekly average outflow from Saturday through the following Friday, inclusive. To provide timely information for the coming week to the hydropower and Seaway operators, and our readers, we complete the regulation plan calculations each Thursday. Our calculations use the data available at the time, which are from the previous seven days (Thursday through Wednesday). Since the two time periods do not exactly coincide, their data are usually slightly different.
The table shows the actual flow for the week ending Wednesday. It also gives the preliminary flow for the coming week ending Friday. We emphasize that this is the preliminary flow, since unforeseen flow changes may occur after we have issued our notice. When these flow changes occur, they are reflected in the subsequent week's notice.
Information in this report is compiled from provisional data provided by: Environment & Climate Change Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Hydro Quebec, Ontario Power Generation Inc, the New York Power Authority, and the U.S. National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration.
Visit the Board's website at
https://ijc.org/en/loslrb to find out more.