Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

scotto

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I was looking back at my February 12th photo of the canal ladder and the water level was just below the rail as you can see in the picture. A check of the canal level today shows that it hasn't changed much since then.
Checking the graph that Opie has posted many times, there was a sharp increase during the month of March and onward, it isn't happening this year yet. According to the graph we were over a foot higher at this time last year.


 

Opie

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I was looking back at my February 12th photo of the canal ladder and the water level was just below the rail as you can see in the picture. A check of the canal level today shows that it hasn't changed much since then.
Checking the graph that Opie has posted many times, there was a sharp increase during the month of March and onward, it isn't happening this year yet. According to the graph we were over a foot higher at this time last year.
Give me a bit this morning to get some things done and I will post the numbers shortly. With the storms passing to our south and east, it has been making the lake level go up and down like a yo-yo. Swing in height has been about 9 cm - 3 1/2 inches.
 

Opie

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Good morning,

Friday March 23rd, the average level is at 74.918 M

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.7 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2007, March lake level average was 74.75 M - 2017 data has now been updated to the charts
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 40 F

Next reading date is Friday April 6th.

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Mar 09 - 74.99
Feb 23 - 74.973
Feb 09 - 74.90
Jan 26 - 74.95
Jan 12 - 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 - 74.71 M
Dec 8 - 74.795
Nov 24 - 74.89
Nov 9 - 74.929
Oct 27 - 74.83
Oct 10 - 74.95
Sept 29 - 74.99
Sept 15 - 75.12
Sept 1 - 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 4 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71




Fortunately the weather gods have been on our side for almost two weeks. The dry spell has helped contribute to lowering the lake level along with the discharge from the Mosses Saunders dam. Before you start doing a silly hat dance thinking we are out of the danger zone, sorry but I hate to be the bearer of bad news. next week the spring thaw starts. On the west coast is a disturbance that for the time being, is expected to go mostly south of the great lakes, this Pineapple Express will bring warm temps and rain to our region, severe weather to the south. Expect it to hit Tuesday into Wednesday, along with it will come strong winds from the east. Spring is here.


Here is a neat article regarding ice coverage on the great lakes with some satellite photos. Also it show a lot of snow to our north that has yet to melt

http://www.woodtv.com/weather/bill-s-blog/satellite-photos-snow-ice-on-great-lakes/1070910725
 
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scotto

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No sign of Lake Ontario flooding repeat - yet

The Democrat & Chronicle

Updated 1:27 p.m. ET March 26, 2018

A year ago, the Lake Ontario shoreline was being battered by storm-driven waves and people were beginning to bellow about how high the water was getting.

The water got really high in April. Historic flooding followed.

And since the fall, shoreline residents have been worried that this spring would bring a repeat. Fears were heightened by a new plan for regulating lake levels.

Today, Lake Ontario is a bit high but shows no signs of flooding. Conditions have been nearly ideal to minimize the risk, in fact.

That’s not to say shoreline flooding won’t happen. If spring should bring heavy rain, as happened last year, the waters will rise quickly.

“Conditions are better than last year,” admitted Dan Barletta, a Greece lakeshore resident and longtime advocate for shoreline interests. “But it would not take a lot to see issues develop on the lake if it rises more.”

There are some indications that the area’s lengthy dry spell may end soon, but no weather forecast can dependably predict rainfall a month or two in advance.

“There’s just no way of knowing right now,” said Keith Koralewski, a hydrologist for the U.S Army Corps of Engineers who advises lake-level regulators.

Lower than last year

As of late last week, Lake Ontario was about six inches higher than the long-term average for this time of year.

Koralewski said that doesn't mean much. "Everybody looks at that long-term average. That's just a reference point. In any given year, the levels are never at that average," he said. "The level now is ... not unusually high."

Over time, the lake has been higher than it is now about one year in every three. The level was four inches higher two years ago, and six inches higher a year ago.

Two years ago there was no flooding. Last year, thanks to intense spring rains, there was.

That's the memory that lingers. "Certainly everybody's aware of last year and is worried about that," he said.




Read whole article;
https://www.democratandchronicle.co...flooding-rochester-greece-sodus-ny/452679002/


More;
http://www.rochesterfirst.com/news/...r-than-last-year-but-above-average/1080512179

http://www.thewhig.com/2018/03/27/water-techs-do-their-level-best

http://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/warren-water-the-next-big-political-issue#comments
 

Opie

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Tonight's approaching storm is really going to hammer some by mid day tomorrow with wind and damaging waves. Some estimates put the waves from 10' to 20' tall by mid day tomorrow, north shores from Toronto to Kingston for the mid day. Then the winds will swing to a more south west direction slamming the south shores.

I have attached a weather tool, move the map and zoom into any area, select the wind speed tab on the left. You can then change the date and slide the bar across on the bottom to change the time during the day. Colour gradient is on the right showing wind speeds.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=42.4;-81.6;5&l=wind-10m&t=20180404/06

news from around the lake

http://www.localsyr.com/news/wind-l...effect-for-areas-near-lake-ontario/1094426923

SYRACUSE (WSYR-TV) - A High Wind Warning is in effect for Jefferson, Oswego and Lewis Counties from 3am Wednesday through 8pm Wednesday. There is a High Wind Watch for Lewis, Onieda, Madison, Onondaga, Chenango, Cortland, Tompkins, southern Cayuga, and Seneca counties from 8am Wednesday until 2am Thursday.
A strong cold front will move through Wednesday morning and in the wake of the front it will turn VERY windy with gusts west winds over 50 or 60 mph possible, especially near Lake Ontario which could produce scattered power outages and down some trees.
These strong winds will also kick up some very big waves and lead to some lakeshore flooding and erosion near Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon and night. A Lakeshore Flood warning will go into effect from 2 pm Wednesday through 2 am Thursday for Jefferson, Oswego, Northern Cayuga and Wayne counties.
Stay tuned to NewsChannel 9 for the latest updates over the next couple of days.


http://13wham.com/news/local/greece...tter-to-ijc-calling-for-water-level-reduction

Greece, N.Y. (WHAM) - Greece Town Supervisor Bill Reilich is asking the International Joint Commission to continue to push water out of Lake Ontario to reduce the risk of flooding.
On Tuesday, Reilich said a letter had been sent to the IJC asking them to maintain or increase the outflow of water from the lake.
Water levels rose three feet higher than normal in 2017, flooding homes and businesses along Lake Ontario and causing millions of dollars in damage.
The letter sent to the IJC asks for decisions to be made in accordance with the 1909 Boundary Waters Treaty, as opposed to the IJC Plan 2014. The former treaty would "share the burden" between New York and the Montreal region.
Greece has already begun taking steps to prepare for more flooding this spring, including a new berm structure and pipe system. The DEC and Monroe County are taking similar steps.
"Since its launch, I have opposed the International Joint Commissions plan to raise the lake levels and advocated against its implementation," Reilich said.
Frank Bevacqua, Public Information Officer for the IJC, said the current outflow is "as high as possible without posing a risk to navigation safety in the St. Lawrence River."
"The Plan 2014 has released more water from Lake Ontario from last September to present than during any similar period in the last 30 years," Bevacqua added in a statement. "The lake dropped 3 inches in March, a month during which it normally rises."
 

scotto

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I will be watching this storm as we are supposed to get a good dumping of rain which should finally impact the water levels and the this system will cover all of southern Ontario and the upper States. As of today the canal level is still below the wall rail and below last year.
20' waves? The surfing guys will all be out.
 

Opie

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I will be watching this storm as we are supposed to get a good dumping of rain which should finally impact the water levels and the this system will cover all of southern Ontario and the upper States. As of today the canal level is still below the wall rail and below last year.
20' waves? The surfing guys will all be out.
20' waves, yes this caught my attention also. I too will be watching this storm and how it will impact the Ottawa valley. Ground there is still frozen and any significant rail will cause flooding. This will result in the IJC slowing the output of the Mosses Saunders dam.

Near the end of the news blurb is the mention of wave heights, poor souls

http://cnycentral.com/news/local/al...o-wednesday-evening-may-cause-damage-flooding

ALERT: High wind gusts Wednesday into Wednesday evening may cause damage & flooding
by Meteorologist Mike Brookins
Tuesday, April 3rd 2018
A high wind WARNING is in effect for the following counties:
-- Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties from 6 AM Wednesday until 11 PM Wednesday.
A high wind WARNING means that strong and damaging winds will occur soon during the time outlined. Sustained winds of 40 mph will occur for one or more hours, or winds will gusts 58 mph or higher for one or more hours. Damage to trees, power lines, and property are possible with winds of this magnitude.

A high wind WATCH is in effect for the following counties:
-- Onondaga, Oneida, Madison, Cortland, Tompkins, Chenango, Otsego, Seneca, Schuyler, Yates, Ontario, Steuben and southern Cayuga counties from 8 AM Wednesday until 2 AM Thursday.
-- Lewis county from 11 AM Wednesday until 8 PM Wednesday.
A high wind WATCH means that the potential exists for strong damaging winds to develop during the time outlined. The possibility exists for sustained winds of 40 mph will occur for one or more hours, or winds will gusts 58 mph or higher for one or more hours. These strong winds could bring down trees and power lines as well as cause property damage. A watch does not mean strong winds are occurring now. A high wind warning will be issued when the strong wind potential is imminent.

In this particular case here is what I am expecting:
Southeasterly winds of 10-20 MPH become southerly later Tuesday night and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH.
Winds will become much stronger on Wednesday.
Wednesday morning winds will be southerly at 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH.
After a cold front moves through, west-southwesterly sustained winds will increase to 25-35 MPH with peak wind gusts of 50 to 60 MPH likely.
A maximum peak wind gusts of 60 to 70 MPH cannot be ruled out, especially over the highest elevations and areas east of Lake Ontario.
This will likely bring the opportunity for localized power outages & possible wind damage. See this graphic below:
If your area has a high wind alerts, here is what you should do:
-- Damaging winds will likely occur across parts of the warned area. Stay inside and away from windows. The highest winds will likely occur across the highest elevations of our area and near lakeshore communities.
-- Be prepared for trees blocking roadways and for power outages.
-- Have a battery operated radio, and several flashlights available and in working order.
-- Keep an eye on Interactive Doppler and Triple Doppler radars on CNYcentral.com.
-- Keep your phone with your CNYcentral mobile app turned on so if warnings are issued you will know.
-- Periodically check NBC3, CBS5 and CW6 for updates on the weather and additional warnings.
A lakeshore flood WARNING is now in effect for the Lake Ontario shoreline of the following counties:
-- Oswego, Jefferson, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties from 2 PM Wednesday until 2 AM Thursday.
What does this lakeshore flood warning mean?:
--A combination of still relatively high lake water levels of Lake Ontario and gale force of west-southwesterly wind of 30-40 knots with higher gusts to 50 to 60 knots will create fast building and high onshore waves of up to 10 to 20 feet. This will result in increased localized lakeshore flooding and shoreline erosion along the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline.
--Flooding is most likely in low-lying, flood prone areas along the immediate lakeshores and in bays and inlets along Lake Ontario and into the Saint Lawrence River & Thousand Islands region.
--Wave action will result in increased shoreline and beach erosion.
Here's what you should do if you live on the shoreline:
-- Take any necessary precautions to protect property from flooding.
-- If you are asked to evacuate, heed local officials.
-- Keep your phone with your CNYcentral mobile app turned on so if additional warnings are issued you will know.
-- Periodically check NBC3, CBS5 and CW6 for updates on the weather and possible warnings.
-- Know which county you live in, and where you are in relation to streams, creeks or rivers, which can become killers in heavy rains.
-- If you live or work in an area which is prone to flooding, have a safe evacuation route to use if flooding occurs.
-- Have a battery operated radio, and several flashlights available and in working order.
 

Opie

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Good morning,

Friday April 6th , the average level is at 74.97 M

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.75 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2007, April lake level average was 74.94 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 40 F

Next reading date is Friday April 20th.

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Mar 23; 74.918
Mar 09; 74.99
Feb 23; 74.973
Feb 09; 74.90
Jan 26; 74.95
Jan 12; 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27; 74.71 M
Dec 8; 74.795
Nov 24; 74.89
Nov 9; 74.929
Oct 27; 74.83
Oct 10; 74.95
Sept 29; 74.99
Sept 15; 75.12
Sept 1; 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 4 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71




The spring storm earlier this week, we saw at the storms peak the lake level here drop to 74.659 M and at the opposite end by Kingston ON the lake level rose to 75.199 M-. Same time the wind gusts were at 98 kms +, I do not have the confirmed wave heights yet. Below is a time-lapse video of the storm hitting the pier at Sodus Point, Rochester NY

http://buffalonews.com/2018/04/05/a-cyclones-fury-captured-on-lake-ontario/
 

scotto

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Another photo today of the canal, the water level still has not reached the rail on the north wall.




But we have been draining the lake more;

https://www.nationalobserver.com/20...g-out-lake-ontario-hit-record-high-last-month

An American media outlet, but they suggest that there will be higher than normal precipitation for the next three months;
https://www.northcountrypublicradio...sidents-along-lake-ontario-fear-more-flooding


The level of Lake Ontario is controlled by downstream dams, and some residents say a change in government policy brought higher levels and last year’s floods. But scientists with the Army Corps of Engineers say, with record spring rains, there was simply too much water to handle.

Scientists point to climate change as a catalyst for these higher levels. Temperate winters and wet springs fill the eastern Great Lakes – Erie and Ontario – with water.

And Keith Koralewski of the Army Corps says current conditions do not necessarily promise a repeat of last year.

“Levels that we see during this time of year do not provide any indication of what lake levels will be in April, May or June,” he says.

For levels to return to normal, Koralewski says the region needs an extended dry period.

But NOAA forecasts a 40 percent chance of higher than average precipitation in April, May, and June. (Shown below)

In the meantime, Myrick, Jones and their neighbors along the shore are hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.


From;
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif

 

Opie

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Around 5 pm Sunday the lake level by the channel reached its highest peak at 75.44 M, this does not include the wave height which were reported to be between 2 to 3 Metres. The storm surge did a major clean up of the beach pushing most of the debris a good 3 Metres inland. It's too early to tell how much of the beach berm eroded away from the heavy wave action. Down towards the pier the path was flooded out and full of debris from the beach.





 

scotto

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Storm takes another bite out of Hamilton’s waterfront trails


Fierce wind-whipped waves piled new problems atop damage caused by last summer¡¦s historic high lake levels.

Matthew Van Dongen „³
Hamilton Spectator
April 16, 2018

The weekend ice storm took another big bite out of Hamilton's already battered waterfront trail ¡X and the city's budget.

The same huge waves that crashed over breakwalls and into homes in Winona Sunday also chomped asphalt out of the lakefront trail in Confederation Park, damaged waterfront parkettes and washed away sand dunes along Hamilton's beach strip.

In some cases, the storm simply compounded damage done by last year's historically high Lake Ontario water levels, which the city estimated last fall could eventually cost $7 million to repair ¡X including $1 million or more just to fix the badly eroded waterfront trail along the harbour.

"The wave action really scoured out some areas. This time, it was the Lake Ontario trail that took the bigger hit," said city parks manager Kara Bunn. "In Confederation Park we were getting ready to repair some repair minor damage (from last year) that is now major damage."
The city was already preparing to rebuild parts of the paved trail this spring and summer, as well as add strategic armour stone along parts of the Lake Ontario trail to help battle future storm erosion.

Now, Bunn said the city and Hamilton Conservation Authority will talk with their contractor to see if an expanded work program to deal with the new damage is possible.

The storm surge also sent massive waves spilling over the waterfront trail behind Hamilton's residential beach strip ¡X something that didn't happen at the height of the high lake water crisis last spring, said longtime resident Jim Howlett.

"I don't think we've seen that since the early '90s," said Howlett, who blamed the "sustained" northeast winds for the rare surge that even sent lake water trickling into a few side streets.

Read whole article;
https://www.thespec.com/news-story/...her-bite-out-of-hamilton-s-waterfront-trails/

Another article with some good photos;
https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8397074-surging-lake-ontario-worries-homeowners-in-stoney-creek/

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8397074-surging-lake-ontario-worries-homeowners-in-stoney-creek/

One more;
https://www.hamiltonnews.com/news-s...vice-in-aftermath-of-unprecedented-ice-storm/



 

Opie

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I haven't yet made it down the path past Hutch's but looks like the damage is bad, the trail and park is closed

http://conservationhamilton.ca/confederation-beach-park-closed-to-all-visitors/

Due to extreme damage caused by the storm and cleanup required, Confederation Beach Park and the Breezeway Trail are closed until further notice. Visitors are asked to stay away until the cleanup is completed. There is a lot of debris in the park and on the trail, and some parking areas are under water. Park staff are working to clean up the area and make it safe again for visitors. Updates will be posted to this website and HCA social media.
 

Opie

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Looks like the Govt Weather station shack on the pier got battered by the storm, it was pushed off its footings and has had some of its cable ripped from it. I checked the Environment Canada Weather web site and it still shows this station transmitting data just no wind direction.


 

scotto

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I haven't yet made it down the path past Hutch's but looks like the damage is bad, the trail and park is closed

http://conservationhamilton.ca/confederation-beach-park-closed-to-all-visitors/

Due to extreme damage caused by the storm and cleanup required, Confederation Beach Park and the Breezeway Trail are closed until further notice. Visitors are asked to stay away until the cleanup is completed. There is a lot of debris in the park and on the trail, and some parking areas are under water. Park staff are working to clean up the area and make it safe again for visitors. Updates will be posted to this website and HCA social media.
Finally had a bit of time to stop by Confederation Park today and what a mess. The waves made it all the way to the road along VanWagner's and pushed debris and sand along with them.

A few pictures;




Damage to the old boat launch dock;


Crews working on section of the beach that was damaged by high lake levels last year;
 

Opie

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Good morning,

Friday April 6th , the average level is at 75.08 M

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.79 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2007, April lake level average was 74.94 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 40 F

Next reading date is Friday May 4th.

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Apr 6; 74.97
Mar 23; 74.918
Mar 09; 74.99
Feb 23; 74.973
Feb 09; 74.90
Jan 26; 74.95
Jan 12; 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27; 74.71 M
Dec 8; 74.795
Nov 24; 74.89
Nov 9; 74.929
Oct 27; 74.83
Oct 10; 74.95
Sept 29; 74.99
Sept 15; 75.12
Sept 1; 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 4 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Spring thaw finally kicks into high gear.
This last storm gave us a month's amount of rain in just a few days which makes up for the relatively dry spell we have gone thru. Now with the forecast for the daily temps to go double digits and lots of sunshine for the next several days, expect to see the lake level to rise as the snow pack around us begins to melt quickly.




New from around here

https://globalnews.ca/news/4152552/hamilton-grants-for-ice-storm-damage/

City of Hamilton offers 'compassionate grants to those with ice storm damage

By Ken Mann Reporter 900 CHML

There's millions of dollars in new trail damage to be repaired along Hamilton's waterfront trails, following last weekend's ice storm.
City of Hamilton
Hamilton city councillors have moved to declare last weekend's freezing rain storm a disaster.
The designation allows residents who experienced flooding, especially along the Lake Ontario shoreline, to apply to the residential municipal disaster relief assistance program.
The city's compassionate grant program offers a maximum $1,000 per resident.
READ MORE: City of Hamilton crews dealing with aftermath of spring ice storm
Stoney Creek Coun. Maria Pearson admitted that it's a pittance, but still, a little bit of help that we can provide to a few dozen homeowners affected by a dramatic storm surge.
Coun. Chad Collins added that he'll be bringing a separate motion in regards to millions of dollars in needed repairs along the city's waterfront trails.
His motion will also ask staff to discuss the potential for design changes if this sort of thing is going to happen on a regular basis.
READ MORE: Potentially historic ice storm arrives in southern Ontario; closures, crashes reported
Collins noted there's still a backlog of repairs to be completed after last year's high water levels caused erosion damage along the shoreline.
A City of Hamilton spokesperson said they have reports of damage to parts of the trail and beach along Lake Ontario between the Burlington Canal Lift Bridge and Confederation Park. The spokesperson said staff are working with the Hamilton Conservation Authority to assess damages and make plans for repairs.
With files from Nick Westoll
© 2018 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
 

Opie

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Good morning,

Friday May 4th, the average level is at 75.23 M

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.95 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, May lake level average was 75.11 M
The average lake level for May in 2017 was 75.80 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 42 F

Next reading date is Friday May 18th.

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Apr 20- 75.08
Apr 6 -74.97
Mar 23 - 74.918
Mar 09 - 74.99
Feb 23 - 74.973
Feb 09 - 74.90
Jan 26 - 74.95
Jan 12 - 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27- 74.71 M
Dec 8 -74.795
Nov 24 - 74.89
Nov 9- 74.929
Oct 27- 74.83
Oct 10 - 74.95
Sept 29- 74.99
Sept 15- 75.12
Sept 1- 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 4 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71



News from around the lake

It would seem the that the IJC finally has someone doing PR spin work for them, below is a news item that could make you believe that the IJC is doing great work and Plan 2014 is perfect. Expect more of these news items to come from the IJC.

http://www.rochesterfirst.com/news/local-news/the-future-of-lake-ontario-water-levels/1158550693


Last year the excuse for flooding was the rain. The IJC kept on saying that it was the amount of rain we received last year that caused the flooding, now an expert working with the IJC says a deluge of rain now couldn't cause flooding. The lake is about 8 to 12 inches below where we were last year at this time but the spring rains are just starting. The main reason the lake is lower than last year at this time is because the conditions below the Mosses Saunders dam are allowing an extra amount of water to be released. The IJC states that they are releasing a record amount of water due to a provision in Plan 2014, when Lake Erie has a high water level causing a large in flow of water into Lake Ontario, then the IJC can increase the discharge downstream. If this added discharge had not happened this year we would be in the same situation or worse than last year with the lake level.

So what about last year? Lake Erie's flow into Lake Ontario was about the same, yet the IJC didn't increase the discharge from the dam last year like this year. The provision in Plan 2014 should have allowed this to happen last year, Yes ? The IJC fresh into their new mandate for Plan 2014, was hell bent on getting the lake level up. Questions to the IJC regarding the higher lake level early last year were usually answered by Chair Lana Pollack - that this will be the new normal for the lake level. But this year you do not hear much of anything like that from the IJC.

Last year when the IJC was asked to increase the discharge from the Mosses Saunders dam when the flooding began, they said no due to conditions downstream. If the IJC had released more water then areas like around Montreal QC would have seem extensive flood damage ( which is another topic about why not to build portions of a city on a natural flood plain )

To me it seems that the IJC will say about anything that meets their cause. Chair Lana Pollack kept saying early on last year, that even if the old plan was in place we would have still had the same amount of flooding, which I would have to agree with. Because if the old plan were in place, we would have had the same commissioners in place that are there now under Plan 2014. The entire current commissioners for the IJC should be replaced for failing to recognise the imminent danger that would occur to the shoreline of Lake Ontario. The great lakes water level data in 2015/2016 should have steered the IJC to do corrective action in the early fall of 2016 before any implementation of Plan 2014, this would have decreased the amount of damage that occurred last year.


Here is another news item, non PR

http://13wham.com/news/local/lake-o...r-home-was-nearly-lost-from-historic-flooding
 
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scotto

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Good morning,

Friday May 4th, the average level is at 75.23 M

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.95 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, May lake level average was 75.11 M
The average lake level for May in 2017 was 75.80 M
Good find, checking my lake level meter I would have to say that this is the biggest increase in lake levels this year and it was quick too. I checked last Wednesday and the level had gone up slightly, but checking today, I would estimate that it has gone up 4 to 5 inches in that short time period. More to come?
But as Opie has listed above, still no where near last year's level.

http://www.localsyr.com/news/lake-o...e-lower-this-spring_20180504095225/1159074059

Another;

http://www.rochesterfirst.com/news/local-news/the-future-of-lake-ontario-water-levels/1158550693
 

scotto

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Residents hopeful Lake Ontario water levels remain below last year’s record highs

PUBLISHED: SATURDAY, APRIL 28, 2018
Water levels were measured at 246.45 feet as of Thursday, about 9 inches below where they were at the same point in 2017, but 9 inches above long-term averages.

Arun K. Heer, U.S. Secretary for the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board, said a combination of factors limited the probability of water levels reaching the all-time highs seen last May.

“The high outflows have helped the situation,” he said. “The hydrologic conditions like rainfall are the contributing factors, the primary driver in changing water falls. The lack of precipitation is assisting where we’re at right now.”

Outflows were listed at 8,700 cubic meters per second, or 307,200 cubic feet per second, as of April 19.

Read whole article;

http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/...-below-last-years-record-highs-video-20180428
 

Opie

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The Beach Strip
Here are some news items from around the lakes


The item below does show that the IJC does allow deviation from current plans

https://www.sootoday.com/local-news/lake-superior-shoreline-is-taking-a-beating-914145

Lake Superior shoreline is taking a beating
Above-average water levels coupled with strong winds and waves continue to result in shoreline erosion and coastal damages across the upper Great Lakes system
May 6, 2018 9:00 PM by: SooToday Staff
NEWS RELEASE
INTERNATIONAL LAKE SUPERIOR BOARD OF CONTROL
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Lake Superior continued its rapid decline in April as continuing high outflows combined with a second straight month of dry conditions in the basin, while more seasonable conditions returned to the Lake Michigan-Huron basin and its seasonal spring rise resumed.
The Lake Superior water level declined by a record 3 cm in April, normally the month that it begins its seasonal rise, and at the beginning of May, Lake Superior is 15 cm above average (1918 - 2017), but 4 cm below the level at this time last year. Lake Michigan-Huron saw wetter weather in April and levels resumed their seasonal rise, increasing 10 cm last month. Lake Michigan-Huron is currently 41 cm above average, 10 cm above last year's beginning-of-May level and the highest since 1998.
The seasonal water level rise is expected to begin on Lake Superior and continue on Lake Michigan-Huron in May. Despite the recent decline on Lake Superior, the above-average levels coupled with strong winds and waves continue to result in shoreline erosion and coastal damages across the upper Great Lakes system.
Additional shoreline erosion and coastal damages may occur this spring and summer should active weather continue. The board recently obtained approval from the International Joint Commission (IJC) to temporarily deviate from Regulation Plan 2012 from May through November 2018 in a manner similar to that employed in the past three years, which were also marked by high lake levels and outflows.
Over the next several months, the board expects to adjust the gate settings at the Compensating Works and release flows greater than those prescribed by Regulation Plan 2012 in order to offset the effects of reductions in hydropower flows due to maintenance activities that occurred this past winter and that are expected to continue through the summer and fall.
Accordingly, the board, under authority granted to it by the IJC, has set the Lake Superior outflow to 2,290 cubic metres per second (m3 /s) for the month of May, which is 50 m3 /s more than that prescribed by Regulation Plan 2012.
Actual outflows may vary depending on hydrologic and ice conditions, as well as maintenance activities at the hydropower plants on the St. Marys River. The board continues to monitor ice conditions and will increase the gate setting at the Compensating Works as soon as ice conditions permit, possibly as early as next week.
The average St. Marys Rapids flow in May is expected to be approximately 280 m3 /s and the gates are expected to be opened to the equivalent of two gates fully open.
Anglers and other users of the St. Marys Rapids need to be cautious of the changing flows and water levels that will be experienced in the rapids in May.
The board stresses that hydrologic conditions are the primary driver of water level fluctuations. Water levels of the Great Lakes cannot be fully controlled through regulation of outflows, nor can regulation completely eliminate the risk of extreme water levels from occurring during periods of severe weather and water supply conditions.
It is not possible to accurately predict such conditions weeks in advance, but given the current levels of the lakes and the possibility that wet conditions may continue, the board advises all those that may be impacted to prepare for the possibility of high water levels, should they occur this spring, summer and fall.

This next article reminds one that Lake Ontario still has a tremendous amount of water to receive

https://doorcountypulse.com/great-lakes-water-height-well-above-average/

Great Lakes Water Height Well Above Average
By Door County Pulse, Peninsula Pulse - May 9th, 2018
Following 15 years of generally dry weather, the four upper Great Lakes - Superior, Huron, Michigan and Erie - are all well above average. Lakes Huron, Michigan and Erie are at their highest levels for this time of year since 1998. Water levels on the Great Lakes rise and fall in response to natural water supplies and levels change from day to day. Outflows from lakes Superior and Ontario are regulated at dams approved by the International Joint Commission, allowing a limited degree of influence over water levels.
Lakes Michigan and Huron, connected by the Straits of Mackinac, rise and fall as a single lake. Lake Superior was near the upper end of its historical range during the winter, but did not rise as much as usual in April. The level as of May 3 is about 1 inch below its level from a year ago. The IJC's International Lake Superior Board of Control expects Superior to remain above its long-term average the next six months, unless conditions are extremely dry. Regulated outflows from Lake Superior have been above average for the past six months and are expected to remain above average through the summer. Water levels as of May 3 on lakes Michigan and Huron were about 3 inches above their level at the same time last year. Levels are expected to remain above average the next six months, even under extremely dry conditions.
 
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