Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

Opie

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Interesting article popped up this morning, it presents both sides of the argument about the current lake level plan. I do sympathize with those living on the south shore of Lake Ontario, they will take a beating this winter. Now knowing the lake level will be kept elevated over winter unlike in past years, I foresee ice damage to the shoreline come late winter when the ice packs start to push onto land during high winds/storms.
Also noted that my thoughts that the current plan could be switched out were wrong for now. Plan 2014 will be around in its current state for another year and we can expect to experience spring flooding again but to what extent will depend on the precipitation that falls.
Of the IJC's 4 members ( 2 additional spots are currently vacant)- Mr Frank Sciremammano is the most vocal against it because it ties up the IJC's hand, if they want to be preventive when flooding is expected to occur.
The article does not mention that the IJC could not discharge as much water as it could early on in the flooding. This was due to Montreal and other areas downstream from the dam that have allowed human habitation to be built on a natural flood plain - these area's were experience flooding already.
The article is below or click on the link to view the various pictures and graphs, happy reading
http://www.democratandchronicle.com...e-ontario-flooding-lake-level-plan/900645001/
Achilles heel begins to surface on Lake Ontario
That one expert calls the "Achilles' heel" of the controversial plan for regulating Lake Ontario water levels is revealing itself for the first time this fall.
The lake is high - at a near-record high level for this time of year - because the new regulatory system, Plan 2014, dictates that it be that way.
The water is likely to stay higher than people are accustomed to right through the end of the year, and perhaps in the spring as well.
The persistence of higher water is "part of the damage of Plan 2014," said Frank Sciremammano, a Brighton engineer who has been involved in lake-level matters for decades. "The water stays higher for a longer period of time, and the window for a bad storm to hit is longer."
Valerie Bates has lived on Lake Ontario for over 50 years and has noticed the receding shoreline. (November 2017) Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Steve Orr
As of a few days ago, the water was a full 12 inches above the long-term norm for this time of year. Since lake-level regulation began nearly 60 years ago, the lake has been this high in late November only a handful of times.
The inflow from Lake Erie, whose level is 1 ½ feet above normal, is also likely to continue to be above-average well into 2018.
More: High winds, high water, lots of hot air: Facts and fiction about Lake Ontario's Plan 2014
"There's a lot of question marks going through the winter and early spring," Sciremammano said. "But in general, we're more likely to be high than low."
This does raise the risk of more shoreline flooding and erosion next spring, officials at the International Joint Commission say - but only very slightly. Their studies have found that no set of lake-level rules can hold back the water during times of extreme precipitation and inflow such as experienced this year.
A study is underway now to look at how the plan worked given this year's conditions. Its conclusions are due in early 2018, although any recommended modifications would be likely subtle.
But the situation with high autumn water now alarms and infuriates some shoreline residents who fear, with or without justification, that the regulators at the International Joint Commission are setting them up for another round of devastation.
This year's flooding damaged thousands of properties and businesses and has a price tag that will likely top $100 million. It left shoreline denizens frustrated, angry and anxious about a possible recurrence.
More: Flooding threatens family coastal camps on east shore
"All of the upper Great Lakes are well above average and the winter forecast is for a warmer and wetter winter, depending on which forecaster you go with," said Phil Miglioratti, who lives in a lakefront home in Webster. "My desire would be to see us take some action now."
But that's not going to happen. The plan calls for the lake to be lowered just 3 inches more by year's end.
More: High winds, high water, lots of hot air: Facts and fiction about Lake Ontario's Plan 2014
These homes on Lake Road in Webster have only a small stretch of land it sits on between Irondequoit Bay and Lake Ontario.

Greater variations and coastal Impacts
Plan 2014, so-named for the year it was developed, was designed to boost the lake's ecosystem by allowing a more natural cyclical fluctuation of Lake Ontario's waters.
It replaced Plan 1958DD, a prior iteration born in the 1950s in an effort to balance out the impacts on the lake's shoreline stakeholders with those on dam operators, boaters, shippers along the St. Lawrence River and flood-prone residents near Montreal. Effects on the environment were never considered then, to what environmentalists now say was devastating effect.
Plan 2014 is meant to add protections for disappearing wetlands and marshes to the mix by introducing this greater variability in water levels. It was considered a monumental win for environmentalists, who say it represented the second-largest wetlands restoration project ever undertaken in North America.
The higher water in the fall, a staple of the new plan, mimics the lake's natural autumnal level, according to Bill Werick, a technical advisor to the IJC.
"You get higher fall levels, which gets you higher spring levels, which most of the time is a good thing," he said..
This greater variation in levels was intended to help restore wetlands and various species - northern pike, black terns, spiny softshell turtles - that live in and around them. Higher water in the fall and winter, for example, would help protect muskrat burrows from predators.
Several homes on Edgemere Drive in Greece are repairing their breakwall.

(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE, @tyee23/staff photographer)

TO BE CONINUED ON THE NEXT PAGE
 

Opie

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$2 million out of pocket
One aspect of Plan 2014 that greatly angered shoreline property owners is that none of the other interest groups were expected to suffer financially under the new regulations.
But the property owners? They're out $2 million a year.
That is the sum that the IJC predicted would be needed each year for extra maintenance of the protective structures that line nearly half of the American side of Lake Ontario.
Dan Barletta of Greece, director of the Monroe County branch of the Lake Ontario Riparian Alliance, which represents shoreline property owners, says those estimates were never realistic to begin with.

"No accounting of damages beyond the first row of lakeshore homes were considered," he said. "Homes in and on our bays and ponds were not included."
Furthermore, he said, the estimates didn't factor in retrofitting breakwalls or marinas to cope with the plan's called-for higher highs.
When it adopted the plan, the commission recommended that government set aside a pot of money that shoreline property owners could draw upon to cover these costs. But the federal, state and provincial governments have ignored the recommendation.
The maintenance costs are the result of the plan's longer spells of what some call "medium-high" and "medium-low" water.
The regulations make this medium-high water the new normal, especially in the fall. And that will inevitably lead to damage to protective revetments and breakwalls on the shoreline.
"Plan 2014 does create more coastal impacts than 1958DD. That's a fact. It happens mostly in the medium-high range," Werick said.
Low-lying spots, including Sodus Point in Wayne County, could find waves washing over breakwalls more often. "And if your shore protection is lower, it's more likely to be destroyed," he said.
Werick said protective structures that are too low or otherwise poorly designed will bear the brunt of the damage.
A study done for New York state in 2013 found that nearly half the structures on the New York shoreline were in poor or moderate condition. Conditions were worst in Orleans and Niagara counties.
On a Facebook page run by the IJC's outflow board, conversations about what happened this year are spirited. Many lakeshore residents decry the IJC's handling of the high waters, still placing blame for the destruction on Plan 2014.
They're especially angry about what they believe was the IJC unfairly burdening them with damages, while sparing other lake interests including shipping and hydropower this year.
"Riparians lost money, time, blood, property," Pete Brennan of Greece told the board. "If you consider that equal distribution of pain, something is seriously flawed in the way you all think. The 'primary' interest this year was shipping, no ifs ands or buts about it. Shipping made money, riparians lost money. Simple as that."
He said given how high the water still is, several of his neighbors around the Edgemere Drive neighborhoods still haven't been able to repair the damage that happened from this year's flooding.
"Pray a repeat does not happen," he said.
More: Help us report on lakeshore rebuilding and answer these six questions.
More: Lake Ontario shoreline survey
A sewer grate is lifted in the parking lot of Crescent Beach Restaurant.

(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE, @tyee23/staff photographer)

Out of their hands
As this flood year has wound on, complaints have persisted that the regulators didn't do enough to stave off the high water.
Experts generally agree that's not the case. So much water flowed into the Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River basins that it overwhelmed the regulations.
"It was the most extreme event since modern record-keeping began," said Tony David, a member of the IJC's International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board, which has the authority to adjust the outflow from the lake to the river.
Underscoring that anomaly; Five cities spread through the two basins - Rochester, Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa and Belleville, Ontario - broke all-time rainfall records for the first five months of the year.
Indeed, at a recent state Senate hearing on the lake levels, David explained that heavy rains throughout the basins, coupled with an unusually wet and mild winter and above- average inflows from the upper Great Lakes, "illustrated the limited role of water regulation in preventing high water from occurring."
Sciremammano, who has been a member of the IJC outflow board since 1995, agreed that no set of rules could have made much difference this year.
But he has cautioned repeatedly that Plan 2014 has curtailed the authority of that board, and left shoreline residents at a disadvantage in the future.
That's because in the past, the board had more freedom to intervene when it felt there was a risk the water might rise too high or fall too low. Typically, IJC technical adviser Bill Werick said, this included lowering the lake somewhat in the fall as a hedge against the possibility of an unduly wet spring.
Plan 2014 takes a different approach.
"If all you're concerned about is flooding on the south shore, there's no question you want to lower the lake all you can in the fall. Of course, that's not all you're concerned about," Werick said. "Some people are boaters, some are bird-watchers."
The new plan does react to changes in lake levels or the amount of water inflow, but these reactions are built in and controlled by the plans' algorithms.
"Because it's based on tests run with 50,000 years of possible flooding situations, the plan automatically plays all of these odds out and makes high releases when there is a threat of flooding," said Werick, who is the expert that described high fall levels as the plan's Achilles' heel.
Plan 2014 still allows the board to intervene, but only when the water has already risen to near flood levels.
Sciremammano laments the loss of control, saying the new plan's algorithms tolerate high water in the way the board never did.
"These medium highs in the spring and fall - the plan is designed to allow that to happen, to not have the board intervene to bring it back closer to the average," he said.
And that increases the chances that unusually heavy precipitation could quickly push levels upward to the point that property is at risk.
IJC officials insist their studies found the new plan would almost never contribute to serious flooding, which they say has historically been due solely to rainfall, snow melt and river flow.
Sciremammano, though, doesn't agree. He thinks the medium-high water encouraged by Plan 2014 leaves too little room for error and will lead to levels high enough to damage property much more often than has been the case in the past.
Will next spring be one of those occasions? There is no way to know.
As Sciremammano noted, much depends on the winter and spring weather, and lake-level regulators have learned that long-term weather forecasts are unreliable.
Residents on Edgemere Drive were effected by high Lake Ontario levels and winds whipping the lake towards their property. Portions of this street were submerged under water as well as homes flooded by both the lake and Round Pond.

(Photo: Tina MacIntyre-Yee, Max Schulte )
Ditch Plan 2014, or change it?
Withdrawing Plan 2014 and replacing it with something else - some want the old plan restored, even though many shoreline residents complained about it constantly, too - would be, at a minimum, difficult and time-consuming.
As proponents often point out, 16 years of study, argument and deliberation led up to adoption of Plan 2014. Writing a new plan could take nearly as long.
And any plan requires a majority vote of the six commissioners; given that the U.S. and Canada each seat three commissioners, that effectively means the two nations must agree on any change.
President Trump intends to nominate three new IJC commissioners relatively soon, according to statements by U.S. Rep. Chris Collins, R-Clarence, Erie County, who said he provided the White House with the candidates' names.
The White House press office has declined to comment on Collins' assertions.
Even if the U.S. seats three new commissioners who are sympathetic toward the anti-Plan 2014 crowd, the plan wouldn't change until a replacement is agreed upon and both nations' governments signed off.
Altering Plan 2014 is a different story.
With the study of the plan's tempestuous first year now under way by an IJC adaptive management committee, some parties are already lobbying to restore to the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence board some of the ability it lost to deviate from the plan more often.
While it remains to be seen what recommendations will emerge, Werick, who is a member of the committee, said no one should expect too much.
"I can tell you that while you might see some improvements, they are not the kind of improvements you are going to notice at your house," he said.
SORR@GANNETT.COM
MMCDERMOTT@GANNETT.COM
 

Opie

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Good morning all

The IJC wants to hear from you about this past years high lake level and any damage or expense that occurred to your property. It took me about 20 minutes to fill out and is very easy. Just click on the link below and then click " Take the Survey! " to begin the process.

http://ijc.org/en_/GLAM


OR if you just want to read it, see below



We Need Your Input!
The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management (GLAM) Committee is seeking input from property and business owners that have been directly affected by the high water levels. The following survey asks a variety of questions on the extent of flooding, erosion, damage to shoreline structures, and related damage to residential and business shoreline properties. The survey should take about 10-25 minutes to complete, depending on extent of damage being reported on. Take the Survey!



Learn about the Committee
About the Committee

The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management (GLAM) Committee will undertake the monitoring, modeling and assessment needed to support on-going evaluation of the regulation of water levels and flows. The GLAM Committee will report to the Lake Superior Board of Control, Niagara River Board of Control and St. Lawrence River Board of Control.
The report of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Task Team provided the basis for the GLAM Committee. Knowledge gained during the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Study (2000-2006) and International Upper Great Lakes Study (2007-2012) will be updated and used by the GLAM Committee to provide on-going information on how the regulation of water levels and flows affects socio-economic interests and the environment. As more is learned and as conditions change over time, this information will help determine whether changes to regulation should be considered.
 

scotto

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I started to go through the survey and it didn't really apply to my property as I don't have a basement and I didn't incur any expenses, I also don't live on the lakeside. The issue I had was some of the houses around me pumping water down the street.
The one new house pumped water 24 hours a day non-stop.
 

Opie

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Good morning

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.55 M

http://www.thesuburban.com/news/lake...1cab470c0.html

Friday November 24th average level was at 74.795 M

Reading date / Lake Average
July 22 - 75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18 - 75.47
Sept 1 - 75.28
Sept 15 - 75.12
Sept 29 - 74.99
Oct 10 - 74.95
Oct 27 - 74.83
Nov 9 - 74.929
Nov 24 - 74.89


Next read date - TBA

Based on all we have read, the lake level will shortly begin to rise up and the lake will start 2018 higher than it did in 2017. Let's all hope that next spring it will be a little dryer and ease the shoreline damage / erosion we are to expect again.
 

scotto

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Department of the Army Corps of Engineers Detroit District
December 15th, 2017

The water levels for all of the Great Lakes remain above their long term average and their average water level from December 15th a year ago. The lakes have continued their seasonal decline with Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron are both 2 inches below their level a month ago. Lakes St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario are 3, 2, and 4 inches below their respective levels last month. The upper lakes, Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron, are expected to continue their seasonal decline in the coming month and fall 4 and 2 inches respectively. The lower lakes, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario, are nearing a transition from seasonal decline to seasonal rise. Accordingly, Lake St. Clair is expected to rise an inch , Lake Erie is expected to remain about the same, and Lake Ontario is expected to rise 2 inches in the next 30 days. See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information.

http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missi...vel-Forecast/Weekly-Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/

http://lre-wm.usace.army.mil/ForecastData/DailyLevelsEnglish.pdf
 

scotto

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http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/11/great_lakes_water_levels_still.html


By Mark Torregrossa,
mtorregr@mlive.com

We're in a phase where the Great Lakes water levels continue to trend higher each year. Next spring will be no different, the latest forecast shows. With the 2018 spring thaw, we should see the lakes starting their seasonal rise at a higher level than they did in 2017.

The trend of higher each year started with some Great Lakes bottoming at record low levels in 2013. For the last four years each Great Lake has generally been higher than the previous year.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers official forecast for the next six months calls for Lake Superior and Lakes Michigan-Huron to be significantly higher in March 2018 compared to March 2017.

Here's the forecast for Lake Superior.


I will admit there are a lot of lines and info on these graphs. The key point I want you to see is the lake level at the two black arrows. March 2018 water level forecast for Lake Superior is expected to be four inches higher than March 2017.

This means Lake Superior's multi-year rise in lake level is expected to continue.

Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are expected to gain even more water on last spring.


Lake Michigan and Lake Huron act as one lake due to their connection at the Straits of Mackinac. Lakes Michigan and Huron are expected to be nine inches higher in March 2018 compared to March 2017. That would be a significantly higher start to the seasonal lake level rise, which usually starts in March or April.

Lake Erie and Lake Ontario may be breaking their multi-year rise, at least temporarily. It will be hard for Lake Superior, Lake Michigan and Lake Huron to be adding water and Lake Erie and Lake Ontario losing water.



Lake Erie is expected to come out of winter at about the same level as March 2017.

Lake Ontario was at devastating record high levels this past spring. The good news is Lake Ontario is expected to start the seasonal rise 11 inches lower than March 2017.

Keith Kompoltowicz from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says a new forecast will be issued in December. He states that current lake levels are already tracking higher than the forecast levels issued just one month ago. Kompoltowicz says the December update may have to take forecast water levels even higher.

Kompoltowicz says he is already seeing evidence of increased erosion of Great Lakes shorelines. He also wants to remind us Lake Superior is only four inches lower than the record high in 1985.

The potential for damage along the Great Lakes shorelines is present. Damage will depend on wind direction and strength of the wind as strong storms pass over the Great Lakes.

The current forecast may already be outdated. November's precipitation over the Great Lakes basin has been above average and more than was factored into the current lake level forecast.

Watch for a new lake level forecast in December that could mean even smaller beaches come next summer.
 

scotto

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Along Lake Ontario, high water, damage persist

By Caitlin Whyte • Nov 29, 2017

The grey sky seems a bit more ominous out here.

With the winds whipping around and waves crashing on the break wall, Douglas Dobson walks around his home. His neighborhood sits on a narrow strip of land, with Lake Ontario to the north and several ponds to the south.
Dobson has kept the wall of sandbags he built this spring when flooding was at its worst. "I had over 400 sandbags in front of the house, and close to 1,300 sandbags around my two garages on the other side."

Dobson, president of the Crescent Beach Neighborhood Association, has lived here for 41 years, raised a family and retired on the lake shore. He says this past year’s weather is the worst he’s seen. The lake got much higher, and has stayed higher longer.

Like some officials, Dobson blames a new policy that regulates the level of Lake Ontario. These critics say the lake should have been lowered sooner – before big rains came last spring.

Now it’s still about a foot higher than normal.

"Normally at this time of year, we have sandy beaches out here, you can walk all the way from here down to the crescent beach restaurant,” Dobson says.

Today, there’s not a patch of beach in sight – it’s all underwater.

But flooding and erosion are natural, says Lana Pollack. She’s U.S. Chair of the International Joint Commission, which sets policy on lake levels.

“I think it would be wrong to give false hope, that somehow we’re going to learn something that will stop the flooding in very low lying areas," she said at a recent conference in Buffalo. "Or stop the erosion which is a natural phenomenon that has been ongoing since the glaciers receded many thousands of years ago.”

Pollack says many people saw the policy changes and the flooding months later, and assumed the two were related. They ignored the record spring rainfall.

“What’s happened -- I think too often in America -- is people paying too little attention to the facts and creating misinformation and it’s unfortunate, it’s unfortunate,” she said.

Back on the south shore of Lake Ontario, Virginia Meier is raking her lawn on a cold November morning. She’s lived on the lake her entire life, and has spent the last 16 years in a house near Dobson’s.

Walking around her property, she rattles off a list of things that were damaged by floodwaters.

“We just had a new sump pump put in, and we’ve had the cracks filled into our basement just yesterday," she says. "And tomorrow they’re coming to finish up, so this has been going on since July when you have estimate after estimate then you have workers coming in to fix you’re basement.”

Meier says some neighbors haven’t even fixed their basements. That means taking time off to be home when workers come, and doing lots of paperwork to get money from the state.

And then of course there’s all the stuff that money can’t replace. “All the stuff that you keep, all your kids’ toys and everything that you have in your basement gets lost because we had about two and a half inches flooded into our basement.”

Now Meier’s worried about winter coming.

She says there’s usually a decent size beach between her property and the lake. She and other residents count on this buffer to limit erosion; a frozen lake also helps.

But with more water comes more movement -- and less chance of Lake Ontario freezing. So Dobson, Meier and others in Crescent Beach may face a long, wet winter.


http://greatlakestoday.org/post/along-lake-ontario-high-water-damage-persist
 

Opie

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The gains and losses do not add up for Plan 2014.

As I look out over the lake this morning admiring the steam fog over the lake, I cannot but think that with the recent snowfall that the IJC may blame this week's snow we received on next year's flooding. Hold on, they have already stated we will experience some type of flooding, we just do not know how much or how bad. The IJC has ability to reduce or remove the threat of flooding yet choose not to?? The previous plan maintained the lake level as close to where the original lake level was prior to the Mosses Saunders dam was built. City-town-village infrastructure was built around that lake level in mind prior to any dam or "Plan" being in place. Now we look at the threat of nearly 200 years of civilization around the lake being eroded away year after year. The countless dollars that will be spent again and again to repair, replace and or remove the damage that the shorelines will take-priceless. The really unbelievable part to all of this is that the IJC spent many years studying the lake and in the best opinion, Plan 2014 is the better option.

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.5 M

http://www.thesuburban.com/news/lake...1cab470c0.html

Wednesday December 27th average level was at 74.71 M

Reading date / Lake Average
July 22 - 75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18 - 75.47
Sept 1 - 75.28
Sept 15 - 75.12
Sept 29 - 74.99
Oct 10 - 74.95
Oct 27 - 74.83
Nov 9 - 74.929
Nov 24 - 74.89
Dec 8 - 74.795

News from around the lake, oh and Happy New Year

http://www.thewhig.com/2017/12/21/island-residents-have-a-flood-of-questions

MARYSVILLE - Residents of Wolfe Island flooded this year by high water levels along Lake Ontario want to know if they can expect more of the same next spring.
On Wednesday, Frontenac Islands Township was among the municipalities to receive money from the Ontario government as compensation for damage done by the flooding.
The township is eligible for up to $560,000 from the Ministry of Municipal Affairs's Municipal Disaster Recovery Assistance program to cover repairs to roads and docks damaged by the high lake levels.
But Wolfe Island residents living along Easy Lane, a private road near the island's southwestern end, received no compensation for the thousands of dollars they spent to repair and reinforce their properties.
"I don't think there is any chance of getting money, but I at least want them to know our frustration and the financial amounts we are putting into our places," said Gordon Cobain, who moved to the road a couple of years ago.
After this year's flooding washed away his shoreline and flooded his property, he spent $30,000 to build a four-foot high sea wall along 220 feet of his property.
"I've taken early retirement, I'm on a fixed income and to try and absorb $30,000 in one shot is a painful experience."
The government and lake officials blamed the flooding on record rainfall in April in the Great Lakes watershed.
Cobain said that was one part of the problem, but he also blamed a plan put in place by the International Joint Commission to regulate water levels and flows on Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River.
Plan 2014 is designed to provide for more natural variations of water levels and moderate extreme high and low levels which, in turn improves coastal health.
The plan is also meant to better maintain system-wide levels for navigation, extend the recreational boating season and slightly increase hydropower production.
Easy Lane resident Margaret Webb, like Cobain, has spent thousands of dollars to protect her property from the lake water and prepare it for the next flood.
Like Cobain, she too built a new seawall, and also added 60 truckloads of fill and raised her house's foundation four feet.
Webb said she is less concerned about compensation than she is about information about what to expect from the lake next spring.
"Our home will be safe now, we'll be able to withstand some pretty high water levels," she said. "To me the bigger question is where is the high water going to be. Why is nobody talking about it? What are the forecasts?"
She said there is little information coming from any level of government or government agency or the insurance industry about flood forecasts.
"Lake Ontario is a fairly controlled lake. Are they telling us now that it is out of control? They can't control it? Why aren't they letting more water out? Is this the new normal? Do they want it three feet higher? Are we going to go through this extensive property damage next year?"
 

Opie

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Why nothing is adding up about Plan 2014.

The US ARMY Corp of Engineers along with other agencies, and scientists collected all the data for the IJC to use and so that the IJC could come up a with a new/better plan then what was in place prior top Plan 2014. If this was the case and IJC is standing behind their decision based on these facts then is " climate change " fact or fiction. I have read many articles regarding the great lakes basin and where the science community is speaking up about the impact that the great lakes will face regarding " climate change" . This is why Plan 2014 is not adding up and why I question if "climate change" is it fact or fiction.

If "climate change" is a fact, then we will experience warmer air, which will hold more clouds with more moisture. The fore " climate change " scientists state as these clouds holding more moisture approach the great lakes basin, they will drop more precipitation = more rain filling into the lakes = rising lake levels = a higher lake level more times than not for Lake Ontario, as it's the last lake to hold and before it discharges into the St Lawrence.

If "climate change " is fiction, then we had an above normal amount of rain this year coupled with a previous years excessive precipitation in the great lakes.

If we take the current Plan 2014 at face value, did the IJC take into account "climate change" and its effect on the great lakes or the IJC does not believe in climate change nor did those who supplied the research data believe in climate change. If "climate change" is real and taken into account then why on earth would the IJC allow Plan 2014 to go into effect?

Again this doesn't add up, anyone what to conjure up a guess?


Some reading
http://www.cm-life.com/article/2017/12/climate-change-michigan

When climate change is discussed, its impact is often presented in global terms - the rising of ocean levels or the melting of polar ice sheets. In Michigan, the Great Lakes also are being effected in significant ways that fewer people seem to be aware of.
According to a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report published in January, ice cover on the Great Lakes is forming later and melting sooner as a result of rising global temperatures. That could impact life in Michigan in several ways - including a lack of snow for winter tourism and precipitation carrying more contaminants into the lakes through runoff.
"While we've seen a decrease in the amount of regular snow received, we're seeing an increase in lake effect snow," said Daria Kluver, a meteorology professor studying lake effect snow.
Michigan is receiving more lake effect snow because of warmer lake temperatures. The temperature in Michigan has increased by 1.3 degrees Celsius since the 1980s, Kluver said, and it is predicted to get warmer.
When cold air crosses over, moisture from the warm lake is picked up and is condensed into clouds. Those systems dump snow downwind of the lake when it passes over the cold land. As global and national temperatures continue to rise, less precipitation in Michigan will fall as snow and more will fall as rain. Total precipitation across the Great Lake states has increased by 11 percent since the beginning of the century.
Data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) suggests the Great Lakes could remain ice-free for longer periods of time.
Changing climate, changing Great Lakes
Heavier rain storms are projected to increase as the impacts of climate change become more profound, according to NOAA. This increase becomes problematic to areas prone to flooding.
"The biggest issues facing the Great Lakes (are) an interplay between pollution and climate change," said Donald Uzarski, director of the CMU Institute of Great Lakes Research. "Climate change has drastically increased the occurrence and magnitude of extreme storm events causing excess runoff to enter the Great Lakes."
The runoff of pollutants plays a critical role in how invasive species, algal blooms, pollution and climate change are connected. According to Uzarski, invasive species are often able to take over an ecosystem because "nutrient pollution has artificially elevated primary productivity (algal blooms)."
Severe rainstorms and extreme precipitation events, like the rainstorm that affected Mount Pleasant this summer, are becoming more frequent. In late June, Central Michigan experienced severe flooding due to excessive rainfall that occurred during a concentrated amount of time - it rained very hard during a short amount of time and overwhelmed the infrastructure designed to handle stormwater.
On average, the city of Mount Pleasant receives about 32 in of precipitation a year. On June 22, it received 6.5 inches in less than 20 hours. On Aug. 2, President Donald Trump declared a state of disaster for Isabella, Midland, Gladwin and Bay counties.
"That is 20.3 percent of the annual precipitation in one day," Uzarski said.
The storm resulted in $6.1 million in damage in the city of Mount Pleasant. In Isabella, Midland, Gladwin and Bay counties, the storm caused more than $100 million in damages throughout Mid-Michigan. That total includes $21 million to public property and at least $10-$15 million in agriculture losses. Fifty-one buildings on Central Michigan University's campus were affected by the flooding. An estimate by the Facilities Management Administration placed the cost of on-campus damage between $7-10 million. Repairs were covered by the university's insurance.
While damage to private and public buildings can be cataloged and repaired, the damage done to the ecosystem of the Chippewa River is less easily measured.
"When that much water hits the landscape at once, it does not percolate into the water table but instead runs off into lakes and streams carrying massive amounts of pollution with it," Uzarski said.
Streams and rivers then deliver the pollution that's been introduced to the system into the Great Lakes. Much of the pollution that enters the streams are in the form of very soluble nitrogen. Increased levels of nitrogen can result in the excessive growth of algae and aquatic plants. When those organisms overtake the ecosystem they can block light to deeper water, effect oxygen levels and harm the food and habitat fish rely on.
While costal wetlands are still doing a good job of removing the added nitrogen, over 50 percent of the state's wetlands have been developed over and filled. When Uzarski and his research team took samples to test the water quality, about 80 percent of the wetlands they sampled were nitrogen limited.
Uzarski and his team are currently working on a paper that would explain their findings. He believes that nitrogen is going to be just as much of a problem as other nutrient pollutants, such as phosphorus. The nitrogen content in the lakes is so high that a reactive-oxygen species toxic to even algae was produced.
"We experimentally added phosphorus, we did not see an algal bloom. When we added nitrogen we did," Uzarski said. "That is, in these systems, it is the excess nitrogen causing algal blooms, not excess phosphorus yet the 2012 Water Quality Agreement does not even contain the word 'nitrogen' in it."
Algal blooms affect more than just fish habitat or recreation. In 2011, the city of Toledo issued a "Do Not Drink" advisory for more than 400,000 area residents served by Toledo Water. Chemical tests confirmed an increased, unsafe level an algal toxin in treated water.

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Expect more flooding in Central Michigan
Martin Baxter a meteorology professor at CMU who researches precipitation systems, believes Mount Pleasant will experience a more significant impact every time a heavy rainstorm move into the area because the Chippewa River is already prone to flooding.
The "tremendous" amount of water vapor present in the atmosphere and an uplift caused by a front is likely to have caused the flooding seen in Mount Pleasant.
"With the changing climate we're seeing warmer air masses that are able to hold more water vapor which can then potentially precipitate out into the heavy rainstorms we're seeing," Baxter said.
As the Earth's surface and its oceans warm, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere due to the increase in water evaporating from lakes, oceans and other reservoirs. Sea-surface temperatures today are the highest on record according to a State of The Climate report published in 2016 by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the American Meteorological Society (AMS).
Dry places will become even drier, Baxter said, as warmer temps lead to less vegetation that can hold in water. Humid places will become more moist as they warm, as warmer air can hold more water vapor.
"There are models now that are capable of predicting where something like this will happen," Baxter said. "The trouble is they aren't always accurate enough to give us the confidence to warn people of the potential impact of a storm like that."
This year Michigan experienced one of its warmest Septembers on record. The state also experienced one of its wettest Octobers, which Baxter said isn't a coincidence.
"There was a large warm and moist air mass caused by the evaporation over the Gulf (the Gulf of Mexico)," Baxter says. "There was no troughs or upper-level disturbances that could cause the air mass to lift and precipitate. You need to lift the air in order to get clouds to precipitate. In October two troughs were able to lift the air mass and cause rain."
Climate changing agriculture
Warmer weather brings changes to more than just the distribution of water, it can affect the demographics of plants and animals. Joanne Dannenhoffer a botany professor at CMU, said as Michigan becomes warmer and experiences increased rainfall, she expects these changes to alter the composition of Michigan's forests.
"Here in Mount Pleasant we live in a transition zone where the vegetation in the southern half of the state merges into the vegetation found in the northern half of the state," Dannenhoffer says. "With warmer weather there might be a change in the migration of the transition zone, to say, somewhere farther north like Gaylord."
According to the EPA populations of northern species such as paper birch, quaking aspen, balsam fir and black spruce may decline while oak, hickory and pine trees will increase.
"Plants have a general theme of adaptation, they've always been at the mercy of what happens in their environment," Dannenhoffer explained.
Dannenhoffer, who researches the kernel development of corn, says that increases in average temperatures could have both beneficial and harmful effects on farming in the state. The June flood ruined her research yield because crops, like corn, are intolerant to oversaturated soil caused by flooding.
"Corn doesn't do well in a lot of rain," Dannenhoffer said. "Flooding will affect the yield of corn and so will frequent hot days."
Michigan's lower peninsula, where most of its corn is grown, is likely to have five to 15 more hot days during the summer with temperatures above 95 degrees Fahrenheit. Though higher temperatures mean a longer growing season, it also increases risk for droughts can negatively impact the yield of corn and soybeans.
Union Township farmer Jerry Neyer said his corn and soybean fields took the hardest hit from the flooding which occurred in June. Unlike his fields of hay, which have a larger root mass beneath them, the ground covering the soybeans and corns is easily washed away. This is problematic because nutrients essential to the growth of these crops is washed away.
"In July, things looked pretty good, but in August, especially towards the end of August, you could see the crop was starting to slow down and running out of energy," Neyer said. "It just didn't finish out like it should - the corn was short, ears weren't fully-developed at all in some cases."
The severity of climate impacts are still uncertain despite the advancement in climate and weather models.
There lies certainty in the projection of rising global temperatures, however just how hot and how fast it will get by the end of the century and the impacts it'll have will be determined by time.
"I have kids and I hope to someday have grandkids," Kluver explained. "Some of these changes are going to happen no matter what we do and I want my kids and my grandkids to be okay. I'm a scientist and I look at the data and all of the numbers show what is happening and project what could potentially happen. I don't know how a responsible leader can ignore that."
 

scotto

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Great find Opie, so we have far more problems than just trying to regulate water levels in Lake Ontario? Time move to the escarpment?
Good to point out that by the time that we really find out the end result of climate change, most of us (including me) will be gone, but our grandchildren have to put up with the mess we make now.
 

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Thanks Scott

Not planning to move (house boat maybe ! ) but I will head over to Burlington and see if Lee Valley has any good building plans on how to build a dock, figuring there is about 4 more years left of the dune behind us before the lake is at the back gate?? I don't believe we will ever find out the answer regarding climate change, other than its happening and we need to adjust and plan ahead.

It is amazing the numerous articles I am finding regarding the great lakes and what changes that could occur, again it just makes me further question why Plan 2014 was put into place. I will keep on looking for more articles to post for all to read and perhaps explain more about what we will experience. Before we know it, March will be here and the fun starts all over again. Only good thing I am watching is Mother Nature is building a defensive ice wall on the shoreline, this is something we did not have last year. Maybe this can buy us some time and ease the early spring storms erosion to the beach before it melts.

Do you know if the owners of Hutch's have approached Hamilton Conservation or Mr Chad Collins regarding any barriers to be placed around their restaurant? Last year the spring storm surge's made its way onto the path in front of their restaurant. Now with less beach to protect them, the surge is more likely to reach further in land, also down by the Confederation Park path which saw some erosion too
 
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Written today from the Globe and Mail

This article tends to lean more on the IJC's side but still needs to be seen, as it touches on most events last year during the floods. If this does explore what could happen next, I then take it to read, what happened last year will repeat again this year and possibly again and again. It would also seem the IJC did take into account the extremes of "climate change" - "Plan 2014 allows adjustments for climate change both on the high and low ends of the scale. IJC officials warn flooding rains, like those last spring, or extended dry spells, such as the one that persisted from 1998 until 2013, could become more extreme". Now that statement has got me really scratching my head, everything I have read or come across makes no mention of dry spells, instead the complete opposite for the great lakes. There are areas around the globe which have been pegged to become more drought prone but the great lakes region was not one of them??? Anyways give it a read

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/new...ds-water-management-politics/article37511432/

What did we learn from 2017's floods in Quebec and Ontario? Inside the politics of water
Last year's record deluges along Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River pitted nations, communities and people apart over water management. Now, rising water levels are raising fears of what's coming this spring. Les Perreaux explores what happened last year and what could happen next
________________________________________
More below • 2017's floods by the numbers: A visual primer
________________________________________

Rick Blanchard walks along the shoreline of his property on Lake St. Lawrence, between Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. The nearby Moses-Saunders dam is used to regulate the water levels, and last year he was one of several people to question the water-management plan.
JUSTIN TANG/THE GLOBE AND MAIL
LES PERREAUX
MONTREAL
PUBLISHED 8 MINUTES AGOUPDATED JANUARY 5, 2018
It was in the dead of winter one year ago that Rick Blanchard, a waterfront property owner on Lake St. Lawrence - a small dam reservoir between Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River - noticed the water and ice outside his beachfront window was more than a metre higher than usual. The level downstream past the dam, he noted, was a bit lower than average. Mr. Blanchard made note of it on a sleepy water management Facebook page where he was one of about five people active in the winter months.
Wouldn't it make sense, Mr. Blanchard asked, to release more lake water into the St. Lawrence River before the unpredictable start of spring? No, the water management board's social media person answered. Slow water flow was needed to keep ice from breaking up, jamming and triggering a flood. Plus, new marching orders to regulate levels and flow just came into effect from a bilateral agency that regulates bodies of water along the Canada-U.S. border. Discretionary changes were not allowed until "extreme conditions" arrived.
Things got extreme. In the spring, constant record-breaking rainfall, rapid snow melt and high water levels on the other Great Lakes would flood hundreds of private properties and public infrastructure around Lake Ontario. That water would combine with the raging Ottawa River to cause far greater devastation in Quebec, where 5,371 homes were flooded.
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Nine months later, the total damage still has yet to be tallied. The Quebec government held a forum just before Christmas where mayors and flood victims complained of slow inspections, lagging decisions and the slow flow of compensation. Provincial disaster relief and insurance claims are expected to cost more than half-a-billion dollars in Quebec alone.
The controversy over water management and the record floods of 2017 pitted the interests of Americans against Canadians, experts against politicians, and property owners against each other, not to mention shipping companies and shoreline wildlife. This winter, with water levels persistently higher than average, shoreline residents are looking warily to spring and the uncertainty that comes with every spring melt and rain season.

May 9: Patrice Pepin walks along a barrier of sandbags holding back the Ottawa River's waters at the home of his brother Christian Pepin and wife Marie-Pierre Chalifoux in Saint-Andre-d'Argenteuil, 90 kilometres west of Montreal.
DARIO AYALA/THE GLOBE AND MAIL

May 6: The Ottawa River crashes past a warning sign at the Chaudière Falls in Ottawa.
JUSTIN TANG/THE CANADIAN PRESS

May 7: Martin Gervais works to get a pump's hose flowing again as water crashes against a rock wall at a home in Rockland, Ont., about 40 kilometres east of Ottawa.
JUSTIN TANG/THE CANADIAN PRESS

May 10: Gatineau, Que. Nine months after the devastating floods, the total damage has yet to be tallied.
SEAN KILPATRICK/THE CANADIAN PRESS

May 10: A flooded street in Gatineau, Que. By the flood's end, some 5,371 homes in the province of Quebec were flooded.

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SEAN KILPATRICK/THE CANADIAN PRESS
Last winter, Mr. Blanchard's reasonable and polite question was the first of hundreds that would follow from enraged, flooded property owners - particularly Americans whose waterfront Lake Ontario properties were underwater or eroding away with every windblown wave. Many demanded the flood gates be open even though entire neighbourhoods downstream in Canada were underwater, discounting the fact every centimetre of water level released from Lake Ontario would push the St. Lawrence River 10 centimetres higher.
Mr. Blanchard, a boating enthusiast, is retired and lives with his wife Helen just upstream from the lone dam near Cornwall, Ont., that controls some of the water flowing from Lake Ontario into the St. Lawrence River. The International Great Lakes - St. Lawrence River Board uses the Moses-Saunders dam to try to balance interests of waterfront property owners, shipping companies, pleasure boaters, municipal and industrial water users, power companies and wetlands.
"A lot of people think just about themselves. It's human nature, I guess," said Mr. Blanchard, a Canadian who admitted he, too, was looking after his own interests last winter as he worried about the sand on his beach washing away.
To counteract local self-interest, Canada and the United States created the International Joint Commission (IJC) in 1909, an independent agency to regulate shared water bodies and settle disputes, along with the board that manages Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence.
The board consists mainly of scientists from the Canadian government and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, along with other appointees. Year round, they meet weekly to decide how much water to let through the dam.
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For some people, especially in the United States, the blame for last year's floods landed on the IJC, the board and a new set of rules they created called Plan 2014 (which actually launched Jan. 1, 2017).
The new plan updated 54-year-old regulations and is designed to allow more variation in water levels to improve the health of wetlands. Several species of turtle, for example, are threatened if water can't fluctuate to create marshes and sandbars. The IJC says the plan will also boost hydro-electricity generation, maintain better levels for navigation and extend the recreational boating season. Water managers are allowed to veer from the plan to deal with emergency situations like last year's flooding, but still many blamed Plan 2014 for setting the stage for flood.
When Mr. Blanchard questioned water levels last February, flooding wasn't on the horizon. Rain, snowfall and inflows from the other Great Lakes were normal. The Moses-Saunders dam was allowing 7,300 cubic metres per second through - just slightly more than the usual flow in recent years.
Over the next 60 days, rain all around Lake Ontario would wash out records. Water rose rapidly on the Great Lakes and also the Ottawa River - the river that streams along the border of Ontario and Quebec and flows into the St. Lawrence just west of Montreal. This area would be the epicentre of the Quebec flood zone. Desperate to help contain flooding, the board cut back the flow of Lake Ontario water on May 8 to 6,200 cubic metres per second.
June 2, 2017: High waters surround a lifeguard stand at Ward's Island Beach in Toronto. The city closed access to much of the Toronto Islands last summer as heavy rains and a rising Lake Ontario created flooding. DEBORAH BAIC/THE GLOBE AND MAIL
The Toronto Islands and the New York shore of Lake Ontario then flooded with high waters that persisted into August. The gates on the Moses-Saunders dam were opened steadily as the floods receded in Quebec. By Aug. 8, the dam allowed through 10,400 cubic metres per second, the highest volume ever and nearly twice the average flow of the three cascades that make up Niagara Falls.
For comparison, flow at the dam never surpassed 8,600 cubic metres per second in 2016.
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In the U.S., experts weighed in: Spring rainfall and water levels on other Great Lakes broke records and made flooding unavoidable. "These waters have humiliated officials who have tried to harness and manipulate them for hundreds of years," said Peter Annin, author of The Great Lakes Water Wars and head of an American freshwater institute. "In years like this there's not much people can do no matter what plan is in effect. Relief for one community harms another community.
"There are no simple solutions."
The floods would expose a vast gulf between the political cultures of the two countries. In the United States, the flooding featured political leaders who put local property rights above downstream and environmental effects. Open the floodgates, they demanded, with little regard for what it would do to millions of people in the St. Lawrence River valley. Republican congressman Chris Collins and Democrat New York Governor Andrew Cuomo led the chorus.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo delivers his state of the state address in Albany, N.Y., on Jan. 3, 2018. HANS PENNINK/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Republican congressman Chris Collins, right, sits beside U.S. President Donald Trump at a meeting at the White House on Feb. 16, 2017. EVAN VUCCI/ASSOCIATED PRESS
The IJC "blew it. I don't see how you can debate that," Mr. Cuomo told local reporters May 29 after touring the flooded areas of New York. "I understand they have a lot of concerns they have to deal with, they're dealing with Canada and Montreal and the St. Lawrence. I represent the people of the State of New York, and the people of the State of New York are getting the short end of the stick, right?"
Mr. Cuomo announced $27-million in aid for several hundred homeowners who suffered damage. By comparison, Quebec alone set up a $350-million fund to cover costs to public infrastructure and emergency aid to more than 5,000 homeowners. Several hundred homes were also flooded along the Ottawa River on the Ontario and Quebec sides. The Insurance Bureau of Canada reported $223-million in insured losses in the two provinces.
It's important to note that while Canada suffered 70 times greater financial losses than the U.S., Canadian politicians took a different tack.
The same water that flooded New York State swamped the Toronto Islands, closing them to recreational use for much of the summer and causing at least $5-million in damage and millions more in lost revenue for local businesses. Mr. Tory simply noted it was "mother nature at work."
On his many tours of flood zones in Montreal former mayor Denis Coderre blamed the rain, and did not criticize Plan 2014 or regulators. David Heurtel, then Quebec's environment minister, endorsed Plan 2014 and the board's work saying it is a "good example of balance between environmental, economic and social considerations."
Gordon Walker, a lawyer and the Canadian co-chair of the IJC, said Americans seemed to have misconceptions about the new plan.
He said the management board was operating on an emergency basis to try to save property through the spring. Plan 2014 had no effect on the disaster situation, nor did political considerations, he said.
"We have political people making a lot of noise and criticizing us for what we did or didn't do, but it's just on one side of the border," said Mr. Walker. "On the other side, hardly a word was uttered about Plan 2014 and I daresay more homes were inundated on the Canadian side."
Rigaud, Que., shown on May 8, was one of the worst-damaged towns by last year's floods. PAUL CHIASSON/THE CANADIAN

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Rigaud, a small bedroom community about an hour's drive west of Montreal, was one of the hardest hit towns with about 500 of 3,000 homes damaged. Hans Gruenwald Jr., the frank-speaking mayor of the town, said there's no "magic wand to make the water go away."
"I'm not going to start blaming anyone else, the water was there and it had to go somewhere," the mayor said.
His biggest problem these days is processing 273 outstanding files and convincing people to move from low-lying areas likely to flood again in an era of climate change and unpredictable weather.
Water and shoreline managers and local officials share the same problem up and down the St. Lawrence and on Lake Ontario, especially in the United States. "People are willing to kill to live on the waterfront," Mr. Guenwald said.
Céline Hardy and her husband Serge Kelly gave up. Their address at 5366 des Macons, in Pierrefonds, a Montreal suburb, was the first to be condemned. There will be no rebuilding on their lot sitting in an area that historically floods at least every 20 years, known as a zero-to-20 flood zone.
For 27 years the basement flooded regularly in spring and two big sump pumps kept their home from being damaged. They moved to a new house on higher ground in another suburb, Salaberry-de-Valleyfield.
The couple should receive the maximum $200,000 for their lost home, plus $130,000 for the land, plus thousands more for demolition, lost furniture and other replacement costs.
"At first I felt like I should fight, but now I've made my peace with it," Ms. Hardy said. "Holding on doesn't do anything. For us it's over."
Quebec has had a mixed record on moving flood victims out of flood zones. Some 600 homes from the 2017 flood are total losses that will not be rebuilt; another 860 houses in the old neighbourhoods of Gatineau and Deux-Montagnes, a Montreal bedroom community, received exemptions that will allow people to rebuild following stricter building codes.
History in Ontario, however, shows how effective it can be to take a harder line on rebuilding in flood zones.
Oct. 18, 1954: Waterlogged homes and farms along the flooded Holland River in the aftermath of Hurricane Hazel. ENVIRONMENT CANADA
In 1954 intense rainfall from Hurricane Hazel caused flash flooding in Toronto, killing 81 people. To prevent future disasters, Ontario introduced stricter rules than most jurisdictions on building close to water.
"Hurricane Hazel in the 1950s basically established a line below which it is considered flood plain and people were not allowed to build without certain flood-proof measures. Governments took major steps to make sure areas prone to flooding would not be impacted," Mr. Walker, the IJC co-chair, said.
As global warming makes high and low water levels more difficult to predict, a fundamental shift in thinking is essential, states Rachel Havrelock, founder of the Freshwater Lab at the University of Illinois at Chicago and an expert on global water conflict.
"We can't act as if lakefront property is sacrosanct and that the job of our water agencies is to just manage people's investments," Dr. Havrelock said.
"We need to get rid of lawns that end at the water. There are waterfront places from which people need to retreat. I don't want to pretend this isn't painful, but this system of private property on public waters has not been a good water management strategy. In some cases people just need to swap out their land and they need to be repurposed as wetlands."
Many critics of Plan 2014 point to its goal of allowing a wider range of water levels to improve wetlands as the source of their flooding troubles. The maximum water level at normal wet times will be six centimetres higher than the old plan. Plan 2014 predicts ongoing erosion damage of about $25-million per year to lakeshore property - up $2.5-million per year from the previous plan.
"It's not simply coincidence that these record levels are being surpassed during the first year of Plan 2014's implementation," U.S. congressman Chris Collins wrote this summer in a letter attempting to rally Congress to reopen the plan.
Mr. Walker said the launch of Plan 2014 occurring at the same time as the floods is a coincidence, and the real problem is New York State officials. "They permit people to build on sandbars and think nothing of it. It's a terrible situation," Mr. Walker said. "We didn't authorize them to go there, and it's not our job to tell them not to go there. Our job is to deal with water and balance interests as much as we can. There's only so much we can do."
Water levels on the Great Lakes tend to work on a 12-year cycle. For about six years the waters usually rise and for about six more they fall, according to experts.
Plan 2014 allows adjustments for climate change both on the high and low ends of the scale. IJC officials warn flooding rains, like those last spring, or extended dry spells, such as the one that persisted from 1998 until 2013, could become more extreme.
No one knows how long a new wet cycle might persist, according to Mr. Annin, co-director of the Mary Griggs Burke Centre for Freshwater Innovation at Northland College in Ashland, Wis. "We are entering a period of weather unpredictability and insecurity. These kinds of rapid changes in water level may be the new normal."
Mr. Annin said the politicization of water is not unusual and the governor of New York is "doing his job, making it clear to his constituents he cares." But politicians should dial back criticism, he said, because "this might be only a taste of what's to come in the future."
The key to avoiding escalating water conflict is to allow the IJC to use its expertise to decide the best way forward free from politics, he said: "This is the entire reason it was created."
 

Opie

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good morning
more news around the lake concerning current ice coverage
surface temp by the channel is 40 F as of Saturday Jan 6,2018

click on the below link for full pictures

http://woodtv.com/blog/2018/01/05/great-lakes-ice-cover-water-levels-and-news-2/

Great Lakes Ice cover has made a dramatic jump in the last 10 days and particularly in the last 24 hours, jumping from 22% to 28%. Lake Erie, the shallowest of the Great Lakes leads the list with a 77.6% ice cover. That should shut down much (but not all) of the lake-effect snow coming off that lake. BTW, not all of the ice is solid ice. They count "crushed ice" floating on the surface. Lake Michigan is up to a 27.9% ice cover. The ice is in Green Bay, up west of the Mackinac Bridge and along the shoreline of the lake. Lake Superior, the deepest of the Great Lakes, has a 12.3% ice cover. Lake Ontario has a 13.1% ice cover and Lake Huron has a 37.7% ice cover, much of that in Saginaw Bay and and the North Channel. Lake St. Clair has a 97.8% ice cover. The ice breakers have been keeping a path open for ships to move through the lake.
These two pictures were taken 3 minutes apart. It's a classic example of lake-effect. The first picture shows a sunny Chicago. The second shows the lake-effect snow falling across the lake at South Haven, Michigan. Most of the snow across the Great Lakes has been lake-effect. Milwaukee has had only 4.9″ of snow this winter. On the other side of the lake, Muskegon has had 60.8″. Snowfall diminishes as you go east. Grand Rapids has a season snowfall of 36.7″ and Lansing has recorded just 18″ this winter.
This is the Lake Michigan satellite pic. from Friday PM, showing the clear skies and snow-covered ground in Wisconsin and N. Illinois and the cloiuds over the open water of Lake Michigan. It looks like Green Lake and the west part of Geneva Lake iced over Thurs. night in Wisconsin.
Water levels of all the Great Lakes are well above average levels and significantly higher than one year ago. Lake Superior has now tied 1986 for highest water level ever in January. The (relatively) rapid expansion of surface ice can slow evaporation, but the very cold pattern has greatly limited synoptic (not lake-effect) precipitation over the past few weeks.
This is a pic. of the ice t S. Haven Fri. PM. The band of snow was in the darker clouds as you look off to the west. The water level of Lake Superior is down 2″ in the last month, but is 8″ above the level of one year ago and now 15″ above the January average. Lake Michigan/Huron is down 3″ in the last month, but up 11″ year-to-year. The lakes are 18″ above the Jan. average. Lake Erie is down 2″ in the last month, up 7″ in the last year and the lake is now 14″ above the Jan. average. Lake Ontario is down 2″ in the last month, up 9″ year-to-year and is 8″ above the Jan. average level. Lake St. Clair gained one inch in the last month and 10″ in the last year. Lake St. Clair is now 20″ above the century average. The volume moving down the rivers that connect the Great Lakes is above average for all the rivers. The St. Clair River at Port Huron MI shows a volume of 166,000 cfs compared to an average of 130,000 cfs.
This is the "Hollyhock", a Coast Guard ice breaker breaking up the ice on Lake Huron (from the USCG facebook page).
 

scotto

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That was a good article from the Globe, this is another from the CBC about the town of Hudson, Quebec, which is located close to the end of the St. Lawrence where you would think that the flooding problem would finally be done and on it's way to the Atlantic.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/hudson-flood-zone-development-1.4472439

In wake of flooding, Hudson mayor aims to curb waterfront development


Mayor confident bylaw to restrict new builds on 100-year flood zone will pass.



Hudson residents are already preparing for the risk of more flooding and the city is too, with its plan to limit construction on the waterfront.
Hudson's new mayor, Jamie Nicholls, said the regulation is a way of "managing risk."
"Under a regime of climate change, we're told by scientists that this could possibly get worse," he said.
A proposed town bylaw would extend the current restrictions on where developers can build to a 100-year zone, areas that have a one-in-100 chance of flooding every year.

Provincial law doesn't allow for building on 20-year-flood zones, areas that have a one-in-20 chance of flooding every year.
Last spring, Hudson was one of many Quebec cities to suffer from extreme flooding. Montreal declared a state of emergency as people were forced from their homes and others frantically worked to protect their property with sandbags and sump pumps.
Hudson resident Derek Halbert said he had to use a canoe to get from his home to the street during the floods.

He said developers who wanted to build on an area called Sandy Beach, which is on the 100-year flood zone, have already agreed to move the development elsewhere.

The proposed bylaw would also follow public consultations with residents.
"The prudent approach is to have those natural flood plains like we have back here on Sandy Beach, and preserve those and keep them as natural areas," Laws said.
Hudson still looking to grow
Despite future restrictions on where developers can build, Hudson is open to adding more homes, as long as they're built in a responsible way, the mayor said.
Hudson has a population of 5,100. That number could climb to 7,000 over the next decade.
"Basically, it's been done in other jurisdiction in North America and it's considered best practice in sustainable development. So, it's kind of a no-brainer," Nicholls said.

More;
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/flooding-worse-monday-quebec-may-2017-1.4104120

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/building-on-flood-plains-goodale-1.4107474

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/flooding-federal-response-sandbags-1.4104283


Last note, the water level in the canal doesn't appear to have moved in the last couple of weeks, won't be long before we see it coming back up again.
 

Opie

Registered User
Staff member
Mar 1, 2017
318
119
43
The Beach Strip
Good morning,

Wednesday January 10th, the average level is at 74.81 M


The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.6 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2007, January lake level average was 74.63 M - 2017 data has yet to be updated to the charts

Next reading date is Friday January 26th


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
July 22 - 75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18 - 75.47
Sept 1 - 75.28
Sept 15 - 75.12
Sept 29 - 74.99
Oct 10 - 74.95
Oct 27 - 74.83
Nov 9 - 74.929
Nov 24 - 74.89
Dec 8 - 74.795
Dec 27 - 74.71

News from around the lake

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-flood-repair-delay-1.4479580

Toronto's waterfront parks suffered more than $7.4 million worth of flood damage last summer, but this year's budget punts most of the repair work into the future.
The preliminary budget only includes $2 million to fix flood damage, with the rest of the work being put off until at least 2019, according to city documents.
• Leuty Lifeguard Station is being raised to save it from lake damage
"That's not good enough," said Coun. Paula Fletcher, whose ward includes the Port Lands and the Leslie Street Spit.
Fletcher says she'll push for the entire amount - money documents say would be spent on everything from repairing paths to adding permanent water pumps on Toronto's islands - to be included in this year's financial plans, which are currently being debated at public events across the city.
Lake Ontario hit its highest levels in 100 years last spring, creating problems across the length of the city's waterfront while also severely damaging the islands. The flooding began with April's snowmelt and was made worse by an exceptionally rainy spring. By May 27, the lake was 43 centimetres above its pre-flood level.

Both the city and TRCA officials will be doing repair work. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)
Parks, Forestry and Recreation officials declined an interview about the budget shortfall, although the documents point out several emergency projects were completed last year along with the Toronto Region Conservation Authority (TRCA).
"Staff continue to work on determining the full extent of the damage and remediation costs," parks spokesperson Jane Arbour said in an email statement.
That complete list of damages isn't expected until fall of 2018, at which time staff also hope to present a series of flood mitigation strategies, although Mayor John Tory's executive committee is expected to get more information at its next meeting.
Some repair projects already complete
However, some steps are being taken in case this is another wet summer. In December, the city spent $200,000 to raise the Leuty Lifeguard Station, a Beach icon, by more than a metre.

The city did move the Leuty Lifeguard Station this winter to protect it from potentially high lake levels in the future. (Talia Ricci / CBC News)
Nancy Gaffney, TRCA's waterfront specialist, says many priority projects - the ones people would notice at places like Humber Bay Park, Marie Curtis Park, Woodbine Beach and the Scarborough Bluffs - have actually been completed, even though some had to wait until early October when the water levels finally receded enough to expose some of the damage.
Still, there's work to be done.
"There are a few parks that have shoreline issues," she said.

The city hasn't come up with a full list of everything that was damaged during the flooding. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press)
The shoreline repairs, Gaffney says, may take more time to do. Some work will have to wait until the spring, when scuba divers can get in the water and inspect eroding shores near Bluffer's Park and along the western Beaches breakwall.
"We want to make sure that we're not just doing band-aid fixes everywhere," Gaffney said.
Toronto's waterfront the 'cottage' of the city
Gaffney says the TRCA and city are working together on budgeting to pay for these fixes. Fletcher says she'll be asking questions about why the full $7 million isn't in this year's budget.
"The beaches and the waterfront are the cottages for people that can't have cottages," she said.
"You can always go to the island, you can go to the beach, you can spend the day in our beautiful city."
If you live near Toronto's waterfront, or on the island, and are seeing damage still there after last spring's flood please contact reporter John Rieti at john.rieti@cbc.ca.
 
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