"We are at the mercy of the weather"
What is not clear nor explained well enough in the article below, is why the IJC is allowing the largest discharge from Lake Ontario which is a record for this time of the year. Don't get me wrong, I am for getting the lake level down fast in preparation for spring but these actions of the IJC contravene Plan 2014, in my opinion.
Following the below article, I will post another article from last October where an IJC board member Dr. Frank Sciremammano, Jr. who is very critical of Plan 2014, took the unusual position of acting a citizen during a public hearing on the Lake flooding, to voice his disdain for Plan 2014. In it we find out that under the new plan IJC cannot deviate or change the lake level until a "trigger" happens- meaning the lake level has to hit a certain low or high. The previous plan allowed the IJC to intervene if they saw fit. So where I am confused is, why is the IJC now trying to lower the lake when the level is 7" below the trigger.? This would mean intervention when the plan does not warrant it therefore a contravene of Plan 2014, no ?
Also the second article lets Dr. Frank Sciremammano, Jr go on about how it does favour Montreal, courtesy or our Canadian Govt and the Province of Quebec. Which if accurate, further leaves me with a bad taste of the IJC Canadian contingent. If Montreal and the surrounding regions have allowed habitation on a natural flood plain, then this bottle neck in the outflow needs to be removed not protected.
http://www.lockportjournal.com/news...cle_cf95f03a-e4a9-532b-a189-bf720bb276a6.html
Assessing high Lake Ontario levels
ENVIRONMENT: Noting lake levels are currently 1 foot higher than average, stakeholders debate possible impacts come spring.
• By Tim Fenster
tim.fenster@lockportjournal.com
• 14 hrs ago
•
Even in the midst of a brutal winter, those who live or work along Lake Ontario await the arrival of spring with some dread.
Lake Ontario is currently 13 inches above its long-term average, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. What's more, the lake is 7 inches higher than at this time last year - a year that set record-high water levels after the spring thaw and heavy rain.
That extra three feet of water on the lake left thousands of landowners with repair bills in the tens and even hundreds of thousands of dollars. Most are still waiting for state relief funding; many wonder whether it will arrive at all.
Elected officials are also raising concern. Within the past week, both Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Rep. Chris Collins mentioned lake levels in letters seeking financial and technical support from ACE.
But those charged with monitoring and regulating lake levels say these concerns are very premature.
Keith Koralewski, a technical advisor for ACE, said precipitation is the main force that drives high lake levels, as was the case in 2017.
"We've been trying to relay the message that current lake levels are not an indication of what we're going to see in spring," Koralewski said. "It's the precipitation that we see in the coming weeks and months that will be the driving force. There's just no way of knowing whether it's going to be wet or dry."
Flooding on the scale of last year is a possibility, but an unlikely one.
The International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board recently released a graphic forecasting probability of catastrophically high lake levels - or, conversely, extremely low levels. Using data on lake level fluctuations from 1900 to 2008, the board set percentages of probability for several outcomes.
If the next five months rank in the top 5 percent for precipitation, lake levels could reach up to 248 feet. (Last year, water levels peaked at just under 249 feet.) If the next five months' precipitation rank in the bottom 5 percent for precipitation, the lake could fall to about 245 feet.
And if precipitation follows the exact average of the last 108 years, by early June it will be exactly on average.
"We don't know what the weeks ahead will be, so we use historical data to give us a guide," Koralewski said.
Koralewski added that last year's precipitation was, historically, off the chart.
"Last year was even more than a 1 percent (probability)," Koralewski said. "It was even more like a 0.2 percent."
In another graphic, the board claimed that from January to May of last year, precipitation hit record highs in five cities scattered throughout the Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River basins. Rochester received 19.96 inches, up from a record of 17.76 inches set in 1950. Toronto received 17.67 inches, up one millimeter from a record set in 1942. Ottawa got 21.54 inches (up from 20.71 inches, set in 1916), Montreal got 22.76 inches (up from 20.83 inches, set in 1926) and so forth.
Some shoreline resident advocacy groups have contested precipitation figures from lake level regulators and blame water level regulation criteria outlined in Plan 2014, which was implemented early last year.
Tony McKenna, a civil engineer who worked on a five-year study preceding Plan 2014, said that under the new plan the board cannot make deviations in outflows to account for additional water on the lake, as was the case under the previous plan, called 1958DD. Water levels are regulated by dams in the St. Lawrence River between the lake's outlet and Montreal.
"Last year this time, we were a few inches above long-term average," McKenna said. "It's certainly not encouraging to have it this high, this year, and not have a way (for the board) to protect us. ... We're at the mercy of the weather."
Even though the lake is 13 inches above average, it is still more than 7 inches below the new trigger point at which the board is authorized to deviate from Plan 2014.
McKenna and other Plan 2014 critics say that if the board had the freedom to increase outflows free of the trigger points, last year's flooding would have been far less severe.
"Under Plan 2014, the control board has zero power to do anything. ... It's scary when you think about it, because we're a foot above average now," McKenna said.
But Koralewski said Plan 2014 sets outflows based on water levels, and that the board's current operations are similar to that of the old plan.
"Most likely we'd be running very similar outflows (under the old plan) to what we'd be doing now," he said.
What's more, the current outflows of nearly 312,500 cubic feet per second are a record for this time of year, Koralewski said. And for the past four weeks, outflows have remained consistently far higher than they were in 2016 and 2017.
Early last year, the board had to sharply reduce outflows numerous times because frequent thaws prevented the formation of a stable ice cover. High outflows coupled with a weak ice cover can cause ice jams, which leads to flooding.
This year, Koralewski said, a stable ice cover formed in early January, allowing the board to set higher outflows.
Only time will tell if conditions stay as favorable in the coming months.
"Hopefully we'll continue to have some drier weather and colder weather, and that helps us as far as reducing the amount of impacts on the lake," Koralewski said.