Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

scotto

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Not much that I can add to that good reading. By looking at the rail in the canal, it seems that the lake level has actually gone down slightly, so it will interesting to see the February 9th reading considering we were almost a foot higher from the January average.

Although we have winds out of the west, the looks to be just few inches higher than in my racoon picture on the rail picture from August 2016.



Edit;
From today, I was hoping that the waves would slow down a bit more;

 

Opie

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Not much that I can add to that good reading. By looking at the rail in the canal, it seems that the lake level has actually gone down slightly, so it will interesting to see the February 9th reading considering we were almost a foot higher from the January average.

Although we have winds out of the west, the looks to be just few inches higher than in my racoon on the rail picture from August 2016.

Edit;
From today, I was hoping that the waves would slow down a bit more;

Keen eye Scott !
Mind you, you have an excellent vantage spot as does your little racoon, as she admires her reflection.

The lake is down a little from the last read, we will see come this Friday how much. However the lake being this high so early on is not comforting especially knowing that the lake is higher now than at this time last year.

I have posted a couple of these feel good about the IJC stories from the Democrat and Chronicle before; just so we have a balance of for and against PLAN 2014. The Democrat and Chronicle seems to be the only one consistently for the IJC and Plan 2014. Just wish they would get their facts straight before throwing more of the support for the Army corps of Engineers and IJC.

They used 2012 water level as comparison for why we should not worry. Bunk ! What they omitted to use in the calculations or see in their “analysis of historic lake-level data” , was the fact that the great lakes basin was in a decade long drought. In fact the next year ( 2013) saw the lowest ever levels for Lakes Huron and Michigan. At the tail end of a decade long drought there is not much in the way of water inventory in the lake basin to flow down to Lake Ontario, so yes by spring 2012 the lake was returning to normal low normal water levels. This is not the case for 2018, the other lakes are near record levels now, hence the current high water Lake Ontario has now and will continue to have until the other lakes levels decline. Three things can alter the course or lessen the damage. Increase the out flow from Lake Ontario, decrease the discharge for Lake Superior and flood them out and finally pray for a drought this spring and summer.



https://www.democratandchronicle.co...-lake-ontario-shoreline-protection/307580002/

State asks feds for extra Lake Ontario shoreline protection
Steve Orr, @SOrr1 Published 3:01 p.m. ET Feb. 5, 2018 | Updated 5:50 p.m. ET Feb. 5, 2018
CLOSE
High winds created strong waves that smashed into the pier on Sodus Point Monday, creating quite the spectacle. Max Schulte
CONNECTTWEETLINKEDINCOMMENTEMAILMORE
Gov. Andrew Cuomo, fearful of more flooding on the Lake Ontario shoreline, has asked federal officials to build more protective bulwarks.
Officials at the Army Corps of Engineers are considering the request, a spokesman said Monday.
Cuomo sent a letter to the Corps of Engineers Saturday asking the agency to install extra protection along as many as 90 stretches of the Lake Ontario and Lake Erie shorelines, including 13 locations in Monroe County.
The protection, meant to be relatively temporary, might involve placement of rocks, boulders, earth or other structures to break up or hold back waves.
The governor invoked a particular Corps program that is meant to help with demonstrable risks posed by natural disasters that are foreseen in advance.
Cuomo's letter referenced the months-long flooding of the Lake Ontario shoreline last spring and summer, and asserted "there is a serious threat for renewed coastal flooding in 2018."
What wasn't clear Monday was if the Corps would agree that shoreline flooding is both foreseeable and imminent. If they do not agree, they could reject the request.
The lake level has been roughly a foot above the long-term average since late last fall. Partly that is by design; the new lake-level regulatory plan calls for higher water in early winter than had been the case before.
Releases from the lake have been stepped up to record levels for this time of year, though the lake level likely will remain above the long-term average for some time.
Many shoreline residents see the elevated level as evidence that history will repeat itself this spring, but flooding is by no means certain despite the current level.

'Achilles' heel' emerges in lake-level plan

Since lake-level regulation began in 1960, there have been 12 years when the January level was higher than it was this year. Significant springtime flooding followed in four of those years but did not occur in the other eight, according to a Democrat and Chronicle analysis of historic lake-level data.
In 2012, for instance, the lake was slighter higher in January than it was this year. By May, the water was half a foot below normal. By autumn, shoreline property owners complained angrily that the lake was too low.
The request from Cuomo is separate from a request by various officials that the Corps obtain funding to conduct a study of ways to make the Great Lakes shoreline more resilient in a time of high water and climate change.

Senators: Study Great Lakes shoreline flooding

There was talk of using the Corps' Advance Measures program on the Lake Ontario shore last year. But that idea was set aside but the circumstances were wrong — the flooding was the result of record-setting spring rainfall and was not foreseen in advance.
But there is a precedent for use of the Corps' Advance Measures program along the Lake Ontario shoreline.
In late 1972, after several years of high water on the Great Lakes, Corps officials publicly predicted that flooding would hit Great Lakes shorelines in the coming months.
They turned out to be right. Severe flooding afflicted the Lake Ontario shore in 1973, with very high water occurring again in 1974.
But the impact was lessened by hurried work undertaken by the Corps in 1973. The agency spent the equivalent of $150 million in today's dollars throughout the Great Lakes.
Along the Lake Ontario shoreline, the agency paid to install gabions — baskets of large stones that serve as breakwalls — in numerous locations, including 11 in Monroe County.
The protection was supposed to last only until the immediate flood risk subsided, but some of the gabions remained intact until being battered and broken in last year's record-high water.
Some of the same locales are among the stretches of shoreline nominated by the state for protective work.
Much of the lakeshore identified by the state is privately owned and lined with summer cottages and year-round homes, though a number of state parks, roads and other public facilities also are listed. The entire length of the Lake Ontario State Parkway is included, for instance.
Seventeen of the listed locations are on Lake Erie in Chautauqua and Erie counties. Cuomo's letter makes no mention of Lake Erie, which was 14 inches above its long-term average in January.
 

Opie

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"We are at the mercy of the weather"

What is not clear nor explained well enough in the article below, is why the IJC is allowing the largest discharge from Lake Ontario which is a record for this time of the year. Don't get me wrong, I am for getting the lake level down fast in preparation for spring but these actions of the IJC contravene Plan 2014, in my opinion.

Following the below article, I will post another article from last October where an IJC board member Dr. Frank Sciremammano, Jr. who is very critical of Plan 2014, took the unusual position of acting a citizen during a public hearing on the Lake flooding, to voice his disdain for Plan 2014. In it we find out that under the new plan IJC cannot deviate or change the lake level until a "trigger" happens- meaning the lake level has to hit a certain low or high. The previous plan allowed the IJC to intervene if they saw fit. So where I am confused is, why is the IJC now trying to lower the lake when the level is 7" below the trigger.? This would mean intervention when the plan does not warrant it therefore a contravene of Plan 2014, no ?

Also the second article lets Dr. Frank Sciremammano, Jr go on about how it does favour Montreal, courtesy or our Canadian Govt and the Province of Quebec. Which if accurate, further leaves me with a bad taste of the IJC Canadian contingent. If Montreal and the surrounding regions have allowed habitation on a natural flood plain, then this bottle neck in the outflow needs to be removed not protected.



http://www.lockportjournal.com/news...cle_cf95f03a-e4a9-532b-a189-bf720bb276a6.html
Assessing high Lake Ontario levels
ENVIRONMENT: Noting lake levels are currently 1 foot higher than average, stakeholders debate possible impacts come spring.
• By Tim Fenster tim.fenster@lockportjournal.com
• 14 hrs ago

Even in the midst of a brutal winter, those who live or work along Lake Ontario await the arrival of spring with some dread.
Lake Ontario is currently 13 inches above its long-term average, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. What's more, the lake is 7 inches higher than at this time last year - a year that set record-high water levels after the spring thaw and heavy rain.
That extra three feet of water on the lake left thousands of landowners with repair bills in the tens and even hundreds of thousands of dollars. Most are still waiting for state relief funding; many wonder whether it will arrive at all.
Elected officials are also raising concern. Within the past week, both Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Rep. Chris Collins mentioned lake levels in letters seeking financial and technical support from ACE.
But those charged with monitoring and regulating lake levels say these concerns are very premature.
Keith Koralewski, a technical advisor for ACE, said precipitation is the main force that drives high lake levels, as was the case in 2017.
"We've been trying to relay the message that current lake levels are not an indication of what we're going to see in spring," Koralewski said. "It's the precipitation that we see in the coming weeks and months that will be the driving force. There's just no way of knowing whether it's going to be wet or dry."
Flooding on the scale of last year is a possibility, but an unlikely one.
The International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board recently released a graphic forecasting probability of catastrophically high lake levels - or, conversely, extremely low levels. Using data on lake level fluctuations from 1900 to 2008, the board set percentages of probability for several outcomes.
If the next five months rank in the top 5 percent for precipitation, lake levels could reach up to 248 feet. (Last year, water levels peaked at just under 249 feet.) If the next five months' precipitation rank in the bottom 5 percent for precipitation, the lake could fall to about 245 feet.
And if precipitation follows the exact average of the last 108 years, by early June it will be exactly on average.
"We don't know what the weeks ahead will be, so we use historical data to give us a guide," Koralewski said.
Koralewski added that last year's precipitation was, historically, off the chart.
"Last year was even more than a 1 percent (probability)," Koralewski said. "It was even more like a 0.2 percent."
In another graphic, the board claimed that from January to May of last year, precipitation hit record highs in five cities scattered throughout the Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River basins. Rochester received 19.96 inches, up from a record of 17.76 inches set in 1950. Toronto received 17.67 inches, up one millimeter from a record set in 1942. Ottawa got 21.54 inches (up from 20.71 inches, set in 1916), Montreal got 22.76 inches (up from 20.83 inches, set in 1926) and so forth.
Some shoreline resident advocacy groups have contested precipitation figures from lake level regulators and blame water level regulation criteria outlined in Plan 2014, which was implemented early last year.
Tony McKenna, a civil engineer who worked on a five-year study preceding Plan 2014, said that under the new plan the board cannot make deviations in outflows to account for additional water on the lake, as was the case under the previous plan, called 1958DD. Water levels are regulated by dams in the St. Lawrence River between the lake's outlet and Montreal.
"Last year this time, we were a few inches above long-term average," McKenna said. "It's certainly not encouraging to have it this high, this year, and not have a way (for the board) to protect us. ... We're at the mercy of the weather."
Even though the lake is 13 inches above average, it is still more than 7 inches below the new trigger point at which the board is authorized to deviate from Plan 2014.
McKenna and other Plan 2014 critics say that if the board had the freedom to increase outflows free of the trigger points, last year's flooding would have been far less severe.
"Under Plan 2014, the control board has zero power to do anything. ... It's scary when you think about it, because we're a foot above average now," McKenna said.
But Koralewski said Plan 2014 sets outflows based on water levels, and that the board's current operations are similar to that of the old plan.
"Most likely we'd be running very similar outflows (under the old plan) to what we'd be doing now," he said.
What's more, the current outflows of nearly 312,500 cubic feet per second are a record for this time of year, Koralewski said. And for the past four weeks, outflows have remained consistently far higher than they were in 2016 and 2017.
Early last year, the board had to sharply reduce outflows numerous times because frequent thaws prevented the formation of a stable ice cover. High outflows coupled with a weak ice cover can cause ice jams, which leads to flooding.
This year, Koralewski said, a stable ice cover formed in early January, allowing the board to set higher outflows.
Only time will tell if conditions stay as favorable in the coming months.
"Hopefully we'll continue to have some drier weather and colder weather, and that helps us as far as reducing the amount of impacts on the lake," Koralewski said.
 

Opie

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Article 2
http://www.oswegocountynewsnow.com/...cle_8e89fe4c-ae32-11e7-b2cd-4f2ca08c7b7e.html
State leaders hear details of devastating flooding in hearing in Mexico
• By MATTHEW REITZ matt@fultonvalleynews.com
• Oct 10, 2017
MEXICO - State representatives heard testimony from regulators and other stakeholders at Mexico High School Tuesday, examining the factors that led to devastating flooding on Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River and ways to prevent further damage from flooding in the future.
Hosted by state senators Patty Ritchie and Tom O'Mara and assemblymen Will Barclay and Bob Oaks, the event brought together representatives from state and federal agencies, environmental and engineering experts, business owners and the International Joint Commission (IJC), a U.S.-Canadian partnership that oversees shared waterways between the two countries, including the Great Lakes.
At the heart of the discussion was if the IJC's new Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Plan 2014 - designed to return the Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River to a more natural ebb and flow than under the previous plan in place since the 1950s - implemented this year was to blame for the flooding.
Initial estimates said Plan 2014 could lead to an increase in lake levels of approximately 2.4 inches as it "allows for higher highs and lower lows," according to IJC officials. Upon its implementation, the IJC also conceded that annual coastal damage to "shore protection structures, unprotected shorelines and buildings" in the U.S. and Canada under the plan would cost approximately $20 million.
Early on in the more than four-hour hearing, Ritchie, R-Heuvelton, said the question everyone wanted to answer was whether or not the historic flooding would happen again next year. Ritchie said in her tours of shoreline communities the "devastation has been heartbreaking" and recovering often goes "beyond money."
O'Mara, R-Big Flats, asked regulators if the historic flooding is "the new normal because of Plan 2014."
Stephen Durrett, alternate co-chair of the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board, told the lawmakers and hundreds of people at the hearing that the extremely high water levels were "primarily driven by extreme weather conditions."
Drawing jeers from the crowd, Durrett said heavy rainfall across the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence system and record-setting runoff was to blame for the flooding. Due to record-setting precipitation and unusually high amounts of water entering Lake Ontario from Lake Erie and other sources, the net supply of water entering Lake Ontario in April and May this year was the highest two-month span ever recorded, according to Durrett.
Members of the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board are appointed by the IJC, and the river board is tasked with determining outflows from the Moses-Saunders Dam, according to the strategy set forth in Plan 2014.
Durrett said the river board doesn't "come into play" until high or low water benchmarks set in Plan 2014 are met. Only then are decisions about changing outflow levels made by the board.
Outflows from the Moses-Saunders Dam this year were among the highest ever recorded, Durrett said, noting that any increases in outflow would have caused extensive flooding downstream in Montreal while providing only minimal relief to Lake Ontario communities.
"The lake rose extremely fast in the March-April timeframe and there was literally nothing we could do," Durrett said. "There was no place to send the water."
Water levels have steadily declined since August, and are expected to continue to decline and approach average levels by the end of the calendar year, according to Durrett.
Durrett said the river board is putting together a post-flood assessment to determine what, if anything, could have been done to prevent or alleviate the flooding. That assessment would include whether or not the high or low water levels determined in Plan 2014 should be altered.
Frank Sciremammano Jr., a Ph.D. and professional engineer, who attended as a citizen but is also a member of the river board, said "Plan 2014 did not cause the flooding," but it also didn't protect against it.
He said "within a few inches we probably would have had the same flood."
Sciremammano said the river board is prohibited from making deviations from the plan that might benefit shoreline communities, and blamed environmentalists and the New York state government for not standing up for homeowners during the creation of the plan.
The Canadian and Quebec Provincial government stood up for its citizens and demanded whatever plan adopted didn't cause further damage to the area, while New York and U.S. representatives did not, according to Sciremammano.
"The area was sold down the river in my opinion," he said, adding that the process through which it was creating was secretive. "Nobody was there standing up for New York state beyond the wetlands."
Sciremammano said Plan 2014 "does have some good features," but added that revisions must be made and that the river board should have some discretion to deviate from the plan.
As it is now, "the board could see (flooding) coming and wouldn't be able to do anything," he said.
International Joint Commission Technical Advisor Bill Werick testified that Plan 2014, or any plan put in place, would not be "capable of full control." Plan 2014 still suppresses Lake Ontario water levels compared to nature, according to Werick.
When asked if preventative measures should have been taken earlier in the year, officials from the IJC and river board said lake levels were similar to 2016 into late February and there was no indication action should be taken. Werick said that up until February "2016 looked very much like 2017."
After trigger levels were met, the river board was "releasing as much water as they could" while trying to balance flooding downstream, Werick said. He noted that as water levels get higher, the old plan and Plan 2014 "are more alike" in terms of outflows.
Oaks, R-Macedon, said one of his major concerns is how to prevent similar destruction from happening in the future.
"I'm very concerned about what happens next year and the year after and beyond," Oaks said.
Werick urged lawmakers and those in attendance to "stay engaged" and "act soon" before interest in the subject waned. He said there would be "no easy answers," but protective measures could be taken against future flooding.
State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) Executive Deputy Ken Lynch said the IJC's Plan 2014 "exacerbated" the flooding by failing to increase outflows.
He said the IJC's actions illustrated that commercial shipping interests were thought to be more important than those of shoreline homeowners.
Lynch also stressed the importance of preparing for future flooding and making the region "as resilient as ever."
Representatives from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, including Buffalo District Commander Lt. Colonel Adam Czekanski, were on hand to discuss measures that could be taken to improve future flood mitigation, including creating breakwall structures and other coastal protections.
Others testifying at the hearing included Acting President of New York State Homes and Community Renewal Chris Leo, New York Sea Grant Coastal Community Specialist Mary Austerman, Oswego County Emergency Management Director Dale Currier.
A number of tourism officials and business owners were scheduled to testify Tuesday night, but testimony was not completed approaching press time.
 

Opie

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Good morning,

Friday January 26th, the average level is at 74.90 M


The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.6 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2007, February lake level average was 74.69 M - 2017 data has yet to be updated to the charts
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 38 F

Next reading date is Friday February 23rd

Reading date / Lake Average 2018

Jan 26 - 74.95
Jan 12 - 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 - 74.71 M
Dec 8 - 74.795
Nov 24 - 74.89
Nov 9 - 74.929
Oct 27 - 74.83
Oct 10 - 74.95
Sept 29 - 74.99
Sept 15 - 75.12
Sept 1 - 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 4 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71


News from around the lake


Hope Montreal is ready

http://www.thesuburban.com/news/wes...cle_28d2573c-5cbb-527f-b9c4-602d95e743ca.html
Lac St. Louis water levels higher than normal
• By Kevin Woodhouse
The Suburban
• Feb 7, 2018
The current water levels in Lake Ontario have begun to rise above normal levels due to the recent amount of mild temperatures and increased precipitation in the form of rain.
The current level is 31 cm above normal while in Lac St. Louis, that level is about 22 cm higher than normal for this time of year.
"While the levels are currently above average, these are not record highs," Rob Caldwell, Canadian Secretary for the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board told The Suburban. The board is a joint commission between Canada and the United States that ensures the outflow from Lake Ontario adheres to the International Joint Commission's mandate.
"In response to the high water levels, the Board is still setting outflows from Lake Ontario at the highest rates while managing ice conditions," Caldwell explained. "Recent reductions were required to promote the formation of a solid, stable ice cover in critical sections of the St. Lawrence River, thereafter allowing increased outflow under the ice. Without this stable ice cover, the risk of ice jams is high."
Caldwell explained that these ice jams, anchor ice, can be found in the Lachine Rapids as well as a process called frazil, a slushy "supercooled water that is slightly below freezing and can cause ice crystals very quickly that can stick to surrounding rocks and the substrate on the river bed."
This phenomenon can cause "a backwater effect where water must flow around but the recent warmer weather over the next coming days will make the accumulated ice subside," Caldwell said.
Last year' record high Lake Ontario and Great Lakes levels caused the spring flooding. So far this year, they "are higher than usual and the net effect is that Lake St. Louis will remain above normal for the foreseeable future."
"While Lake Ontario remains well above average, historically, winter water levels have not provided an accurate indicator of the peak, later in spring," Caldwell noted.
 

scotto

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Thanks for the update Opie, from my canal level meter (ladder), the lake was little calmer yesterday and look as if the lake level had actually dropped slightly again.
Looking at your graph posted above, the red recorded levels for the last two Februarys show a sharp incline which are almost identical. This year, the red line seems to almost be going south. Is this a sign that the high discharges are working?
 

Opie

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As of February 12th, the water level is still below canal rail.

Wishing it were still lower

Came across two articles this morning

First one is from channel 10 CBS Rochester NY, they ran this 4 minute news clip today regarding the upcoming flood season see below.
Second is a report on Lake Superior regarding its very high water level-remember all that excess water will make its way to Lake Ontario

http://www.whec.com/news/flood-ijc-concerns-nys-exposed/4787733/

February 14, 2018 03:20 AM
Communities on the shore of Lake Ontario devastated by flooding last spring could face similar conditions and no change in lake level management policies by the International Joint Committee (IJC), which regulates lake levels, even as the Trump Administration planned to replace the U.S. delegation to the IJC.
"There is only so much that can be done," the IJC's outgoing U.S. Chair Lana Pollack told News 10 NBC. "We manage the water. We keep the water going as sensibly as possible."
"It's going to get worse this year," exclaimed homeowner Tim Ekiert of Greece. "I can almost guarantee it. We're scared."
Ekiert was thankful for the large chucks of ice that accumulated between his home and the lake, calling them valuable protection after high water washed out most of the stone in his break wall. He anticipated bringing in a contractor to start the rebuilding process within the next few weeks but, with lake levels already about a foot above average, he also looked nervously ahead to a possible new season of high water.

"We're all planning on it being worse this year and, if does get worse," he said, "We are going to have to get out. And we're just very afraid of that."
Ekiert also blasted the IJC and its "Plan 2014" for managing lake water levels which many lake shore homeowners blamed for the flooding.
"When they came up with this plan, they didn't care," he said. "'Oh, it's going to be minimal damage.' Minimal? Last year wasn't minimal. Last year was maximum damage."
Pollack insisted the flooding was due to an extraordinarily wet spring with high rains and high inflows to the lake, not because of Plan 2014. She spoke with News 10 NBC as the environmental group Save the River presented her with its "Friend of the River" award in 1000 Islands. Pollack criticized what she called the "bad politics" of public figures, including politicians, who insist that the IJC could have prevented the flooding and could protect lakeshore homes and businesses from future flooding by controlling lake levels.
"Bad politics is telling people that changing a plan can save their property," she said. "I'm stepping out soon. The next person, if they expect that person to be the supernatural, to protect the unprotectable. That person is going to be very unpopular. We have to manage expectations."
Advocates for lakeshore communities like the Lake Ontario Riparian Alliance and the Lake Ontario South Shore Council (L.O.S.S.) insisted that, in formulating Plan 2014, the IJC deliberately placed a lower priority on the people who live on the lake.
"Plan 2014 went into place as an effort to adjust lakeshore regulation to favor favorite environmental interests," said Henry Stewart, President of L.O.S.S. "I think it's a criminal what they've done," he continued. "They knew that the south shore was going to be damaged, and badly."
Stewart also dismissed contentions that it was unrealistic to expect that the IJC could protect homes on the lake by more tightly controlling water levels.
"I think it's absolutely realistic to say that it can protect it because, under the prior plan of 60 years, there was not anywhere near this type of damage," he said.
IJC consultant Bill Weric joined Pollack in warning that the IJC's hands were further tied by ice on the St Lawrence River where a rapid drop in water levels could break up an ice sheet and create ice jams.
"That can cause flooding above the ice," Weric said. "As that breaks up, that will go down and scour and destroy the river. While that does play a role at certain times, they could have been sending more water through at previous times; back in the fall, and on forward to December before the formation of the ice floes."
But preemptive drawing down of the lake, Weric said, raised environmental concerns.
"When you do that, that also means that levels will be lower in the spring," he said. "That will reduce the productivity of the lake Ontario wetlands. That's bad for species like several species of birds that are listed as 'at risk.' So there's a tradeoff."
The IJC is made up of three U.S. and three Canadian representatives. The three U.S. members, including Pollack, formally tendered their resignations in December but remained on the commission awaiting replacement.
New York Congressman Chris Collins told News 10 NBC that three replacements had been selected but had not formally been announced by the White House.
Pollack offered some advice for her successor.
"Listen to the people," she said. "Listen to the scientists. Listen to the hydrologists. Work with the governments. Encourage people to be realistic. And discourage overpromising."
Stewart urged lakeshore communities to remain diligent in advocacy "That that interest level has to stay strong," he said. "Public advocacy and grassroots advocacy has to stay strong because these governmental regulators may think that we're just going to go away and they can slip things through."
"People's expectations, I think, are very reasonable and very fair," he continued. "We aren't asking for a greater priority than the other interests. We're just asking not to be neglected."
 

Opie

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2nd article


http://msue.anr.msu.edu/news/lake_s...ring_monthly_record_highs_msg18_breederland18

• Lake Superior water levels nearing monthly record highs
Shoreline erosion and coastal damages likely. Water will also make its way down through the other Great Lakes, too.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Monthly forecasts for Great Lakes levels in February 2018 have just been released by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Many people are keeping a close eye on current lake levels and future predictions, particularly for Lake Superior. The preliminary data just in for January 2018, show Lake Superior just set the second highest monthly record level, a mere 2 inches below its all-time record for the monthly average January (record set in 1986). The recently released forecast also indicates a high probability Lake Superior could be within 2 inches of its all-time record high levels for every one of the next six months. Put simply, there is a lot of water in Lake Superior and all of that water will eventually make its way through the other Great Lakes.
100 years of data
Also, 2018 marks the centennial year of accurate lake level measurements from the series of binational gaging stations . The measurements for Lake Superior are taken in Duluth, Minn.; Marquette, Mich.; Pt. Iroquois, Mich.; Thunder Bay and Michipicoten, Ontario. There are now 100 years of coordinated data ¬-this geographically dispersed gaging network accounts for seiches and provides excellent information - and thus 100 January monthly averages.
Isn't Lake Superior's water level controlled?
The International Lake Superior Board of Control has a Regulation Plan 2012 and is responsible for regulating the outflow and control works in the St. Mary's River. This Board has been in place since 1914 and has compensating works which allow for some limited variation. This plan must meet multiple objectives including hydropower; municipal and industrial water supply, navigation through the locks, and maintaining a minimum flow for protection of fish habitat in the St. Mary's River. The January 2018 control board update states:
"In consideration of the continuing high water levels in the upper Great Lakes, the International Lake Superior Board of Control, under authority granted to it by the International Joint Commission (IJC), will continue to release outflows of up to 2,510 cubic metres per second (m3/s) through the winter months. This flow is 100 m3/s more than the normal winter maximum prescribed by Regulation Plan 2012. Actual outflows may vary depending on hydrologic and ice conditions, as well as maintenance activities at the hydropower plants on the St. Mary's River, all of which have been directed to flow at their maximum available capacity."
Additionally, the Board noted:
"The high levels coupled with strong winds and waves have resulted in shoreline erosion and coastal damages across the upper Great Lakes system. As lake ice begins to form this may provide a level of protection to some areas of the shoreline, but additional shoreline erosion and coastal damages may occur this winter should active weather continue."
System snow in Lake Superior impacts the spring seasonal rise as the snow turns into liquid water. We're still in the thick of winter so time will tell if the 2018 seasonal rises are low, average, or high. Regardless of how much changes over the next few months, notable shoreline erosion and coastal damages can be expected on Lake Superior shores. (View above image at https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/wlevels/lowlevels/plot/Superior.jpg.)
Tools to help visualize changes
One tool for shoreline owners and other interests is the Great Lakes Shoreview risk assessment tool (http://www.greatlakesshoreviewer.org/#/great-lakes). This tool, funded by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources Office of the Great Lakes, is a web-based mapping tool that shows photos from the Lake Superior shoreline, some nearshore LIDAR data, and some risk rankings.
One other tool to note is the NOAA Lake Levels Viewer tool. Similarly, this web-based mapping tool allows users to artificially fluctuate levels up or down and see impacts on the shore. The tool is found on NOAA's Digital Coast website at https://coast.noaa.gov/llv/. Select the lake you are interested in, zoom to your geographic area, and use the legend bar to vary the lake levels. You will see impacts on the screen.
It has been a bit of a coastal dynamics wild ride, just 5 years ago all-time record-low lake levels were noted in some of the Great Lakes; now we're dealing with almost all time highs. Keep your seat belts buckled! Contact Mark Breederland, Michigan State University Extension Sea Grant if you want more information on living with the ever-changing dynamic coastlines of the Great Lakes.
Michigan Sea Grant, partnered with MSU Extension, helps to foster economic growth and protect Michigan's coastal, Great Lakes resources through education, research and outreach. A collaborative effort of the University of Michigan and Michigan State University, Michigan Sea Grant is part of the NOAA-National Sea Grant network of 33 university-based programs.
This article was published by Michigan State University Extension. For more information, visit http://www.msue.msu.edu. To have a digest of information delivered straight to your email inbox, visit http://www.msue.msu.edu/newsletters. To contact an expert in your area, visit http://expert.msue.msu.edu, or call 888-MSUE4MI (888-678-3464).
 

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Compared to the last two Februarys, there hasn't been the sharp incline this year, not yet anyway.
Maybe some good news;


http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missi...vel-Forecast/Weekly-Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/


LAKE LEVEL CONDITIONS


In the past month, water levels for Lakes Michigan-Huron, Erie, and Ontario have stayed near the same level, while Lake Superior declined 3 inches and Lake St. Clair declined 2 inches. Currently, water levels for all the Great Lakes remain above long-term average levels, but only Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Ontario are experiencing levels higher than this time last year. Lake Superior continues to see water levels close to the record high monthly water level and is currently 2 inches below the record high February level. In the next month, Lake Superior is expected to decline 2 inches, while Lakes Michigan-Huron and Ontario are expected to stay close to their current levels. Lakes St. Clair and Erie are expected to rise by 8 and 5 inches, respectively. See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information. http://lre-wm.usace.army.mil/ForecastData/DailyLevelsEnglish.pdf
 

Opie

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Compared to the last two Februarys, there hasn't been the sharp incline this year, not yet anyway.
Maybe some good news;


http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missi...vel-Forecast/Weekly-Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/


LAKE LEVEL CONDITIONS


In the past month, water levels for Lakes Michigan-Huron, Erie, and Ontario have stayed near the same level, while Lake Superior declined 3 inches and Lake St. Clair declined 2 inches. Currently, water levels for all the Great Lakes remain above long-term average levels, but only Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Ontario are experiencing levels higher than this time last year. Lake Superior continues to see water levels close to the record high monthly water level and is currently 2 inches below the record high February level. In the next month, Lake Superior is expected to decline 2 inches, while Lakes Michigan-Huron and Ontario are expected to stay close to their current levels. Lakes St. Clair and Erie are expected to rise by 8 and 5 inches, respectively. See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information. http://lre-wm.usace.army.mil/ForecastData/DailyLevelsEnglish.pdf
It is good news but need to remember that the IJC has Lake Ontario on a record maximum discharge for this time of the year due to the influx of water from Lake Erie. All of this will come to an end soon once the spring thaw starts, that is when I will start to really worry about it.
 

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Good morning,

Friday February 23rd, the average level is at 74.973 M

*should note that the last 24 hrs we have had an ENE wind, producing 1.5 to 2'waves, which may skew the results. I will do another read Tuesday morning next week, after this weather front passes and before the next one arrives.

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.6 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2007, February lake level average was 74.69 M - 2017 data has yet to be updated to the charts
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 40 F

Next reading date is Friday March 9th

Reading date / Lake Average 2018

Feb 09 - 74.90
Jan 26 - 74.95
Jan 12 - 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 - 74.71 M
Dec 8 - 74.795
Nov 24 - 74.89
Nov 9 - 74.929
Oct 27 - 74.83
Oct 10 - 74.95
Sept 29 - 74.99
Sept 15 - 75.12
Sept 1 - 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 4 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71


 

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As of this morning the lake level is at 74.985 M and conditions are calm. It would seem that Lake Ontario, with a maximum outflow, continues to rise a little bit more since the last read. Looking at the lake level chart it shows, as the storm moved past us this weekend, the lake reached a height of 75.073 M on 2/25 at 04:00

http://www.spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/news/2018/02/27/lake-ontario-rising-water-levels-


Lake Ontario communities prepare for rising water levels
By Breanna Fuss | February 27, 2018 @7:45 AM
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WILSON, N.Y. - After last year's historic flooding up and down the Lake Ontario shoreline, leaders in Niagara County are already preparing for another wet season.
Residents in lakeshore communities like Wilson and Olcott are bracing for the worst, but hoping for the best.
The Army Corps of Engineers released its six-month outlook last month, suggesting the flooding, if it happens, won't be as bad as last year.
The historic flooding last year caused millions of dollars in damage to homes, businesses and the shoreline.
As a whole, the Army Corps predicts water levels on the Great Lakes will rise for the fifth straight year.
According to the most recent report by the office on Friday, Lake Ontario already is two inches higher than this time last year.
It's expected to rise by two more inches by the end of March.
Emergency management directors are preparing for flooding.
 

Opie

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Seems the IJC is going to increase the discharge this week, guessing last week's rain which caused flooding around the Lake Erie basin, that water is now heading towards Lake Ontario. Plus the next weather maker for the region will bring a lot of rain and snow.

Current lake level for the last 24 hrs is 75.001 M


http://www.pressrepublican.com/news...cle_204a996e-1caf-11e8-bdd0-a38830c3747a.html

NYPA urges caution as Long Sault Dam gates due to open
• 1 hr ago

MASSENA - The gates at Long Sault Dam on the St. Lawrence River may need to be opened as early as Thursday, March 1, in order to spill excess water.
A spill through the dam will result in rapidly changing river flows and potentially unsafe ice conditions along the South Channel of the river, downstream of the dam. Members of the public, including those ice fishing on the river or channel, should be alert to rapidly changing ice conditions and should stay off the ice.
A warning siren at the Long Sault Dam will sound just prior to the start of spilling and before any flow changes through the dam. Temporary signage will be posted along various locations near the South Channel to inform the public that water is being released.
Members of the public should:
Keep back a minimum of 800 ft. from the Long Sault Dam spillway and Robert Moses Power Dam, both on the upstream and downstream side.
Use caution on and near the river.
Be aware of changing river conditions and strong currents.
Spilling water at Long Sault Dam can occur with very little notice, so caution and awareness along the river, especially in the South Channel, and near the Long Sault Dam spillway and the Robert Moses Power Dam is advised at all times.
Water flows from Lake Ontario into the St. Lawrence River are governed by the International Joint Commission. Outflows from Lake Ontario are established on a weekly basis by the International Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Board, which monitors water levels and oversees water releases with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on the U.S. side and the Environment Canada on the Canadian side monitoring day-to-day activities.
Information on water levels can be obtained at: http://ijc.org/en_/islrbc.
The Board's action to increase outflow this week is being taken in response to higher than normal water levels and ice conditions on Lake Ontario and is in accordance with international treaties and the Plan 2014 agreement that dictates how flow changes occur on the St. Lawrence River. Actual outflows will depend on conditions in the St. Lawrence River.
Spilling activities could take place through the remainder of winter and through the spring.
 
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Opie

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Came across this article today and found a grass roots community east of Toronto that is against the current PLAN 2014.
Here is a link to the organization's web site and they also have an on line petition if you care to sign

http://unitedshorelineontario.ca/

here is the article
http://www.thedailynewsonline.com/b...ntario-flooding-predicted-at-meeting-20180302

High waters: New Lake Ontario flooding predicted at meeting
By MALLORY DIEFENBACH
MDIEFENBACH@BATAVIANEWS.COM
PUBLISHED: FRIDAY, MARCH 2, 2018 AT 5:15 AM
POINT BREEZE - Lake Ontario will flood again. It is not a matter of if, but when.
Sharon Cassano Lochman, co-founder of United Shorelines, attended a Feb. 21 meeting with United Shoreline Ontario Canada - the Canadian group of lakefront homeowners - in Bowmanville, Ontario. The meeting itself was actually a presentation given by a representative of the International Joint Commission and she said people were told during the meeting to expect "crazy high" water levels on a regular basis.
"One thing that really surprised me was they said, 'Well you've enjoyed pretty much stable water levels with the lake over the last 50 years. But that is over now.'" she said. "Then they tried to explain to us why we were better off with the plan."
Cassano Lochman said it was difficult keeping quiet when they heard the flooding will be a guaranteed repeat. When a Canadian member of the audience asked how the Americans felt about the situation, she took the opportunity to open up discussion on how residents along the south shore felt about the situation. Cassano Lochman said the Canadians were neither aware of Plan 2014 nor the trigger levels, and it opened up an avenue of discussion.
Other things mentioned at the meeting included that the IJC has no intention of "protections/indemnities" as set out by the treaty and the IJC study principles and views the damages as a "reduction of benefits."
According to a newsletter from United Shoreline Ontario Canada, "In their view, the baseline is not the last 50-plus years of lake level regulation. They believe the baseline is their 'modelling' of what the shoreline would probably look like without regulation."
"I think that it was a good thing to go because we are not alone. We have our neighbors across the border and they are going through the same thing we're going through," she said. "They're Canadians and we're Americans, and we both love our countries, respectively, but we're both suffering. I have a compassion for what they are going through because we're in the same position."
In order to prepare for the flooding, United Shorelines suggests to make emergency preparations now before disaster hits, offering the following advice:
• Make a checklist of things to grab in the event of an evacuation - for example: medications, glasses, pet food, tax papers, bills, checks, insurance paperwork, computer, contact numbers, phones and chargers and your deed. Keep the list where you keep your car keys.
• Predetermine where you can stay short-term and long-term.
• Take photos now before the event to document new damage.
• Move important or sentimental items to a higher level.
• Those who live on higher ground, please help your neighbors. Offer housing or pet care until the water settles. We are in this together.
• Keep all emergency numbers near your phone. Be prepared to turn off utilities if necessary.
• Have your pumps in place.
 

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Good morning,

Friday March 9th, the average level is at 74.99 M

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.6 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2007, March lake level average was 74.75 M - 2017 data has now been updated to the charts
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 40 F

Next reading date is Friday March 23rd

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Feb 23 - 74.973
Feb 09 - 74.90
Jan 26 - 74.95
Jan 12 - 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 - 74.71 M
Dec 8 - 74.795
Nov 24 - 74.89
Nov 9 - 74.929
Oct 27 - 74.83
Oct 10 - 74.95
Sept 29 - 74.99
Sept 15 - 75.12
Sept 1 - 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 4 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

News from around the lake, first article shows an example that the IJC can change the existing Plan with supplementary orders for high flood risk years

http://www.ifallsjournal.com/news/l...cle_c1d5c8a0-e092-5eb0-994f-fe1fec3c6653.html

New rule curves set for Rainy, Namakan
• By LAUREL BEAGER Editor
Laurel Beager
o
• Mar 8, 2018 Updated 15 hrs ago

New rule curves set to take effect in August for Rainy and Namakan lakes should reduce flood peaks. This graph from Boise Paper, a Packaging Corporation of America company, shows the water level on Rainy Lake in 2014 as it related to the lake's rule curve.
The levels of Rainy and Namakan lakes will be guided by new rule curves intended to provide broad ecological benefits while assisting in reducing flood peaks.
The International Joint Commission said Wednesday it has signed a supplementary order for Rainy and Namakan lakes effective in August that includes an alternative rule curve for Rainy Lake for high flood risk years that will help to reduce flood peaks, further operational guidance for the Water Levels Committee, continued and improved engagement with Métis, Tribes and First Nations and exploration of adaptive management.
"The modified rule curves will help to ensure that the boundary waters of the Rainy River basin are well managed for years to come," said Canadian Commissioner Richard Morgan in a news release.
The supplementary order gives the WLC, which monitors water levels operations, an expanded role, which includes determining high flood-risk years for Rainy Lake, requesting deviations from the Namakan Lake rule curve under certain circumstances, and targeting levels outside of the middle portion of the rule curves for each lake.
Local reaction
International Falls resident Pam Tomevi, a newly appointed member of the International Rainy-Lake of the Woods Watershed Board Water Levels Committee, said she's excited to be a part of a dedicated effort to manage water levels for multiple, important interests.
"The IJC approved the recommended changes to the rule curve proposed by the study board," she said. "With the increased public engagement and inclusion of adaptive management, the new supplemental order is expected to have positive effects in the Rainy basin."
Tom Worth, a member of the Rule Curve Public Advisory Group, also said he was pleased with the final product, noting the Rainy Lake Sportfishing Club followed the rule curve study closely.
"We were glad to see the broad public participation in the process that ended in adopting a new rule curve," he said. "The community now has ownership... It took a long time, but it was worth it."
Worth said a big change is the creation of a Water Level Committee that includes one local person that will oversee the regulation of the day-to-day water levels.
"They have been given flexibility to take into account current conditions," he said. "That gives them the ability to react to unusual conditions, such as a heavy rain storm, quickly. That's something we haven't had before. Conditions for the fisheries remain about the same as the 2000 rule curve. That's a plus as the 2000 rule curve was good for the fisheries and that will be continued. All in all, it's a plus for the watershed."
Long process
The proposed changes result from an August 2015-June 2017 binational study, extensive public consultation and deliberation by the IJC. The binational study board, The International Rainy and Namakan Lakes Rule Curves Study Board, held more than 45 public and advisory group meetings within the basin before submitting its final report to the IJC. The IJC used the report to formulate the new supplementary order and other changes, and held four public hearings in the basin in August 2017 before finalizing the supplementary order.
"The level of public participation in the review of this order was outstanding," said U.S. Commissioner Rich Moy, "and there will be greater opportunity for public engagement with the Water Levels Committee."
The IJC has instructed the International Rainy-Lake of the Woods Watershed Board and the WLC to take actions needed to implement the new rule curves in August of 2018. It is also working with the board to finalize documents, including a new supplementary directive to the Water Levels Committee, operations guidelines and recommendations for adaptive management, as well as identifying resource and data source needs to support inflow forecasting.
In the event that the WLC anticipates high inflows to the system this spring, before the new curves are implemented, while considering impacts and trade offs, the WLC can ask the IJC for a deviation to follow the 2018 flood reduction curve for Rainy Lake or ask for a deviation for Namakan Lake.
Under the 1938 Rainy Lake Convention, the IJC has responsibilities to regulate water levels and avoid extreme conditions on both Rainy Lake and the Namakan Chain of Lakes, which are boundary waters located in northern Minnesota and northwestern Ontario. Since 1949 the IJC has employed rule curves, a type of water level regulation procedure, to regulate water levels in these lake systems. The board and the WLC are responsible for ensuring the established rule curves are followed by the dam operators, as far as natural conditions allow. These rule curves have been periodically reviewed by the IJC to ensure current science and stakeholder benefits are being properly considered.
The International Joint Commission was established under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 to help the United States and Canada prevent and resolve disputes over the use of the waters the two countries share. It was given additional responsibilities under the 1938 Rainy Lake Convention. For more information, visit the Commission's website at www.ijc.org.
 

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2nd article



http://buffalonews.com/2018/03/02/m...ario-but-level-remains-higher-than-last-year/

With Lake Ontario level rising, communities brace for flooding
By Thomas J. Prohaska | Published March 2, 2018 | Updated March 6, 2018
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More water has been let out of Lake Ontario than this time last year. But local emergency management officials still expect high water levels in coming months and are preparing for flooding along the shorelines in Niagara and Orleans counties.
"It's not going up as much as it was last year, but it's still going up," Jonathan F. Schultz, Niagara County emergency management director, said of the lake's water level.
Local officials, who are keeping a close eye on the lake's water level, still seethe about last spring's flooding that wreaked so much damage along eroded shorelines. They said the International Joint Commission, which regulates the lake's water level, waited too long to react.
Niagara County Legislator John Syracuse calls last year's floods "a government-caused disaster."
The commission calls it unlikely that last spring's combination of exceptional rainfall, snowmelt and rising inflows from Lake Erie will happen again this spring.
Still, the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board is letting far more water out than in 2017 and has been more active in adjusting the flow in recent months. The board, a subsidiary of the International Joint Commission, adjusts how much water can leave the lake past the dams at Massena to flow to the St. Lawrence River and from there to the Atlantic Ocean.


Damage from high water on Lake Ontario
The board has adjusted the outflow 33 times since Jan. 1. By comparison, the board did so only 10 times in the first two months of 2017.
On Wednesday, the flow increased to 2.38 million gallons per second, the highest rate of the year. A year ago, the late-winter peak was 1.97 million gallons per second. The board last year didn't open the spigots as wide as they are now until May 17.
This year's outflows have not increased because of last year's criticism, said Frank Bevacqua, a spokesman for the International Joint Commission.
"The levels are higher than they were last year, so the plan is trying to discharge large amounts of water," he said.
Higher water
Waters are a little higher than they were last year at this time.
The lake is two inches higher than it was in late February 2017, and it's a foot above the long-term average for this time of year, according to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers figures. The Corps forecasts Lake Ontario waters will rise two more inches in the next month, based on precipitation levels.
Ice conditions in the St. Lawrence are more conducive this year to allowing faster flows out of the lake, with the water running under stable surface ice, Bevacqua said. Last year, there was a risk of major ice jamming if the lake had emptied faster, he said.
But the water flowing into the lake last week, from precipitation and through the Niagara River and other streams, exceeded the managed outflows by 270,000 gallons every second, the IJC's website reported.
As of Jan. 1, the lake was 3.7 feet lower than its peak at the end of May, the fastest drop ever recorded. But it started to rise again because of rain and snow in January, causing the IJC to order the fastest outflows ever for the season.
"While Lake Ontario remains well above average, historically, winter water levels have not provided an accurate indicator of the peak later in spring," the IJC said in a recent news release. "Hydrologic conditions have a much greater influence, and while impossible to predict, it is unlikely that last spring's combination of exceptional rainfall, snowmelt and rapidly rising inflows from Lake Erie will all repeat themselves and lead to extremely high water levels again this year. Nonetheless, extreme conditions may occur in any given year, and when they do, the risk of extreme water levels cannot be substantially reduced through regulation of outflows."
Also, the agency balances problems on the New York shore with conditions in and around Montreal.
 

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More news from around the lake

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/north...cess_lake_ontario_water_into_st_lawrence.html

Dam floodgates to open to drain excess Lake Ontario water into St. Lawrence
Updated 7:00 AM; Posted 5:57 AM
By The Associated Press
MASSENA, N.Y. (AP) -- Floodgates are being opened at a New York Power Authority dam in Massena to spill excess water from Lake Ontario into the Saint Lawrence River.
The gates at Long Sault (SOO) Dam are scheduled to open at 7 a.m. Monday. The power authority says there will be rapidly changing river flows downstream.
Outflows from Lake Ontario are established weekly by the International Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Board. The decision to open the floodgates Monday is in response to higher than normal water levels and ice conditions on Lake Ontario.
The spilling may continue through March 23.
Heavy spring rains last year filled Lake Ontario to a record high level, resulting in extensive shoreline flooding. Officials said opening dam floodgates would have worsened floods that were also occurring downstream.

http://www.intelligencer.ca/2018/03/10/troubled-waters-over-plan-2014
Troubled waters over Plan 2014

By Tim Miller, The Intelligencer
Saturday, March 10, 2018 9:36:31 EST AM
Increased shoreline damage for those living on Lake Ontario is likely a new normal says members of a provincial advocacy group.
Last spring, torrential rains and rising lake levels swamped much of the Quinte area's waterfront, damaging local infrastructure and even transforming one Belleville waterside neighbourhood into a network of impromptu asphalt-lined canals complete with spawning carp.
"We're in a new situation where the lake is going to be damaging and pounding our structures and our infrastructure on the shorelines, by design, for a long period of time," said Jim Mackenzie, a member of United Shoreline Ontario, a grassroots organization whose stated goal is to engage governments and private home owners towards the protection of lakeshore homes, families, businesses, emergency responders and municipalities from violent or wide-spread lake surge flooding.
The design Mackenzie referred to is Plan 2014 - a system set up by the International Joint Commission (IJC) on regulating Lake Ontario outflows through the Moses Saunders Dam in Cornwall.
Mackenzie said the new plan, which came into effect at the start of last year, is designed to allow higher highs, and lower lows, in the lake for longer periods of time.
Mackenzie said an unintended consequence of the new plan is, when storm surges hit at a time when lake levels are being maintained at a high level, that excess water has no place to go but onto the shore.
"Even if it doesn't cause a catastrophic event like it did last year, it's still going to wear down our shorelines and our structures faster," said Mackenzie.
Prior to January 2017 the lake levels were governed by the 50-year-old Plan 1958. All current municipal infrastructure, boat launches and private docks were designed to Plan 1958 lake levels.
David Fay, engineering advisor for the IJC, said the reason for the changes in the new plan was to provide some environmental restoration in wetland areas.
"The old plan that was developed in the 1950s ignored the needs of the environment," said Fay. "You understand in the 1950s that wasn't on anyone's radar screen."
Fay contends the difference between the new plan and the old plan is "relatively modest".
"The new plan does allow the lake more variation in the water level, but in the highest and the lowest water levels, it behaves basically the same and the rules are kind of the same. It doesn't really cause or exacerbate the highest or the lowest level, it'll provide more variability in the middle.
"The wetland biologists tells us that some variation in water levels is necessary to promote diversity of wetland species and provide habitat."
Sarah Delicate, another member of United Shoreline Ontario, said they are reaching out to lake-side communities in an effort to share the group's concerns over Plan 2014.
"It's one of the things you don't know about it until you actually need to know about it," said Delicate.
One thing both United Shoreline Ontario and the IJC agree on is an expected increase in shoreline damage and erosion under Plan 2014, though they have differing opinions to what degree.
"There's always erosion going on because of the wave effect on the shoreline," said Fay. "We do expect with the more variable water levels, that will increase and there will be more damage to shore protection, sea walls and that sort of thing.
"Unfortunately in 2017 we had record rainfalls and precipitation on Lake Ontario and the Ottawa river basin, so last spring the record flood occurred," he added. "No matter what plan would've been in place, it wouldn't have made much difference, record flooding would've happened."
The dollar cost of increased erosion is measurable, though there is again disagreement on the amount.
The annual estimated increased cost in shoreline damages due to the switch from Plan 1958 to Plan 2014 is set at $2.24 million in U.S. Dollars for the whole of the Lake Ontario shoreline.
It's an amount Delicate said was "grossly underestimated", adding it didn't include damages to anything beyond one house in, or emergency response cost or lost wages for residents forced to miss work to try and protect their homes when flooding occurs.
"It literally is 'some of your shoreline fell into the water, you might need to repair it'," she said. "The rough estimations between Quebec and Ontario for last year are pushing half-a-billion dollars."
Delicate admitted not every year is going to look like last year, but even at its best there are going to be "winners and losers" under the new plan.
Shoreline repair bills are more often than not going to land on municipalities and individual home owners with little chance of governmental reprieve, she said.
"Ultimately what Plan 2014 does is, it transfers the risk and the burden of those costs to those who can afford it the least."
Last spring's flooding wasn't caused by Plan 2014, but was a contributor, said Delicate.
"Where we run into trouble is, if we do get those biblical rains that they talk about it, and you haven't opened the dam early enough, you can open the dam as wide as you want and it's too late."
Fay said the effect of one plan over the other is relatively small compared to the variability of the climate itself.
"The predominate driver is Mother Nature," said Fay. "You have record rain, you're going to have higher water levels. It's beyond the capacity of the system to get rid of the water fast enough."
 

scotto

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“You have record rain, you're going to have higher water levels. It's beyond the capacity of the system to get rid of the water fast enough.”
I can see that there was a definite drop in the lake level from just yesterday, could be just a change in wind direction. Also areas along the St. Lawrence around Prescott and Cornwall got hit pretty hard yesterday with storms, this will slow down the discharge rate.
 

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I can see that there was a definite drop in the lake level from just yesterday, could be just a change in wind direction. Also areas along the St. Lawrence around Prescott and Cornwall got hit pretty hard yesterday with storms, this will slow down the discharge rate.

You are right there has been a slight dip in the level, latest 24 hour reading shows an average of 74.96 M. that down 3 cms since last Friday. The IJC (see story below) released a statement regarding the discharge from Lake Ontario and that it was a record amount.
They also keep repeating this "Historically, water levels in winter have not provided an accurate indicator of the peak later in spring," it said in a statement.
What the IJC doesn't mention is the other lakes upstream are still at record levels. While it is fantastic news to see that much water taken out, we need to still focus our sights on what still needs to pass thru here. Historically the IJC is correct however when the great lakes are at record levels and we still have a spring thaw to go thru, we are at a greater risk for flooding or high water damage/erosion. Let's go back to 2016, the great lakes already were at higher than normal lake levels and action should have been taken in the fall of 2016 to lessen the impact. The IJC had the data but ignored it. Yes the record amount of rain fall last year did contribute but the underlying issue of the flooding was the already swollen great lakes. Lake Ontario is at the mercy of what water enters it from the great lakes basin, there is no dam to prevent it from coming in. We have a tsunami wave of water coming towards us from the great lakes system. Not to get ahead of ourselves but if Lakes Superior, Michigan and Huron stay at higher than normal lake levels we will have a greater chance again for flooding come 2019. Unless we have a drought over the great lakes basin this year, we need to prepare for higher lake levels especially if you throw in Climate Change and how it will keep us damp for the years to come. As I pointed out in a recent article, the IJC can change a plan if flooding is a concern or data proves such is a constant, I believe we have a case.

let's keep the fingers crossed that the record discharge continues, we need the buffer before the thaw starts




https://www.nationalobserver.com/20...g-out-lake-ontario-hit-record-high-last-month
Water flowing out of Lake Ontario hit record high last month
By Carl Meyer in News, Energy, Politics | March 14th 2018

Tri Vo and Audrey Bureau inspect the flooded backyard of a house in Gatineau, Que. on May 8, 2017. Photo by Alex Tétreault
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The average amount of water flowing out of Lake Ontario last month was the highest in recorded history, and a lake near Montreal has now swelled to 54 centimetres above average.
Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River water levels are expected to stay above average into the spring, according to a new statement by the joint Canada-U.S. body in charge of regulating the water flow between them.
The joint body said the probability of a repeat of last year's heavy rain and high water levels, which led to Central Canada being pounded by severe flooding last spring and summer, was low at the moment.
Even so, it said extreme conditions can still occur, and people living or working along Lake Ontario's shoreline should be prepared for a "full range of water levels."
Last year, following one of the wettest Aprils in 100 years, the rising waters forced hundreds to evacuate around Lake Ontario, flooding over 5,000 homes in Quebec and closing federal government offices in Canada's capital region. The military deployed over 1,500 personnel to help out. Over half a year later, some families were still without homes, spending Christmas in hotel rooms.
Scientists say extreme weather events like floods are getting much worse and more frequent due to climate change. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are warming the planet, changing the water cycle and putting more water vapour in the air. In some places this means more intense rain, quicker snowmelt and higher waters.
A graph posted March 8 by the International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board shows the amount of water flowing out of Lake Ontario and into the St. Lawrence system. The thick black line represents the amount so far in 2018, and the red line represents last year's level. Facebook screenshot
The International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board is already recording high levels for 2018. It said Tuesday that the level of Lac St. Louis, south of Montreal, is 54 cm above average, and 26 cm above last year at this time. Meanwhile, Lake Ontario is 30 cm above average and just three cm lower than where it was at this time last year.
The board said it was too early to judge whether the high outflow in February was a surefire indicator of spring flooding. "Historically, water levels in winter have not provided an accurate indicator of the peak later in spring," it said in a statement.
"Weather and hydrologic conditions play a much greater role than water regulation in influencing water levels, and while impossible to predict, the probability of a repeat of last spring's exceptional rains and subsequent high water levels is low."
The board is allowing the maximum amount of water possible to flow out of Lake Ontario towards Montreal, without causing flooding on Lac St. Louis, it said.
 
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