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Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

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  1. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by scotto View Post
    I can see that there was a definite drop in the lake level from just yesterday, could be just a change in wind direction. Also areas along the St. Lawrence around Prescott and Cornwall got hit pretty hard yesterday with storms, this will slow down the discharge rate.

    You are right there has been a slight dip in the level, latest 24 hour reading shows an average of 74.96 M. that down 3 cms since last Friday. The IJC (see story below) released a statement regarding the discharge from Lake Ontario and that it was a record amount.
    They also keep repeating this “Historically, water levels in winter have not provided an accurate indicator of the peak later in spring,” it said in a statement.
    What the IJC doesn’t mention is the other lakes upstream are still at record levels. While it is fantastic news to see that much water taken out, we need to still focus our sights on what still needs to pass thru here. Historically the IJC is correct however when the great lakes are at record levels and we still have a spring thaw to go thru, we are at a greater risk for flooding or high water damage/erosion. Let’s go back to 2016, the great lakes already were at higher than normal lake levels and action should have been taken in the fall of 2016 to lessen the impact. The IJC had the data but ignored it. Yes the record amount of rain fall last year did contribute but the underlying issue of the flooding was the already swollen great lakes. Lake Ontario is at the mercy of what water enters it from the great lakes basin, there is no dam to prevent it from coming in. We have a tsunami wave of water coming towards us from the great lakes system. Not to get ahead of ourselves but if Lakes Superior, Michigan and Huron stay at higher than normal lake levels we will have a greater chance again for flooding come 2019. Unless we have a drought over the great lakes basin this year, we need to prepare for higher lake levels especially if you throw in Climate Change and how it will keep us damp for the years to come. As I pointed out in a recent article, the IJC can change a plan if flooding is a concern or data proves such is a constant, I believe we have a case.

    let’s keep the fingers crossed that the record discharge continues, we need the buffer before the thaw starts
    Water flowing out of Lake Ontario hit record high last month
    By Carl Meyer in News, Energy, Politics | March 14th 2018

    Tri Vo and Audrey Bureau inspect the flooded backyard of a house in Gatineau, Que. on May 8, 2017. Photo by Alex Tétreault
    Previous story
    The average amount of water flowing out of Lake Ontario last month was the highest in recorded history, and a lake near Montreal has now swelled to 54 centimetres above average.
    Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River water levels are expected to stay above average into the spring, according to a new statement by the joint Canada-U.S. body in charge of regulating the water flow between them.
    The joint body said the probability of a repeat of last year’s heavy rain and high water levels, which led to Central Canada being pounded by severe flooding last spring and summer, was low at the moment.
    Even so, it said extreme conditions can still occur, and people living or working along Lake Ontario's shoreline should be prepared for a "full range of water levels."
    Last year, following one of the wettest Aprils in 100 years, the rising waters forced hundreds to evacuate around Lake Ontario, flooding over 5,000 homes in Quebec and closing federal government offices in Canada’s capital region. The military deployed over 1,500 personnel to help out. Over half a year later, some families were still without homes, spending Christmas in hotel rooms.
    Scientists say extreme weather events like floods are getting much worse and more frequent due to climate change. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are warming the planet, changing the water cycle and putting more water vapour in the air. In some places this means more intense rain, quicker snowmelt and higher waters.
    A graph posted March 8 by the International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board shows the amount of water flowing out of Lake Ontario and into the St. Lawrence system. The thick black line represents the amount so far in 2018, and the red line represents last year's level. Facebook screenshot
    The International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board is already recording high levels for 2018. It said Tuesday that the level of Lac St. Louis, south of Montreal, is 54 cm above average, and 26 cm above last year at this time. Meanwhile, Lake Ontario is 30 cm above average and just three cm lower than where it was at this time last year.
    The board said it was too early to judge whether the high outflow in February was a surefire indicator of spring flooding. “Historically, water levels in winter have not provided an accurate indicator of the peak later in spring,” it said in a statement.
    “Weather and hydrologic conditions play a much greater role than water regulation in influencing water levels, and while impossible to predict, the probability of a repeat of last spring’s exceptional rains and subsequent high water levels is low.”
    The board is allowing the maximum amount of water possible to flow out of Lake Ontario towards Montreal, without causing flooding on Lac St. Louis, it said.
    Last edited by Opie; 03-14-2018 at 12:39 PM.

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