Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

scotto

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Good morning,

Wednesday January 10th, the average level is at 74.81 M


Dec 27 – 74.71
By this reading, the level for Lake Ontario has gone almost 4". Looking at my canal level now with very little wave action, it doesn't seem to have moved much in last few weeks, up or down. We do have some warm temperatures today that will melt a lot of the snow and ice that is presently with us, so will see what tomorrow brings.
 

Opie

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By this reading, the level for Lake Ontario has gone almost 4". Looking at my canal level now with very little wave action, it doesn't seem to have moved much in last few weeks, up or down. We do have some warm temperatures today that will melt a lot of the snow and ice that is presently with us, so will see what tomorrow brings.
I can run the numbers again tomorrow, its not hard. Just not sure what the weather front will do to the lake level tomorrow as it approaches today and tomorrow.
 

Opie

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'Ice hills' form on Lake Ontario shore
The freezing along Lake Ontario in Olcott is a sight to see, and something that long-time residents of Olcott say they don't see every year.
Author: Jeff Preval
Published: 6:28 PM EST January 8, 2018
OLCOTT, NY - The freezing along Lake Ontario in Olcott is a sight to see, and something that long-time residents of Olcott say they don't see every year.
There are hills of ice along the shoreline right outside a row of waterfront homes on West Bluff in Olcott.
Some people say they haven't seen this type of freezing in years.
One long-time resident, Mike Taheri, says it's like being on the moon. But, even with this freezing, according to the National Weather Service, Lake Ontario is 14 percent frozen, with only the shoreline icing up.
"You get the waves coming in from the north and it just keeps building up and sprays like holding a hose in front of a fan real cold temperatures and starts to freeze on the railing and on the rocks, then it builds up mounds like mountains of ice," said Bob Kilroy, an Olcott resident.
Eventually this ice, of course, will all melt away. And, there have been some flooding issues along the shoreline here last year. Meteorologist Patrick Hammer says he doesn't think ice melt could cause flooding issues. He says snow melt is more of a concern and something we'll have to watch when the weather breaks.
© 2018 WGRZ


You can view the interview on the link below

http://www.wgrz.com/article/news/local/ice-hills-form-on-lake-ontario-shore/71-506266140

This got me thinking about the defensive ice wall barrier mother nature is building for us on the beach shoreline. The difference between the Olcott area and us, Olcott took a beating this year with flooding caused by the higher lake level but also when the storms came down from the north, crashing monster waves onto the shore there.

Looking at the lake level chart, last time we started with the lake being this high in January was in 2012. We hadn't yet moved here in 2012, therefore I cannot say how much ice coverage was on the lake back then or what the conditions were like. Knowing that instead of dropping the lake level now in preparations for the spring thaw, the IJC will raise it this year.

When the late winter storms come and the early spring thaw starts, all of the ice that looks oh so nice won't be. I am guessing at this point the lake to be maybe another 18" higher come March based on what the IJC graphs show. Having had property on south east region of Georgian Bay, I have witnessed the effects of late winter storms and how far the ice can travel onto land. This another reason I cannot understand why the IJC would elevate the lake level now, this gives the spring ice pack the ability to travel further inland. What is the IJC thinking ?
 

Opie

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I can run the numbers again tomorrow, its not hard. Just not sure what the weather front will do to the lake level tomorrow as it approaches today and tomorrow.

The average lake level over the past 24 hours is 74.83 M.

The numbers are skewed after midnight where the lake spike almost 8 cm from the previous 24 hrs and then came down
 

Opie

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Mother Nature maketh and now taketh away. The frozen ice wall along the beach shoreline melted away by last night. Lets hope she makes another with cold weather coming at us.
 

scotto

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'Ice hills' form on Lake Ontario shore
The freezing along Lake Ontario in Olcott is a sight to see, and something that long-time residents of Olcott say they don't see every year.
Author: Jeff Preval
Published: 6:28 PM EST January 8, 2018
OLCOTT, NY - The freezing along Lake Ontario in Olcott is a sight to see, and something that long-time residents of Olcott say they don't see every year.
There are hills of ice along the shoreline right outside a row of waterfront homes on West Bluff in Olcott.
We call them ice banks on the Beach, we had signs from the City warning people to stay off of them and they called them ice mounds. Always thought that they gave great protection from erosion and maybe added some lost sand each year we hsd them.
I guess something new to the south shore around Olcott.

Checked the water level today I still don't see much change with all the added rain and melting snow.

This is the Chief from the Rescue Unit standing on the edge of the ice bank during a winter exercise, he is about a half mile out in the lake.
 

Opie

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by the numbers at the peak of the storm on Monday January 15, Fisheries and Oceans Canada recorded a lake height of 74.986 M at 06:00. Later in the day when the pictures above were taken the lake dropped to 74.846 M
 

Opie

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A couple of news items from around the lake


http://www.newyorkupstate.com/weath...vious_lessons_learned_from_2017_flooding.html

Lake Ontario water level update: 'No obvious lessons' learned from 2017 flooding
Posted January 18, 2018 at 02:59 PM | Updated January 18, 2018 at 03:14 PM


By David Figura l dfigura@NYup.com
Lake Ontario’s water level is currently about 9 inches higher than the lake’s level last year at this time.
International Joint Commission officials who control the lake’s level year-round aren’t worried, despite flooding problems caused by high water levels during much of 2017 on the lake and the St. Lawrence River. They point to previous years when the lake was at this level during January with no dire consequences. They said the primary concern during the winter months, as it has been for decades, is managing ice formation on the St. Lawrence River.

As ice on the river forms, they said, the river needs “a stable ice cover” to prevent ice jams that could cause flooding along the river and water intake problems at the Moses-Saunders Dam on the river at Massena, N.Y. Water releases from the dam are the primary tool that the IJC uses to control Lake Ontario’s level.
“There continues to be a large amount of water in the lake system and that’s a concern,” according to Frank Bevacqua, spokesman for the International Joint Commission. As a result, there continues to be “extremely high” water outflows on the Upper St. Lawrence River at the Moses-Saunders Dam.

Bevacqua said there is currently an assessment underway by the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management Committee of the IJC of how Plan 2014 performed in 2017, with an eye toward the long-term operation of the plan.
“But the preliminary view is that there are no obvious lessons of things that need to be done differently,” he said.

Darren McGee
Last year was the first year that lake levels were managed by Plan 2014, which some officials, including Gov. Andrew Cuomo, blamed for last year’s flooding on the lake. IJC officials said that wasn't true.
In the above photo taken in late May, Gov. Cuomo visited the flooded Lake Ontario shoreline in Greece, N.Y. At that time, he directed State Parks to implement 5MPH speed limit for recreational vessels operating within 600 ft. of shore. He also announced $7 Million in state finding to assist homeowners impacted by flooding along Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence river and signed legislation to amend the Clean Waters Infrastructure Act of 2017 to expedite access to emergency financial assistance to municipalities across the state, including those effected by the flooding along the shores of Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River.


Keith Koralewski from the Buffalo office of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, is the U.S. regulation representative alternate to the IJC board and provides all the reports to the U.S./Canadian board from the American perspective.
He said the fact the lake’s water level is 9 inches higher now than last year is not significant, noting that overall 2016 was a drought year in the Lake Ontario and much of the Great Lakes watershed. He added that the lake’s level leading into the spring of 2017 was kept overall a little higher than an average year during the winter months because of the management of ice formation on the river, made difficult by nearly a half dozen, and unprecedented freezing/thawing stretches of weather – a phenomenon that was unusual.

Dennis Nett | dnett@syracuse.com
The bottom line, he said, is that it wasn’t the river’s management of lack of action during the winter of 2017, or water releases that ultimately had an impact on the lake’s high water level last year. It was the record amount of rainfall, coupled with the snowmelt in the Lake Ontario watershed, during last year’s late winter and early spring. The wet trend continued into the summer, keeping the lake high.
Making matters difficult last year concerning water releases at the dam, Koralewski said, was the flooding of Montreal downstream from the dam, which was doubly impacted by the high water levels of the Ottawa River, which merges with the St. Lawrence River at the Canadian City. At one point, thousands had to be evacuated from a section of the city. The water release levels at the dam were determined with an eye on minimizing the effect on Montreal.
There was a third factor to consider. The IJC is charged with keeping the St. Lawrence Seaway open for shipping. Releasing water from the dam at too high a level also makes the river unmanageable for shipping, which has a huge economic impact on the greater Lake Ontario area and beyond.
Lake facts
COMPARATIVE LAKE FACTS:
Lake level:
Jan. 17, 2017 – 74.63 meters
Jan. 17, 2018 – 74.86 meters
(A difference of 23 centimeters or 9 inches)
Water releases at the Moses-Saunders Dam
The water releases at the Moses Saunders Dam is currently higher, compared to last year at this time.
Koralewski said: “This is a little more difficult to answer as it can be quite variable this time of year depending on if ice is forming or not. The board is restricted to the I-limit when ice is forming, a J-limit to prevent week to week flows from increasing or decreasing too rapidly (which can destabilize ice) and the computerized flow, which is the maximum flow allowed by Plan 2014 if the I or J limits or other limits within the plan do not apply.
“The coming week (Jan. 20-26), the average flow should be 7,890 cubic meters per second (cms), which was set by the J-limit (again the limit which restricts flow from increasing too quickly from week to week. Last year during this week, the flow was set at 7,050 cms for the week.”

More on NYup.com
Lake Erie lake effect snow machine slowing, but Lake Ontario 'open for business'
In the above graphic, Lake Erie is nearly covered in ice (shown in gray), while Lake Ontario remains largely ice-free. Ice diminishes the amount of lake effect snow a lake can generate.




https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2018/01/17/2017-flooding-has-cost-city-845-million.html

2017 flooding has cost city $8.45 million
City staff recommend 2017 rent and fees be forgiven for island businesses as a result of lengthy closures.

Toronto Island businesses experienced varying degrees of loss during last year's historic flooding. (Sammy Hudes / Toronto Star file photo)
By Jennifer PagliaroCity Hall Bureau
Wed., Jan. 17, 2018
City staff say the flooding in 2017 that shut down Toronto Island Park for three months and devastated waterfront areas has cost the city’s parks, forestry and recreation division at least $8.45 million.
In a new report to the executive committee, staff recommend up to 100 per cent of the base licence fee or rent for tenants on the island be forgiven.
“While impacts have been seen across the whole of the City of Toronto’s waterfront, the flood disproportionally affected Toronto Island Park, resulting in the closure of the park until the end of July,” the staff report reads. “Water levels still remain above historic averages, the impact of which through the winter season is still unknown.”
An additional $7.38 million will also be required for short-term repairs and other mitigation, staff say, of which only $2 million is available in the 2018 budget. Long-term damage, compounded by freezing, is not yet known and will be considered in the 2019 budget, the report says.
Lake Ontario reached the highest-ever recorded level in May of last year at 75.93 metres above sea level, closing the island during a typically busy season, causing 70 landslides along the Scarborough Bluffs and creating other lasting damage.
Article Continued Below
The revenue losses from the ferry alone cost $6.34 million in 2017.
A dozen island businesses, including the Royal Canadian Yacht Club and Toronto Island Bicycle Rental, experienced varying degrees of loss, city staff say. They have not yet been charged for 2017 fees.
Any tenants or licensees who can demonstrate through financial statements that they have incurred a reduction in net income due to the closure of the Toronto Island Park and are current with their rent, fees and other financial obligations up to 2017 should qualify for up to 100 per cent abatement of 2017 fees, the staff report says.
That decision will ultimately be up to council, which meets starting Jan. 31.
In the future, staff say they are working with the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority and the newly hired chief resilience officer to assess long-term repairs and mitigation in the event of forthcoming severe weather. That work includes a Toronto Island Park flood plan, expected later this year.



http://www.newyorkupstate.com/weath...ather_buffalo_syracuse.html#incart_river_home
 

Opie

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A difference of nine inches isn't cause for concern after what we went through last year?
Looks like some are paying attention and also believe 8-9 inches is a cause of concern


http://wivb.com/2018/01/19/officials-expect-more-flooding-along-lake-ontario-this-spring/

Officials expect more flooding along Lake Ontario this spring
Public officials along the Lake Ontario shoreline say right now, all signs point toward more flooding this spring. In 2017, several communities along the lake were ripped apart by the high waters.
By Chris Horvatits, News 4 Reporter Published: January 19, 2018, 4:57 pm Updated: January 19, 2018, 5:41 pm

NEWFANE, N.Y. (WIVB) - Public officials along the Lake Ontario shoreline say right now, all signs point toward more flooding this spring. In 2017, several communities along the lake were ripped apart by the high waters.
According to data compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Lake Ontario waters in Olcott reached depths of 245.75 feet. That is about eight inches higher than the same date in 2017.
The International Joint Commission, which controls the water levels, says last year's wet spring was to blame for all of the flooding from Niagara County all the way to Watertown. But some have blamed the fact that water levels were already higher when spring began.
In Newfane, there was some erosion caused by the waves. The town supervisor has been watching water levels this winter. He says it would be silly not to expect more flooding this coming spring, and that it could be as bad as last spring.
"Can we handle it? I don't know," said Supervisor Timothy Horanburg. "A lot of our infrastructure has already been weakened from last year. The yacht club, they had an entire wall collapse and just now are getting that repaired at a cost of $160,000. We will handle it. We certainly don't want to be faced with that again."
To prepare, Newfane is getting the pumps they used last year maintenanced right now. They've also stored all of the sandbags they used in the DPW building, in case they need them again.
Emergency management coordinators from across the entire shoreline will be meeting in February to come up with a plan.
 

Opie

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Cheer leaders, where are they.

This is just one of the questions that go through my mind as I read the news articles on Lake Ontario. One thing that stands out is the lack of support for Plan 2014 prior to its implementation. I have found bits and pieces concerning the IJC held hearings around the lake with some remarks to not change the plan but I cannot find anything that is for the plan, that is the strange part. We know the IJC stated the previous plan was hard to maintain and the new plan is to "restore ecosystem health" as " it will continue to moderate extreme high and low levels". There must have been a tree hugging, frog loving environmental group somewhere to have pushed this to happen, supported this, protest marches, bring awareness to the dire situation the great lakes are in?? But I cannot find them, it's really hard to believe that the IJC some 14-16 years ago - before climate change was gaining attention, could foresee a problem. Heck even our own Canadian environmental activist Dr David Suzuki doesn't make mention of the Plan 2014 nor its merits ? Again where are the cheer leaders and the IJC doesn't count.

Here is nice article, stating we are nice people in Canada and we do not complain like our fellow Americans do. Sadly I beg to differ and crap is about to hit the fan here north of the border. The public lands that separate us from the Lake to protect us are being destroyed or eroded away. Infrastructure around the lake was heavily damaged or destroyed and now must be repaired or replaced at what costs.

https://www.democratandchronicle.co...ooding-fewer-problems-north-border/977629001/

Lake Ontario flooding: Fewer problems north of the border
Shoreline land use is different on the Canadian side of Lake Ontario.
Steve Orr and
Meaghan M. McDermott, Democrat and Chronicle

When Lake Ontario's waters rose at Kingston, on the Canadian shore near the lake's eastern end, a walking trail was ruined.
In Port Hope, a boardwalk had to close. In Clarington, Oshawa, Ajax, Mississauga, Oakville, Hamilton and St. Catherine's, parks went under water.

On the Canadian side of the lake, it was public land that bore the brunt of the floodwaters.
That's not to say that private property wasn't awash. Some lakefront residences suffered dampened basements, flooded yards or broken breakwalls, and the basement of a downtown Toronto high-rise took on water.

But property-owner complaints were sparse compared to the months-long outcry on the U.S. side of the lake.
In part this may be because Canadian citizens are said to be less likely than their American brethren to blame the flooding on lake-level regulators, and thus to accept it as an unavoidable natural event.
"Canadians are a little less quick to blame their government for any of the daily tribulations they face, and have a little more trust," said Lana Pollack, the U.S. chair of the group that sets the regulations, the International Joint Commission.
But the lack of private-sector outcry also reflects the fact that in Canada, there are fewer home and cottages in low-lying areas of the lakeshore.
"I have the sense there's a lot more zoning regulations that don't allow permanent structures in areas that have been susceptible to flooding," said Daniel Macfarlane, a professor at Western Michigan University who has studied lake-level regulation.
The Canadian preference for using flood-prone land for public space instead of residential development is said to date from the devastation from Hurricane Hazel in October 1954.
The hurricane, which had already killed 500 people in the Caribbean and the southeastern United States, passed over Lake Ontario and hit the Toronto area head-on.
Hazel dropped up to 8 inches of rain on areas that already were water-logged from earlier storms. Rivers and creeks rose dramatically, carrying away entire neighborhoods.
Eighty-one people died, including several whose houses had been washed into Lake Ontario.
Land-use reform followed the calamity.
"Canada ... made policy decisions to begin moving people back from the floodplain, understanding if it happened once it would happen again," related Lana Pollack, co-chair of the International Joint Commission. "They said 'Let's see what we can do about developing open space and park land rather than intensely developing the property so close to the shore.'"

Lana Pollack, U.S. chair of the International Joint Commission.
(Photo: International Joint Commission)
Much of the conversion of flood-prone properties into parks and wetlands was done long ago. But in some areas, the practice continues.
Officials in Clarington, a municipality about 40 miles east of downtown Toronto, have taken down a number of cottages and homes in a low-lying, erosion-prone stretch of the Lake Ontario shoreline there.
"We're buying some homes because they just won't survive," Carlo Pellarin, a Clarington planning official told the Democrat and Chronicle several years ago.
"We didn't own a lot of land along the waterfront and wanted to create a waterfront park area. That seemed to make some sense as well, given the erosion that's happening in this area," Pellarin said.
A dozen or more residences have been acquired over the years, most of them sold willingly by their owners and a few taken through eminent domain, he said. Clarington rented some of the cottages to their former owners on short-term leases.
Land-use regulations in both Ontario and New York discourage people from building new homes on vulnerable lakeshore property, but there's a sense the rules are enforced more strictly north of the border.
Said Chris Darling, chief administrative officer of the Central Lake Ontario Conservation Authority: "If somebody wanted to build or alter the structure in such a way it would put them at greater risk of flooding or erosion, they would be turned down."
 

Opie

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Seems that Army Corp of Engineers has modified their outlook for 2018 from their original projections and we do not need to build an ark, please see below.

Water levels for the previous year and the current year to date are shown as a solid line on the hydrographs. A projection for the next six months is given as a dashed line. This projection is based on the present condition of the lake basin and anticipated future weather. The shaded area shows a range of possible levels over the next six months dependent upon weather variations. Current and projected levels (solid and dashed lines) can be compared with the 1918-2015 average levels (dotted line) and extreme levels (shown as bars with their year of occurrence). The legend below further identifies the information on the hydrographs.
The levels on the hydrographs are shown in both feet and meters above (+) or below (-) Chart Datum. Chart Datum, also known as Low Water Datum, is a reference plane on each lake to which water depth and Federal navigation improvement depths on navigation charts are referred.
All elevations and plots shown in this bulletin are referenced to International Great Lakes Datum 1985 (IGLD 1985). IGLD 1985 has its zero base at Rimouski, Quebec near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River (approximate sea level

 

Opie

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It easy to pick apart predictions once made and are on-going as is the case for the graph below. Came across a news article yesterday that made me post the graph and today more news outlets continue to repeat the same news, but no one is checking the accuracy of the news? I only say this because did any one of the news outlets take a second to see where the lake level is in comparison to the graph, guess not. I am not splitting hairs here, saying that is out an cm or ¼ " but the lake was at 74.9 M @ 06:00 this morning. Which if you look at the below graph is where the lake level is to be by mid March. Granted I cherry picked a certain time and not the average, therefore to be fair, I will take Friday mornings average read and we can use it to compare assumptions. As for the plans to build an ark, keep them handy.

http://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/news/2018/01/24/lake-ontario-water-level-projection

Lake Ontario water levels projected to return to normal
By Spectrum News Staff | January 24, 2018 @9:18 AM
SHARE









High water levels on Lake Ontario were a big problem in 2017, and while future flooding can't be predicted, the Army Corps of Engineers does believe water levels will return to normal in the year ahead.
The corps recently released a forecast for the next six months. As a whole, it predicts that water levels on the great lakes will rise for the fifth straight year. However, Lake Ontario is the one lake that is projected to return to average water levels.
As of December, Lake Ontario was still nearly a foot above average, but that number is expected to level off by May.
The projection depends on how much rain and snow melt we get.
Last year, that combination sent water levels skyrocketing to record highs in May, June and July.



Seems that Army Corp of Engineers has modified their outlook for 2018 from their original projections and we do not need to build an ark, please see below.

Water levels for the previous year and the current year to date are shown as a solid line on the hydrographs. A projection for the next six months is given as a dashed line. This projection is based on the present condition of the lake basin and anticipated future weather. The shaded area shows a range of possible levels over the next six months dependent upon weather variations. Current and projected levels (solid and dashed lines) can be compared with the 1918-2015 average levels (dotted line) and extreme levels (shown as bars with their year of occurrence). The legend below further identifies the information on the hydrographs.
The levels on the hydrographs are shown in both feet and meters above (+) or below (-) Chart Datum. Chart Datum, also known as Low Water Datum, is a reference plane on each lake to which water depth and Federal navigation improvement depths on navigation charts are referred.
All elevations and plots shown in this bulletin are referenced to International Great Lakes Datum 1985 (IGLD 1985). IGLD 1985 has its zero base at Rimouski, Quebec near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River (approximate sea level

 
Last edited:

Opie

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Good morning,

Friday January 26th, the average level is at 74.95 M


The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.6 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2007, January lake level average was 74.63 M - 2017 data has yet to be updated to the charts

Next reading date is Friday February 9th

Reading date / Lake Average 2018

Jan 12 - 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 - 74.71 M
Dec 8 - 74.795
Nov 24 - 74.89
Nov 9 - 74.929
Oct 27 - 74.83
Oct 10 - 74.95
Sept 29 - 74.99
Sept 15 - 75.12
Sept 1 - 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 4 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71


I made a slight error in a past comment regarding where the lake level is to be forecasted in March
"the lake was at 74.9 M @ 06:00 this morning. Which if you look at the below graph is where the lake level is to be by mid March"
It should have stated that is where the they pegged the lake to be on the "high end"!

When the Army corp of Engineers released the new forecast for this year, they made comment regarding the great lakes will be higher for the beginning of this year. The only exception is Lake Ontario, it is to come down to a normal average by June. The only possible way this can be achieved is if they leave the dams on maximum discharge, we do not get a wet spring and Montreal doesn't flood. If the Montreal region does flood again, just like last year, the dam discharge is greatly reduced backing up the water into Lake Ontario-the start of our flooding and damage.

Below is a neat picture to keep things in perspective and to remind us that all that higher than normal water in the other great lakes still has to go through Lake Ontario



more news from around the lake

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...forecast-great-lakes-levels-rising/109719528/
Forecast: Great Lakes' water levels keep rising
Leonard N. Fleming, The Detroit News Published 5:36 p.m. ET Jan. 22, 2018

Lake Superior at the mouth of the Hurricane River in October. The Great Lakes are expected to rise again this spring for the fifth straight year with all five lakes expected to have above-average levels after hitting bottom at record-low levels in 2013.The recovery is especially strong in Lake Superior, which forecasters estimate will break a record high level set in the mid-1980s, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.(Photo: Bryan Mitchell / Special to Detroit News)
CONNECTTWEET 7 LINKEDIN 5 COMMENTEMAILMORE
The Great Lakes are expected to rise again this spring for the fifth straight year with all five lakes expected to have above-average levels after hitting bottom at record-low levels in 2013.
The recovery is especially strong in Lake Superior, which forecasters estimate will break a record high level set in the mid-1980s, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It recently released its extended forecast for January through June for lakes Erie, Ontario and Michigan-Huron, and for St. Clair, which isn't considered a Great Lake.
"We're above average in all of the Great Lakes," said Lauren Fry, a hydraulic engineer and forecaster for the Corps' Detroit office. "So Lake Superior is one we're keeping an eye on. The December levels were about four inches below the record high level."
The forecast is good news for boaters and the shipping industry, which lobbied for more dredging of harbors and shallow waterways during the lower lake levels earlier in the decade. In addition, property owners can enjoy more traditional shorelines.
The rising lake levels during the past few years has allowed commercial vessels to carry more cargo and recreational boats to better navigate marinas. While lake levels typically dip during the winter, all of the lakes remained above their December long-term average water levels, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.
"The issue of boating safely, and knowing what we call the rules of the road, is that you don't want the bottom of your boat to hit things and damage your props and get stuck in and things like that," said Joe Tatham, a two-time past president of the Detroit Power Squadron, a group dedicated to educating people on water safety and other issues. "The more water you have under your hulls, the safer it is to travel around."
Five years ago, lower-than-normal lake levels helped trigger a $21 million state emergency dredging program for 58 harbors in Michigan.
Four of the Great Lakes have water levels well above average but Lake Ontario is forecast to be "closer to average for the end of the period" that ends in June, Fry said.
Lake Superior levels could "attain or even surpass record high levels by May or June, she said, but "that's a pretty small chance in our forecast."
By June, the Army Corps estimates that Lake St. Clair's level will rise from just more than three feet above average this month to between four and five feet in the summer. Lake Michigan-Huron will fall just short of four feet above average in June if estimates hold, officials say.
The Corps works with Environment and Climate Change Canada to produce the six-month forecast of the Great Lakes water averages.
But a down side to rising lake levels is the increased risk in some areas of erosion along the lakes' shorelines. The Michigan Department of Environmental Quality tracks high risk erosion areas, which typically erode at an average rate of one foot or more annually during at least 15 years.
"They should be prepared for additional issues if we continue to see these higher water levels," Fry said.
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lfleming@detroitnews.com
(313) 222-2620
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Opie

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31 days into the new year and the IJC finally noticed that the lake level is higher than it should be for this time of the year. WOW !



http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/...illibrand-push-for-great-lakes-study-20180201


IJC to increase Lake Ontario outflows as Schumer, Gillibrand push for Great Lakes study
By GORDON BLOCK
GBLOCK@WDT.NET
PUBLISHED: THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2018 AT 12:30 AM

Officials from the International Joint Commission raised the outflows from Lake Ontario as they noted that water levels have remained above normal levels through the winter.
Water outflows were raised on Wednesday afternoon from 282,517 cubic feet per second, or 8,000 cubic meters per second, to 289,580 cubic feet per second, or 8,200 cubic meters per second, an increase of 2.5 percent.
"Outflows continue to be maximized in response while making intermittent and temporary reductions to manage challenging ice conditions in several areas of the St. Lawrence River," said a news release from the binational organization.
The increased outflow comes as frustration still rages about high water levels in 2017, which caused tens of millions of dollars of damage in New York and affected business in the area.
Water levels reached a level of 245.77 feet on Jan. 30, which is about 12 inches above average. However, IJC officials noted the water level is 3.7 feet below all-time record levels seen in June.
The outflow changes happen as the IJC looks to deal with ice conditions on the lake and river. Officials said they are only able to increase outflows when there are formations of solid, stable ice cover.
Without such cover, the risk of ice jams increases.
"These ice jams can clog the river, forcing sudden, significant flow reductions and an increased risk of localized flooding," the IJC news release said.
The IJC also said winter water levels are not an accurate indicator of peak spring water levels.
"Hydrologic conditions have a much greater influence, and while impossible to predict, it is unlikely that last spring's combination of exceptional rainfall, snowmelt and rapidly rising inflows from Lake Erie will all repeat themselves and lead to extremely high water levels again this year," the IJC news release said.
However, the commission also said that residents should be prepared for "the full range of water levels" both high and low that are possible.
Questions about water levels come as American lawmakers push for more protections on areas around Lake Ontario and other Great Lakes.
Earlier in the day on Wednesday, Sens. Charles E. Schumer and Kirsten E. Gillibrand called for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to include the Great Lakes Coastal Resiliency Study in the president's budget request for 2019.
The study would highlight vulnerable areas and identify ways to increase shoreline resiliency. The pair noted that a similar study was completed after Superstorm Sandy.
"After the devastating Lake Ontario flood waters that eroded shorelines and inundated homes, business, and infrastructure causing millions in damages, we need to bolster our Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River shoreline and make it more resilient against any future flooding," Sen. Schumer said, in a provided statement.
Sen. Gillibrand called such a study a "critical first step" in protecting waterfront communities.
"While communities along the Lake Ontario shoreline continue to recover from the disastrous floods over the last year, we must also do everything we can to prepare against future risk," she said.
 

scotto

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City should prepare now for island flooding this spring

Your letters: City should prepare now for island flooding this spring

Thu., Feb. 1, 2018
Toronto Star
Looking at the Great Lake water tables and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers information, it is obvious that water levels on the Great Lakes are slightly higher than last year. Couple that with the abundance of water in the Mississippi basin due to the storms and snow in the mid-west states, and the U.S. will not be opening the floodgates at Chicago again this spring. This was a major factor in last year’s flooding disaster on the Toronto Islands.

Should the current weather patterns continue, we will see even higher levels than last year in the Great Lakes. And with higher levels of snow pack in the north this year, the flooding could last longer.

I hope Toronto officials are on top of this, since they sure were not last year. Steps should be taken now to prevent the same level of damage and loss.

Brian Smith, Toronto
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/let...pare-now-for-island-flooding-this-spring.html

Read more about:
Great Lakes
https://www.thestar.com/topic.great_lakes.html
 

scotto

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Water levels reached a level of 245.77 feet on Jan. 30, which is about 12 inches above average. However, IJC officials noted the water level is 3.7 feet below all-time record levels seen in June.
But the lake level is always higher in the spring months than the winter???
 

Opie

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But the lake level is always higher in the spring months than the winter???
Yes you are correct, based on the old plan which tried to mimic what mother nature did prior to the dams being built. The new plan now raises the lake level to near spring like levels now. Which in my opinion is a disaster in the making. Later on today I will post my explanation and I want you to poke it apart to see if I am wrong.
 

Opie

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Since I got schooled on lake levels by the IJC representative last year for which I do sincerely thank our Mr Chad Collins for, it has made me appreciate and understand the Great Lakes a little better.

Mankind trying to impose its own way on a natural resource, thinking that they can better manage it better then mother nature will not work out. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I am still looking for those cheerleaders that instigated the push to change the old plan, not to rant on them but to understand what they saw wrong with the old plan. When asked why the IJC changed the plan, they answered back by stating the old plan was difficult to keep the lake level within such a tight range and to better improve ecosystems health along the shores. The old plan was doing harm to the ecosystem, this is where the tree hugging, frog loving environmental cheerleading activists come in or should have.

Here is a line that the IJC keeps repeating

"the commission also said that residents should be prepared for "the full range of water levels" both high and low that are possible"

The IJC also stated that the old plan if it were still in place last year, we would have still experienced the flooding which is true. Most of the comments made by the IJC hold some truth, they remind me of an accountant trying to explain a budget. At the end of the day you have to determine what the answer is when the IJC presents you a glass with water in it, is it half full or half empty, because the IJC will tell you the answer that best suits them.

Let's talk about the line the IJC keeps repeating "the full range of water levels" and again how true this will be, except for Lake Ontario. By repeating this mantra, the IJC hopes to calm those affected around Lake Ontario with the optimism that water levels will drop. This is where I hate to break the news, we will never see drastic low levels ever for Lake Ontario, won't happen. Here's why, let's take a look again at the picture below



One of the early articles I posted had an interview from one of the IJC staff members. Commenting on the previous year's summer (2016) that Lake Ontario lower basin/upstate New York was experiencing a drought. But you wouldn't have noticed it looking at the lake level per the Fisheries and Oceans Canada charts, it looked normal compared to previous years. The staff member commented that as the drought was occurring they were not focused on the increase of water entering the lake from Lake Erie, that was compensating the loss of input from upstate NY. In fact since 2012 after a 15 year drought, the upper Great Lakes are on a very fast recovery to where the current levels are very near their highest recorded levels ever. Looking at the picture above tells you that the large mass volume of water has one place to head -Lake Ontario before leaving via the St Lawrence. The picture also shows where the dams are in the Great Lakes system. Lakes Superior and Ontario are the only two Great Lakes that have them. Lakes Michigan/Huron ( which are one lake) and Erie cannot slow the release of water with in them, this is why we will see another summer of higher than normal water level for Lake Ontario. The IJC states in this past Wednesday news release "it is unlikely that last spring's combination of exceptional rainfall, snowmelt and rapidly rising inflows from Lake Erie will all repeat themselves and lead to extremely high water levels again this year," well then why the heck on Wednesday did the IJC increase the outflow from Lake Ontario because Lake Erie's out flow is already high and you cannot stop it. We still have the spring conditions to deal with, all of this tips the scale towards spring flooding again. Also in the past winter months pre Plan 2014, the lake level has been dropped for this one specific reason ( mimicking pre dams and mother nature ) to accept the large amount of water that the spring thaw and rains will bring.

The commercial shipping season on the Great Lakes commences again in 2 months and the ships love the new high water levels. This past fall, one of the Hamilton Spectator Saturday issues, posted numbers for 2017 regarding that shipping was up 10% on the great lakes over the previous year. This can be attributed to stronger economies on both sides of the border but also with deeper waters the ships can haul larger tonnage loads. When the flooding started last year, the IJC defended the higher lakes level by stating they need to look at all interests using the lakes. These interest include recreational boaters, commercial fishing , commercial shipping industry and residents living around the lakes. The IJC at last did listen to the residents around the lake by finally increasing the outflow from Lake Ontario but not enough so that it would harm commercial shipping in the St Lawrence or on the Great Lakes

Once the Mosses Saunders Power Dam was built the IJC back then implemented Plan 1958, which all of us grew up with. This dam also benefited those downstream, by protecting them from spring flooding. They would still see flooding but not as often and as bad however town and city planners there also took advantage of this land on a "natural flood plain" that no longer flooded. They allowed homes & businesses to be built upon this "natural flood plain" causing a major problem down the road. Fast forward to last year when the calls came for the IJC to increase the dams discharge to lessen the flooding, the IJC stated they could not as (for example) parts of Montreal on the "natural flood plain" were already flooded and if the IJC opened it any further then damage would be devastating. Lake Ontario took the brunt of the flooding for months because these planning officials allowed the use on a "natural flood plain" for residential and business properties.

Now 2 U.S. Senators are asking for a study to be done "to bolster our Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River shoreline and make it more resilient against any future flooding," Sen. Schumer said, in a provided statement. Sen. Gillibrand called such a study a "critical first step" in protecting waterfront communities " but this was a several months long flood we went thru. Not one that came one weekend and left. Building shorewalls won't cut it maybe revetments or levees perhaps if there is space but most property owners will not like the looks and what about the cost to build these structures? No instead, do a study on expropriation of property downstream of the Mosses Saunders dam, property downstream in the areas that flooded and take it another metre higher should be expropriated. It's not easy to force people to move but now has come a time. Especially since the new Plan 2014 took away early human intervention if need be, to increase the discharge of Lake Ontario and if we had a 15 year long drought you can have conversely have a 15 years of wet weather like last year. Climate change promises more warm moist air over the Great Lakes and a plan must be in place to move large inventories of water efficiently out of the Great Lakes basin not hold it in. The expropriation may also not go too well with 2 of the Canadian Commissioners who are from Montreal or was the new Plan 2014 their way of preserving the ground they are on, coincidently the Canadian Prime Minister happens to have a riding near this area in Montreal

Well Scott et al
What do you think or say ?
 
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