Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

scotto

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Good morning

The past weeks lack of rain has gone a long way to help get the lake down, the lake is almost where they had predicted it to be for this date.

Friday Sept 29th average level was at 74.99M


Next read date is Oct 13th.

Little news relating to the lake levels now that it’s come down some. South of the border they will be looking for answers as to why this happened. I do not believe they will get any new answers just hope the IJC keeps releasing as much water as possible. We still have the other great lakes record water levles to deal with by next spring.

http://www.wwnytv.com/story/36462025/what-caused-this-years-flooding-lawmakers-want-to-find-out
The level at the canal has finally hit the bottom of rail on the north wall and is still dropping. My concern is that there been so much pressure to bring the levels down that they will keep on going and the lake level will be too low. What if we have a big drought next season?
 

Opie

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The level at the canal has finally hit the bottom of rail on the north wall and is still dropping. My concern is that there been so much pressure to bring the levels down that they will keep on going and the lake level will be too low. What if we have a big drought next season?
IJC did promise that we may see higher lake levels and lower levels as well. They came thru on the first promise and I believe they will on the second. But the lower level will not be seen until after the shipping season ends. If we do get another drought, IJC has the ability to keep Lake Ontario at a safe level with releasing more water into it. Remember last years drought and looking at the lake, you would be hard pressed to see much of a change. Time will tell, hey they could throw a monkey wrench into this and increase the lake level early again, like they did this year.
 

Opie

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Good morning

The lake level is on the high side from this week's wicked storm, with winds blowing at 68 kms - mainly NNE. So I using the data prior to its arrival from the 10th, in doing so there is little change from the last read

http://www.thesuburban.com/news/lake...1cab470c0.html

Tuesday October 10th average level was at 74.95M

Reading date / Lake Average
July 22 - 75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18 - 75.47
Sept 1 - 75.28
Sept 15 - 75.12
Sept 19 - 74.99

Next read date is Oct 27th.


Earlier this week at a hearing the IJC board members defended Plan 2014 and also blamed it. Mr Frank Sciremammano from the IJC was quoted as to why the Plan does not allow them to take action in lowering the lake level even if they have the knowledge it will flood.

""We could have a perfect forecast a month in advance that we are going to exceed the trigger," Sciremammano said. "We're not allowed to do anything."

Here is the news article regarding the meeting
http://wskgnews.org/post/lake-ontario-flooding-hearing-reveals-frustrations-plan-2014#stream/0


More predictions
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/n...-spike-in-great-lakes-water-temperature/86724

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/10/10/should-toronto-islands-get-ready-for-another-flood.html


more news from around the lake
http://www.wkbw.com/news/cuomo-considering-special-session-for-lake-ontario-flooding

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/...-bill-rises-for-city-but-province-won-t-help/
 

scotto

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Earlier this week at a hearing the IJC board members defended Plan 2014 and also blamed it. Mr Frank Sciremammano from the IJC was quoted as to why the Plan does not allow them to take action in lowering the lake level even if they have the knowledge it will flood.

“"We could have a perfect forecast a month in advance that we are going to exceed the trigger," Sciremammano said. "We're not allowed to do anything."
If they are not allowed to do anything, why are they there?

Thanks for the links, will read through.
 

scotto

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From Opie's links;

Flood, rainstorm bill rises for city, but province won't help


Sep 29, 2017
by Matthew Van Dongen „³
Hamilton Spectator|

At the same time, studies are only beginning on the soggy beach strip to determine if new measures are needed to prevent basement flooding. The city started regularly pumping out excess water from those beach strip streets in May, and only stopped this month, McKinnon said, with an associated bill of about $660,000.
Whole article;
https://www.thespec.com/news-story/...-bill-rises-for-city-but-province-won-t-help/


I have a brand new house across from me that has been pumping since January and still is, the City let this same builder build another "pumper" behind me. After spending all that money, you would think that they would put an end to it.
 

Opie

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looking at the lake level charts, you can see that Sunday afternoons storm dropped the lake level by Burlington by 19 cm. From noon to 6 pm it dropped then slowly started tor rise back to its original level
 

Opie

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Sad news folks, expect more high water damage and flooding per the IJC but they do not know when.

The IJC has been defending their " Plan 2014 " over the past couple of weeks, Channel 7 news in Buffalo has a 90 second interview below

http://www.wkbw.com/news/ijc-chair-says-lake-ontario-will-flood-again-doesn-t-know-when

I found one remark laughable "During a presentation at the Great Lakes Restoration Conference at the Hyatt Hotel in Buffalo, IJC representatives argued that if it were left to Mother Nature to control the levels on Lake Ontario, the flooding would be much worse because of 20-year cycles for extreme flooding."

Well, if Mother nature was in charge let's say hypothetically speaking- we would not have the Mosses Saunders dam and such, Lake Ontario would flow freely out to the Atlantic Ocean via the St Lawrence. Along this path of discharge, portions of Montreal and other human establishments currently built on a " natural flood plain " would not be there. Lake Ontario's water level would rise and fall - we would adapt, somewhat like it was prior to 1955. Sure past records prior to 1955 showed we have had similar high lake level events but for a very short period of time not for several months like we experienced this year. Mother Nature will not hold water back, she will let it flow in and out as fast as possible. Would it be worse - not a chance.

Only good news is that the IJC will review this year's flooding, make a report and table it next spring. We can only hope they will improve upon it.

What we do know and what to expect so far with Plan 2014:
Lake Ontario must hit its high water mark ( they call it a "trigger ) before we can open up the dams to ease flooding concerns. Not prior to, even though their own data could show flooding will occur a month in advance
Discharge must be kept in check to not allow flooding down river. Ie portions of Montreal, even if this means flooding the Lake Ontario basin for a longer period of time
Next spring we will again start with a higher lake level
The other great lakes still have a higher than normal amount of water to pass onto Lake Ontario


And another video interview
http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/news03/ijc-report-to-assess-lake-ontario-flooding-video-20171016

The International Joint Commission will look to assess this year's record high water levels and flooding on Lake Ontario in a report that's expected to come out next year.The planned report was discussed at multiple points during Tuesday's hearing about the flooding at Mexico High School as IJC officials took questions about ways the flooding could be averted."The Canadian and the U.S. government will both be looking at the post-flood assessment, what could be done on the U.S. side, what could be done on the Canadian side," said Stephen Durrett, alternate co-chairman of the commission's International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board.
Frank L. Bevacqua, IJC information officer, said the report by the commission's Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management Committee is set to arrive in March or April. Multiple officials, including Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, have blamed the IJC for the flooding, with some saying the board prioritized Canadian interests or those of shipping on the St. Lawrence Seaway instead of residents on the lake's southern shore. Others directed their anger toward the IJC's Plan 2014 management plan, instituted this year. IJC officials have said the flooding was a result of intense rain and runoff, which in April and May broke the rainfall record for any two consecutive months. State Sen. Patricia A. Ritchie, R-Heuvelton, who organized Tuesday's meeting, said local residents needed answers for what happened this year. She said early projections had water levels lowering in a matter of weeks, leaving residents unprepared for a full spring and summer of high water. "It's bad enough they went through it this year," she said. "I don't want people to go through this again next year." The senator said she hoped the IJC report will involve more input from affected stakeholders, and perhaps more flexibility to release water prior to hitting certain thresholds."It just seemed there wasn't enough coordination, certainly when Plan 2014 was put into place," she said. "It listed in the plan that there's supposed to be some way to address flooding and mitigating the risk, and that seems to be the opposite of what happened."She also expressed a desire for the IJC to add an appointee to its main board with connections to the north country, and to meet more often."I think it's important the people on the ground, who are affected by this, have a seat at the table," Sen. Ritchie said. Though none of the IJC appointees are New Yorkers, four of five American members of the commission's International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board, which regulates the water levels, have strong ties to Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River.
Thomas E. Brown is from Cape Vincent, Robert J. Campany is from Clayton, Anthony M. "Tehera'tats" David is from Akwesasne and Frank Sciremammano Jr. is from Rochester."They can only make changes to a certain extent," Sen. Ritchie said. "I think there should be representation on the IJC."At Tuesday's meeting, IJC representatives said they wanted a factual basis for reflecting on this year's events.Bill Werick, technical director for the IJC, called for the group to collaborate with homeowners "who I know are angry right now.""When your home is flooded, it's hard to underestimate the impact that that has on your life. You lose all control over everything you have. So you would expect people to be very emotional about this," Mr. Werick said. "Then there's the hard part, because in order to make things better in the future, we actually have to figure out what could be done."Water levels were measured at 245.78 feet on Thursday, about a foot higher than average levels recorded in October 2016
 
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scotto

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From one of your earlier links;

"Variable ice cover, increased storm intensity and warmer temperatures are changing how water levels and flows impact coastal communities, recreational boating and commercial navigation, drinking water, hydropower production, and the system’s ecological health. The current water management criteria are based on the limited range of Lake Ontario water supplies that were recorded from the 1860s to the 1950s. These criteria have created an unrealistic expectation that Lake Ontario water levels can be maintained within a four-foot range (1.22 meters). Over 50 years of experience, including the low levels of 196-65 and the high levels in the mid-1970s, 1993 and 1998, have shown that it is not possible to keep the lake within this range under more wide-ranging water supply conditions."



It seems IJC has no idea what they are doing?

On a positive note, been checking the water level canal daily and there has been a small continuous drop. We are now a few inches below the rail on the north wall.
 

Opie

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Good morning

The lake continues to drop

http://www.thesuburban.com/news/lake...1cab470c0.html

Friday October 27th average level was at 74.83 M

Reading date / Lake Average
July 22 - 75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18 - 75.47
Sept 1 - 75.28
Sept 15 - 75.12
Sept 29 - 74.99
Oct 10 - 74.95

Next read date is Nov 10th.

News south of the border, looks like the IJC will get new board members and the sense is the current Plan 2014 will be changed once they are in place. We will have to wait and see

http://www.niagara-gazette.com/news...cle_271855fa-64aa-5773-b604-3f44296ee92f.html

here is the story

U.S. Rep. Chris Collins says the Trump Administration has selected three new appointees for the International Joint Commission, the agency that approved the controversial Lake Ontario water regulation plan known as Plan 2014.
Collins and other upstate New York Republicans have for months called on President Donald Trump to replace the U.S. commissioners on the IJC, a bi-national organization that mediates issues along U.S. and Canadian boundary waters.
They blame the IJC and Plan 2014 for this year's high water levels on Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. The flooding has caused tens of millions of dollars in damages to coastal residential, commercial and municipal property.
Yet Trump has thus far made no mention of the issue.
Collins' announcement, in a phone interview with the US&J on Wednesday, is the first indication the administration is moving ahead on replacing the remaining U.S. commissioners.
The Clarence Republican said the new appointees are currently being vetted. Once that process is done, it will be up to the U.S. Senate to confirm them to the posts.
"That vetting process is underway now, with a sense of getting it done as soon as we can," Collins said.
Many Western New Yorkers affected by the flooding have urged Trump to appoint new commissioners who will vote in a new lake level control plan. Some have even formed advocacy groups that rally every few weeks for just that purpose.
While offering no details on the administration's choices, Collins said those constituents would not be disappointed.
"I can assure all Western New Yorkers, especially everyone on Lake Ontario, they will be very pleased with our new commissioners," Collins said.
Asked whether the new commissioners will oppose Plan 2014, Collins said: "That's a pretty safe statement. That would be our goal."
The two remaining U.S. commissioners, Rich Moy and chair Lana Pollack, have submitted their resignations but remain as holdovers. The third commissioner, Dereth Glance, resigned last summer, and her seat has remained vacant ever since.
IJC commissioners and spokespeople have long maintained that high precipitation and unusual winter weather caused the nearly 3 feet of extra water on the lake (at its late May peak). They also tout the plan's expected benefits to coastal wetlands and the creatures that inhabit them.
During a recent stop in Buffalo, for the Great Lakes Restoration Conference, Pollack reportedly defended Plan 2014, saying it did not contribute at all to the flooding.
But even with three new commissioners opposed, Plan 2014 may remain in place. Approval of a new plan requires a majority vote of the IJC, meaning at least one of the three Canadian commissioners would have to support it.
Collins said Canadians residing along Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River were "blindsided" by this year's flooding and want out of Plan 2014.
Yet there appears to be few mentions of opposition in some of Southern Ontario's largest newspapers, such as the Toronto Sun and Toronto Star, aside from reporting on its U.S. critics.
One Brighton, Ontario, area resident told the US&J that Plan 2014 and its supposed impact have captured little interest on her side of the lake.
Still, Collins insisted Canadians are growing increasingly critical of the plan.
"I think the Canadians want it gone as well, or modified," Collins said. "I'm fairly confident that the tragedies that occurred this spring (are linked) to Plan 2014, and we're gonna get that corrected
 

Opie

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Good morning

I used the data prior to last night's weather disturbance, which dropped the lake around us by 2-3 inches.

Scott seems your are correct in that the lake level hasn't really changed over the last two weeks, it should have gone down not up slightly. The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.7 M

http://www.thesuburban.com/news/lake...1cab470c0.html

Thursday November 9th average level was at 74.929 M

Reading date / Lake Average
July 22 - 75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18 - 75.47
Sept 1 - 75.28
Sept 15 - 75.12
Sept 29 - 74.99
Oct 10 - 74.95
Oct 27 - 74.83

Next read date is Nov 24th.

News over the last couple of weeks has the IJC taking their horse and pony show around to various towns by the lake, here in Canada and in the USA. The outcome was the same at each, IJC defends plan 2014 and at the end questions are still not fully answered by the IJC. But one thing is for certain, with this plan in place and how it is regulated, we are guaranteed to have high waters and floods again.

http://www.quintenews.com/2017/11/brighton-council-gets-update-water-level-control-measures/161308/
https://www.insidebelleville.com/ne...io-will-reach-record-highs-again-experts-say/

Below is from last night, finally someone pointed out that plan 2014 protects those past the dam ( downstream in Quebec )
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/2017/11/09/lake-ontario-flooding-plan-2014/848497001/

After a spring and summer of flooding and erosion along the Lake Ontario shoreline, water levels have subsided to near-normal levels.
But concern about this year's flooding and the possibility it could occur again soon remains high.
As evidence of that, 150 people turned out Thursday afternoon for a state Senate hearing on Lake Ontario water levels held in Wayne Central High School in Ontario, Wayne County.
Flood warning: Lake Ontario waves, high winds expected to cause flooding, 'significant' erosion
More: Be prepared: Weather service issues three foul weather advisories
The purpose of the gathering, according to state Sen. Pamela Helming, R-Canandaigua, a co-sponsor, was to "shed light on what happened, why it happened and what we can do to prevent it from happening again."
Sixteen experts and advocates were scheduled to testify, with each of them subjected to questioning from a panel of nine state lawmakers.
Much of the give-and-take had to do with the working of Plan 2014, the new regulatory regimen that governs how much water is released from Lake Ontario through a huge dam on the St. Lawrence River.
The plan was created over a 16-year period by the International Joint Commission, a U.S-Canada treaty organization, and approved by the U.S. and Canadian governments in 2016. It was implemented in January, less than three months before lake levels began a precipitous rise.
The IJC and other experts insist that unprecedented rainfall and river flows in the eastern Great Lakes region were responsible for the high water. "The reality is water level regulations will not eliminate flooding," said Tony David, a member of the appointed board oversees discharges from the lake.
Shoreline residents and other critics of the plan believe it did in fact contribute to the flooding along the lake and river last spring.
They also believe regulators could have done more to prevent the high water, in part by keeping the lake level extra-low in the wintertime. "It feels there was no consideration given to what if? - what if we have record levels of precipitation," Helming said at one point.
Frank Sciremammano, an engineer from Brighton who sits on the water-level board aired his concerns that Plan 2014 could result in more frequent flooding and that it favors downstream interests in Quebec at the expense of those in New York.
More: Shared struggle: Flood waters in Rochester, Montreal trigger balancing act
He also lamented the fact that under the new plan, the board of which he's been a member since 1995 is not allowed to intervene more quickly to address unusually high or low water.
"Our role is to implement the plan and apologize for the results," he said.
Lana Pollack, the U.S. chair of the IJC, also presented testimony before the state legislative group. She echoed others who said that neither Plan 2014 nor any other plan to regulate Lake Ontario could prevent high water when natural factors conspire to produce it.
Lake Ontario shoreline flooding through the decades
She also implored the lawmakers to embrace that point and focus their attention not on eliminating flooding but minimizing damage.
"If you want to give your constituents what they deserve ... don't promise what you can't deliver," she said.
Helming, whose district includes Webster and shoreline towns in Wayne and Oswego counties, was instrumental in securing the state's $45 million Lake Ontario shoreline relief flooding program, which offers up to $50,000 to residential property owners to repair homes or protective breakwalls damaged by record high water on the lake this spring and summer.
The program initially funded $15 million to homeowners, with the balance to be split between businesses and municipalities that suffered damage. In October, Gov. Andrew Cuomo called for a special session of the state Legislature to appropriate an additional $35 million to the flood relief program
 
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scotto

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Thanks for the update, it doesn't seem like there were any final conclusions from the hearings, maybe more to come?

My unofficial lake level meter shows that the hasn't dropped in the last week or so, picture attached taken November 8th.
 

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Opie

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The chance of any change will depend on the US board members persuading President Trump to pull the US out of the plan. If it were to happen, it is not clear if we would go back to the previous plan until both sides can hammer it out. Frank Sciremammano (U.S,) is currently the only voice on the board that recognizes the harm plan 2014 has done and who it protects. Coincidently, 2 of the 3 Canadian board members are from Montreal which Sciremammano says the plan protects. The board keeps pounding their mantra at the hearings that 16 years of research went into this and its odd that no one would notice those downstream from the dam would benefit the most in being protected from flooding.

Here is another article about the hearings
http://www.monroecopost.com/news/20171113/regulators-blamed-for-flooding-on-lake-ontario


Sen. Pam Helming says lake-level plan failed, caused historic flooding along Lake Ontario shoreline
While scientists say nothing could have prevented the historic flooding this year along Lake Ontario, politicians blame regulators.
At a public hearing last week, state Sen. Pam Helming, R-Canandaigua, blamed lake-level managers for flooding this spring along the lake and the St. Lawrence River.
Helming was one of four state senators and six Assembly members on a panel Thursday to hear concerns and question authorities at the hearing at Wayne Central High School in Ontario, Wayne County. More than 150 people attended.
"It feels there was no consideration given to 'what if'? - what if we have record levels of precipitation," said Helming in grilling members of the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board. That board and the International Joint Commission bore the brunt of blame Thursday for shoreline flooding that closed roads and destroyed homes and businesses hit by a lake level rise of more than a foot.
At issue is a new set of regulations called Plan 2014. An update of an earlier plan, the latest regulations contain new "triggers" for lowering or increasing water output during periods of extreme highs or lows through a huge dam on the St. Lawrence River. The International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board decides whether to increase or decrease outflow from Lake Ontario. The IJC is a U.S-Canada treaty organization that over a 16-year period created Plan 2014. The plan was implemented in January, less than three months before lake levels began rising.
Helming asked why concerns about extreme flooding weren't addressed sooner and why action wasn't taken when a trigger hit April 28. "It did seem some of these concerns were brought up before Plan 2014 by some people in this room." she said.
"Why wasn't water released until May?" pressed Helming. "I want you to know the devastation it caused."
Tony David, with the lake-level board, said, "At the time the threshold was reached, there was no capacity downstream to offload the discharge." He talked about the devastation then taking place in Quebec, where thousands of people were displaced and homes destroyed.
"We were trying to make the best of a difficult situation," David said.
In his testimony, David acknowledged the physical and emotional toll on everyone affected by the flooding deemed "the most extreme since modern record-keeping." And, he said, with weather and climate factors there's a 50/50 chance conditions could mimic this year in 2018.
"It's a balancing act, not just over years but over decades," added the board's Keith Koralewski.
Plan 2014 aims to balance a slew of interests. Those include: improving fish and wildlife habitat through wetland restoration; maintaining lake level for recreational boating and commercial navigation; protecting public drinking water and wastewater operations; and boosting hydropower production. The plan required approvals from the governments of Canada and the United States. Water levels on Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River are primarily determined by rain, snow, wind and other natural factors, according to the plan. The dam provides some, but not all, control of water levels and flows.
David said if the same scenario that precipitated the 2017 flooding played out again, "the decision the board made would have to be the same."
Frank Sciremammano, a lake-level board member who said he was speaking as a citizen independent of the board, blasted Plan 2014. He said the plan favors Canadian interests.
"Plan 2014 did not cause the flooding but it didn't protect against it either," said Sciremammano, an engineer from Brighton. "The plan is biased toward downstream areas ... so the damage was shifted" to the southern shore of Lake Ontario, he said.
David and Koralewski and members of IJC said water regulations will not eliminate flooding.
"No plan could have prevented it," said Lana Pollack, U.S. chair of the IJC.
Discussion on what could be done centered on state and local governments working together. There was also discussion about ensuring structures along the shore are built to withstand extreme weather events.
State Sen. Rich Funke, R-Fairport, a panelist, said much could be done. "Seek some flexibility in the plan," he said. He talked about improving communication between the lake-level board and IJC and the public in the face of extreme conditions that call for action and cooperation.
Pollack said the attendance by 10 state lawmakers at the public hearing is a good sign. "This shows you care," she said. Referring to extreme weather events: "If you know it's coming, it's all our responsibility," she said.
 

scotto

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“Plan 2014 did not cause the flooding but it didn’t protect against it either,” said Sciremammano, an engineer from Brighton. “The plan is biased toward downstream areas ... so the damage was shifted” to the southern shore of Lake Ontario, he said.
David and Koralewski and members of IJC said water regulations will not eliminate flooding.
“No plan could have prevented it,” said Lana Pollack, U.S. chair of the IJC.
Good info, once Donald hears about this, there will be no more Plan.
 

Opie

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Came across another article, this one from the University of Michigan dated November 13, 2017. Looks like the Army Corps of Engineers have a forecast for the great lakes to be high for the first 6 months next year. City of Hamilton hope you are ready for some more damage next spring, if the forecast is somewhat close, the beach strip and waterfront trail will see more erosion again.

http://msue.anr.msu.edu/news/are_great_lakes_water_levels_headed_up_in_2018_msg17_breederland17

Are Great Lakes water levels headed up in 2018?
November forecast suggests higher levels heading into next year.
Posted on November 13, 2017 by Mark Breederland, MIchigan State University Extension, Michigan Sea Grant



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U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Fall of 2017 was a very wet season in the Great Lakes region. According to the US Army Corps of Engineers, basin-wide precipitation was well above normal for all of the Great Lakes during October 2017. In fact, these estimates put the monthly precipitation at 118 percent of average for Lake Superior, 161 percent of average for Lakes Michigan/Huron, 107 percent of average for Lake Erie, and 170 percent of average for Lake Ontario. Accordingly, while the lakes generally continue seasonal decline into winter, the rate of this decline has been much more gradual.
What impact has this high precipitation had in various lakes? In late October all the Great Lakes rose slightly from the typical pattern (that is lower at the end of the month than at the beginning). Currently in mid-November, Lake Superior is hovering around its October average when it typically is a bit lower in November. Lake Michigan and Huron showed over an inch bump up around Oct. 24, 2017 - over 780 billion gallons of water across this 45,300 square mile surface area of the earth. Net basin supply estimates (the net result of precipitation falling on the lake, runoff from precipitation falling on the land which flows to the lake, and evaporation from the lake [negative net basin supply denotes evaporation exceeded runoff and precipitation]) and the outflow from the upstream lake were all above average during October.
Evaporation a factor
We know evaporation is a huge factor in lake level prediction and yet it is extremely hard to measure. The NOAA Great Lakes Research Lab and The Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research hosted a recent webinar, "Ten Years of the Great Lakes Evaporation Network: Progress Made and Opportunities for the Future" by Dr. Christopher Spence, research hydrologist from Environment and Climate Change Canada. The work done over the past decade is helpful to try to understand big and smaller years of evaporation and yet recognizes significant complexity in locating instruments on the Great Lakes. Some research-based information confirms that typically, the largest evaporation over the lakes occurs in November and December, when the lakes are still warm and the cold arctic air blasts come over the lakes.
The main coordinated model for Great Lakes water levels used by the US Army Corps of Engineers doesn't project out beyond 6 months. However, a newer product The Great Lakes Water Level Outlook, details that the high water levels of this year were accompanied by a strong seasonal rise due to wet spring conditions and high net basin supplies to the lakes. It also compares to some years when there were periods of positive net basin supply during the years 1972-1973, 1985-1986, and 1996-1997 - thr ee scenarios representing periods of high water levels and high net basin supply throughout the year across the Great Lakes basin.
Snowpack key
Considering these scenarios, it is quite possible 2018 may be a high water year in several of the Great Lakes. One thing to watch for over the winter is the amount of system snowpack over the Lake Superior basin. Lake-effect snows are considered net-system losses (they come back long-term) but system snow pack is usually measured in March by NOAA's National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center. NOAA is trying to determine how much liquid water is "locked up" in the frozen snowpack, technically called snow-water equivalent. Fixed wing aircraft flying with remote sensing gamma radiation sensors at about 500 feet above the ground around the Lake Superior basin can give good estimates of snowpack. Naturally occurring gamma radiation is released from the soil under snowcover and can indicate snowdepth.
Higher lake levels impacts shoreline erosion; fall is typically the time of year for sustained storms. In fact, a Lake Superior buoy north of Marquette, Mich., measured a 28.8 foot wave at Granite Island on Oct. 24, 2017 - the highest wave ever recorded by modern buoy records (10-30 years). Significant erosion has been reported near Whitefish Point. Yet the rise and fall of the Great Lakes is still normal and key for nearshore wetland ecological health and nearshore habitat.
Here's an overall lake level synopsis - higher levels but not all time highs. Lake Superior is 13" above its long-term average for October and 7" higher than 2016. Lake Michigan/Huron is 19" above its long term average for October and 9" above 2016. Let's keep an eye on system snow in 2017-2018 and see what evaporative losses show - but it appears we might well be in for a higher season in 2018.
Please contact Extension educator Mark Breederland, breederl@msu.edu, for more information on living with the ever-changing dynamic coastlines of the Great Lakes.
View pdf of Lake Superior Monthly Mean Water Levels
View pdf of Lake Michigan/Huron Monthly Mean Water Levels
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Opie

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Mar 1, 2017
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Good morning

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.6 M

http://www.thesuburban.com/news/lake...1cab470c0.html

Friday November 24th average level was at 74.89 M

Reading date / Lake Average
July 22 - 75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18 - 75.47
Sept 1 – 75.28
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 29 – 74.99
Oct 10 – 74.95
Oct 27 – 74.83
Nov 9 – 74.929


Next read date is Dec 8th.

Reading and still trying to locate a better graph to post of the forecast into 2018 for the lake level. Meantime, below is a link to the Govt of Canada – Fisheries and Oceans dept. It shows they expect a higher lake level for the beginning of next year versus this past year’s levels. That’s not good news since the data cannot predict what influence we will get from the spring rains in April.

Scott, not sure if you are able to copy and paste the Lake Ontario graph portion onto the thread to make it easier for those to find and read

http://www.waterlevels.gc.ca/C&A/bulletin-eng.html

Sad to think on how much of the beach strip will be eroded away next spring

(Click on the image to open, click again to enlarge to full size)
 

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scotto

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Feb 15, 2004
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Looking at the graph, it seems to project two directions? And yes who knows what rain fall we will get come spring, but the experts are predicting a tough winter. I don't know if that means lots of snow or just cold temperatures.
(Hope that was the graph you were wanting)
 

Opie

Registered User
Staff member
Mar 1, 2017
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The Beach Strip
Thanks Scott,

That is the correct graph, It's not the best graph - the Army Corp of Engineers has a better one that I will track down. Anyways to figure out what the current graph tells us, Red dotted line is the possible high Lake level we could expect and the blue dotted line is the low lake level we could expect. The faint grey solid line is the average lake level and the solid black line is the past year's level. The IJC has yet to release any news regarding the high lake level for next spring. The only ones that are sounding the alarm has been from the Army Corps earlier this month and with the information they provided, they confirmed the lakes in the great lake basin are already higher than normal which means this excess water still needs to feed into the Lake Ontario sometime next year. That's on top of any rainfall we could expect next year and the tough winter coming up we need to get through. All in all, next spring looks like it will be a repeat of this year's high lake level, time to dust off the sump pumps and hope they are wrong, we do not want to follow the red dotted line.

I found a small glimmer of hope in the article below. Come next March Lake Ontario could be 11 inches lower than it was this year, or not. December 8th, the Army Corps will have another news release and may have to adjust their numbers again, since the lake levels are currently higher than they expected. You will need to click onto the link to view the graphs.


http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/11/great_lakes_water_levels_still.html

We're in a phase where the Great Lakes water levels continue to trend higher each year. Next spring will be no different, the latest forecast shows. With the 2018 spring thaw, we should see the lakes starting their seasonal rise at a higher level than they did in 2017.
The trend of higher each year started with some Great Lakes bottoming at record low levels in 2013. For the last four years each Great Lake has generally been higher than the previous year.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers official forecast for the next six months calls for Lake Superior and Lakes Michigan-Huron to be significantly higher in March 2018 compared to March 2017.
Here's the forecast for Lake Superior.
Past and future lake levels for Lake Superior.
I will admit there are a lot of lines and info on these graphs. The key point I want you to see is the lake level at the two black arrows. March 2018 water level forecast for Lake Superior is expected to be four inches higher than March 2017.
This means Lake Superior's multi-year rise in lake level is expected to continue.
Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are expected to gain even more water on last spring.
Past and future lake levels expected for Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.
Lake Michigan and Lake Huron act as one lake due to their connection at the Straits of Mackinac. Lakes Michigan and Huron are expected to be nine inches higher in March 2018 compared to March 2017. That would be a significantly higher start to the seasonal lake level rise, which usually starts in March or April.
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario may be breaking their multi-year rise, at least temporarily. It will be hard for Lake Superior, Lake Michigan and Lake Huron to be adding water and Lake Erie and Lake Ontario losing water.
Past and future levels of Lake Erie.
Lake Erie is expected to come out of winter at about the same level as March 2017.
Lake Ontario was at devastating record high levels this past spring. The good news is Lake Ontario is expected to start the seasonal rise 11 inches lower than March 2017.
Keith Kompoltowicz from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says a new forecast will be issued in December. He states that current lake levels are already tracking higher than the forecast levels issued just one month ago. Kompoltowicz says the December update may have to take forecast water levels even higher.
Kompoltowicz says he is already seeing evidence of increased erosion of Great Lakes shorelines. He also wants to remind us Lake Superior is only four inches lower than the record high in 1985.
The potential for damage along the Great Lakes shorelines is present. Damage will depend on wind direction and strength of the wind as strong storms pass over the Great Lakes.
The current forecast may already be outdated. November's precipitation over the Great Lakes basin has been above average and more than was factored into the current lake level forecast.
Watch for a new lake level forecast in December that could mean even smaller beaches come next summer.
 

scotto

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Feb 15, 2004
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Six-Month Forecast Bulletins

From the Detroit District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers that Opie tracked down

Water levels for the previous year and the current year to date are shown as a solid line on the hydrographs. A projection for the next six months is given as a dashed line. This projection is based on the present condition of the lake basin and anticipated future weather. The shaded area shows a range of possible levels over the next six months dependent upon weather variations. Current and projected levels (solid and dashed lines) can be compared with the 1918-2015 average levels (dotted line) and extreme levels (shown as bars with their year of occurrence). The legend below further identifies the information on the hydrographs.

The levels on the hydrographs are shown in both feet and meters above (+) or below (-) Chart Datum. Chart Datum, also known as Low Water Datum, is a reference plane on each lake to which water depth and Federal navigation improvement depths on navigation charts are referred.

All elevations and plots shown in this bulletin are referenced to International Great Lakes Datum 1985 (IGLD 1985). IGLD 1985 has its zero base at Rimouski, Quebec near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River (approximate sea level).
 

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