Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

scotto

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#81
http://www.syracuse.com/opinion/ind...y_for_lake_ontario_flooding_your_letters.html

I came across this article from yesterday, have a read and take a look at the comment section. The reaction to the flood damage by some in the USA is night and day to what is said here on the Canadian side. As always two sides to every story but I hope the City of Hamilton takes into consideration the comments being made, before they spend one dollar more on the repairs to our flood damage. We have another spring to get thru and has the potential to be a repeat of this years flooding.
From the article;
"Unprecedented precipitation caused Lake Ontario to flood: it had nothing to do with international regulation of lake levels, i.e. Plan 2014. Neither would the 1958 plans have protected the shoreline in this case."

I had a couple friends drive their boat over to Fifty Point from the Beach on the weekend and they couldn't believe the vast damage to the shoreline along the way.
On another note, I see the water level has finally lowered to the second wrung on the ladders in canal, a small change, but a change for the better.
 

Opie

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#82
What caused the ongoing flooding on Lake Ontario,
here is an article I found this morning, its a rehash of what has been reported to us and a deeper look into why. When councillor Chad Collins allowed me the privilege to share my concerns with the powers that be, they did mention the drought of up state New York to me. If it hadn't been for that then we would have seen a higher Lake level last summer and fall. This was because of a large amount of water coming out of Lake Erie compensating for the drought. The article touches on this fact and also paints a picture of no one sounding the alarm of what was to come until it was too late. Based on what has been read in this article, if the other great lakes are still way above normal today then the chances for a repeat of this years spring flooding is high next year.

https://eos.org/articles/what-caused-the-ongoing-flooding-on-lake-ontario
 

scotto

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#83
What caused the ongoing flooding on Lake Ontario,
here is an article I found this morning, its a rehash of what has been reported to us and a deeper look into why. When councillor Chad Collins allowed me the privilege to share my concerns with the powers that be, they did mention the drought of up state New York to me. If it hadn't been for that then we would have seen a higher Lake level last summer and fall. This was because of a large amount of water coming out of Lake Erie compensating for the drought. The article touches on this fact and also paints a picture of no one sounding the alarm of what was to come until it was too late. Based on what has been read in this article, if the other great lakes are still way above normal today then the chances for a repeat of this years spring flooding is high next year.

https://eos.org/articles/what-caused-the-ongoing-flooding-on-lake-ontario

From the article;

“We went from record lows over a 100-year [period] to a record high in just 5 years,” Gronewold said. In other words, extremes may become more common. How then can we make informed decisions to manage the lakeshore where thousands of people live and work?

Gronewold hopes that in the future, policy makers and community managers will take that into account when deciding where to build roads, buildings, and other infrastructure and when communicating hazards and risks to those living near the shore.

And they’ll need to, Rood said. “We are going to continue to see these episodes of large record-high precipitation,” he noted. “The world is probably going to be a little bit less steady going forward.”

_______________________________________________________________


Very good find, but I don't see where they anticipate more flooding next year, it seems they have no idea what is going to happen?
 

Opie

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#84
Very good find, but I don't see where they anticipate more flooding next year, it seems they have no idea what is going to happen?

Hi Scott,

It is I who anticipates a higher than normal risk for flooding.

The article and even the powers that be will not comment on next year's possibility to flood again, in my opinion the data they had for the last 3 years showed the other great lakes were holding more water then releasing. Eventually that wave of water has to flow downstream towards Lake Ontario which started to arrive last summer/fall. That is when someone should have started to scratch their head and think what if we get a wet spring next year, what if ?? This wave will still be flowing till the end of December hence the dams being left open till then ( did you catch the part that on Aug 8th they will lessen the output from Lake Ontario ). By the end of this year there will still be a large amount of water in the lakes still heading our way, based on current levels.

When we use the lake level data from this Friday we can see where the trend is going but the last measurement still put it on the high side per the IJC's chart. If this trend continues, even with the dams being open, Lake Ontario will enter 2018 at a high water level. By that point the ship traffic is over on the great lakes and leaves a small window for the IJC to continue the outflow ( I will need to find the article where the IJC states they however cannot afford to release too much during this period in fear of creating ice jams further down the St Lawrence). Then March 2018 arrives and the Lake level is brought back up again by this point, either the wave has passed-we hope or more is still coming. Also Plan 2014 will be in effect and we will start spring again with a higher lake level. The part that no can predict, will we either have a dry spring or wet one.
 

Opie

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#85
Morning, the lake data shows the average level on Friday was at 75.6 M. down from the last reading on July 22nd @ 75.71 M. The lake is very slowly coming down but it is still approx. 10 cm higher then expected per the IJC chart. They predicted the level to be no higher then 75.5 M by this date. You can view the chart below on the related link.

http://www.thesuburban.com/news/lak...cle_c2581611-0b3d-5800-a797-da21cab470c0.html

The next reading date is August 18 and then we will see if the lake is still trending on the extreme high side
 

scotto

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#86
Morning, the lake data shows the average level on Friday was at 75.6 M. down from the last reading on July 22nd @ 75.71 M. The lake is very slowly coming down but it is still approx. 10 cm higher then expected per the IJC chart.
Seven days after I checked level in the canal using the ladders as a gauge, I see that the level has dropped another three inches. Considering all the rain that we have been getting, I see that as a positive.
 

Opie

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#87
Yes, the drop is a very good positive. Even the powers that be seem to agree that the lake level is going down, in fact they state rapidly. Here is thier news release and it would seem they will decrease the outflow from the dams around Aug 8.

http://ijc.org/en_/islrbc/news?news_id=619

Even the Army Corp of Engineers is stating we will se a further drop of 10 inches/ 25 cm by labour day weekend.

http://www.niagara-gazette.com/news...cle_e28808e0-d3f5-515a-a012-c0310f1b921b.html

Lets hope they are right.


I found a couple of small articles this morning, regarding the up coming reduction in outflow from the dams- which actually started today at 12:01 this morning

http://wskgnews.org/post/ijc-lowers-outflows-lake-ontario-angering-some-property-owners#stream/0

https://www.northcountrypublicradio...-keep-st-lawrence-river-from-falling-too-fast
 
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Opie

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#88
Spending time on the beach and water this weekend. We noticed that the lake level has gone down further since the past weekend. Just maybe they will get the lake down to the level to where they want it by the Labour day weekend.

Came across a few news articles today that are of some interest.

Here is short blurb confirming the drop
http://www.twcnews.com/nys/rocheste...pervisor--lake-ontario-water-levels-down.html

Gov Cuomo from New York State, sound off again against the IJC
http://www.twcnews.com/nys/rocheste...itical-ijc-reducing-lake-ontario-outflow.html

IJC defends decision to reduce flow
http://wskgnews.org/post/ijc-defends-decision-lower-outflows-lake-ontario#stream/0

This article could suggest that the IJC is holding back the water in Lakes Michigan and Huron as Lake Ontario drops, finding balance?
http://www.hollandsentinel.com/news...at-lakes-effects-felt-at-holland-area-beaches

Finally glad to see that the "Sandboni" has made it down to our end of the beach, thank you City of Hamilton.
 

scotto

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#89
Spending time on the beach and water this weekend. We noticed that the lake level has gone down further since the past weekend. Just maybe they will get the lake down to the level to where they want it by the Labour day weekend.

Finally glad to see that the “Sandboni” has made it down to our end of the beach, thank you City of Hamilton.

I see the debris washed up onto the beach is a lot worse this year, likely because the high water undermined more shoreline taking more of the plant life and trees with it. Now the lake is giving it back.
 

Opie

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#90
I see the debris washed up onto the beach is a lot worse this year, likely because the high water undermined more shoreline taking more of the plant life and trees with it. Now the lake is giving it back.
Yes some of the items we have seen on the beach have been impressive and if you are into collecting drift wood, there been some great pieces. I love the entrepreneurial spirit of one local beach strip resident, they had collected various pieces of drift wood and made them into art pieces for sale.

Todays afternoon storm is sure to stir up things again and send them a drift. Be interesting to see what we find by Friday night once the front passes by. Strong wind warning with 1 1/2 M high waves by Friday.
 

Opie

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#91
I was going to use the lake level data today so we could compare it to where the IJC predicted it to be but I will hold off a day or two due to the expected wave action today. On Monday I will report the average after I see there was a 24 hour calm period.

Mean time came across this news article, two thirds down the IJC rep is stating that the out flow from Lake Ontario will be reduce soon.

http://www.standard-freeholder.com/...-with-the-record-high-st-lawrence-river-flows


With the news now that the outflow will be reduced soon, it will not make the people along the south shores of lake Ontario happy

http://www.thedailynewsonline.com/bdn01/homeowners-still-battling-lake-ontario-20170818
 

scotto

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#92
I was going to use the lake level data today so we could compare it to where the IJC predicted it to be but I will hold off a day or two due to the expected wave action today. On Monday I will report the average after I see there was a 24 hour calm period.

Mean time came across this news article, two thirds down the IJC rep is stating that the out flow from Lake Ontario will be reduce soon.

http://www.standard-freeholder.com/...-with-the-record-high-st-lawrence-river-flows
Good article and worth following;


The amount of water rushing through the dams along the St. Lawrence River have been at record levels since May due to the heavy rains that have persisted through the spring and summer. At the moment there are just under 10 million litres of water flowing through local dams every second, which is 36 per cent higher than what is typical for August over the past century.

The increased outflow has caused the velocity of the river to increase as well. In Lake St. Francis east of Cornwall, for instance, the velocity of the current has increased and is 1.4 times faster than normal. Those changes are having a noticeable impact on the river, much to the chagrin of local fisherman and boaters.

“Local fishermen were unable to catch fish, let alone say anchor. Even today the yellow perch fishing is suffering greatly,” resident Lionel Poirier told the Standard-Freeholder.

The amount of water allowed through dams is regulated by the International Joint Commission (IJC), and guided by the aptly named “Regulation Plan 2014.” But according to Rob Caldwell, a Canadian regulation representative of the International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board, that plan has been effectively suspended after it was decided the highest priority was to try and protect property from flooding.


_________________________________________

I don't recall if we added this one or not;
http://www.standard-freeholder.com/...at-the-heart-of-southern-ontario-water-levels
 

Opie

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#93
Friday's anticipated high waves and rough waters didn't happen. So we can use the data from Friday, it showed the lake to be at approx 75.47 M. A drop of approx 13 cm from the previous reading. The lake is still trending on the high side and higher then where the IJC expected the lake to be at this time of the month. You can view the chart in the link below to compare.

http://www.thesuburban.com/news/lak...cle_c2581611-0b3d-5800-a797-da21cab470c0.html

Reading date/Lake Average
July 22 -75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18- 75.47
 

scotto

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#94
Friday’s anticipated high waves and rough waters didn’t happen. So we can use the data from Friday, it showed the lake to be at approx 75.47 M. A drop of approx 13 cm from the previous reading. The lake is still trending on the high side and higher then where the IJC expected the lake to be at this time of the month.
We seem to have gotten the rough water on mostly Thursday instead, so it did happen. I notice today that the rail on the north pier is becoming visible, if we can get it below the rail, most of the pumping will be over.
I would add a picture, but Photobucket is getting rid of site links, I will have to find another way to post pictures.


Added;
As of this week, both Beach Rescue vessels now fit under the Bridge, more good news.
 

Opie

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#95
We seem to have gotten the rough water on mostly Thursday instead, so it did happen. I notice today that the rail on the north pier is becoming visible, if we can get it below the rail, most of the pumping will be over.
I would add a picture, but Photobucket is getting rid of site links, I will have to find another way to post pictures.


Added;
As of this week, both Beach Rescue vessels now fit under the Bridge, more good news.

It's good to see the Waterfront Trail open yesterday and its good to read Rescue can now get under the bridge.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/flooded-waterfront-trail-opening-today-1.4255428

Just wondering if the City can approach the Feds for some financial relief on the damage done and still to be determined?
There is an advantage to being on the North eastern side of this lake, erosion and waves hit us less
As for our neighbours on the other side of the this lake, looks like they will be getting hit later today

http://www.localsyr.com/news/lakeshore-flood-warning-along-lake-ontario/795464994

As for the IJC and the current "2014 plan", may look different in the near future. Depending on how the soon to be new seats are filled

http://www.niagara-gazette.com/news...cle_62eb6fbf-f08a-5a2d-865d-d27b4890d68d.html
 

Opie

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#96
It is great to see the lake level going down quickly.
Friday Sept 1st average level was at 75.28M, almost a 20 cm drop from the previous reading

Reading date / Lake Average
July 22 - 75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18- 75.47
 

scotto

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#97
It is great to see the lake level going down quickly.
Friday Sept 1st average level was at 75.28M, almost a 20 cm drop from the previous reading

Reading date / Lake Average
July 22 - 75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18- 75.47
My official level meter has the canal level now near the upper section the north wall rail, it is going down. Hopefully all the rainfall from incoming hurricanes from the south stay far east, there are now three.
 

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Opie

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#98
Speaking of hurricanes, here is a neat link

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=23.2;-64.5;4&l=wind-900hpa

have a go at it, you can move the map around, change the cursor to show temp, wind speed, zoom in and out, etc. Under the settings tab you can switch back and forth from metric to imperial measurements and at the bottom of the page you can change the date and time. The last part is based on assumption by the creator and where they pull their weather model from for the information, so it's not gospel. Already since yesterday, the link has changed Irma's approach to the great lakes and wind direction for the middle of next week-still way too early to tell.

Looking at the National Hurricane Center and various news outlets, Irma is agreed to be south of the Bahamas by Saturday but after that its looks like it's any ones guess where it will go. But I agree with you Scott, let's hope it travels on a path east of us, way east. The lake level may have gone down some but is still way too high, any storm now with easterly strong winds will cause serious damage to the beach area.

Adding another link if you are interested to see what impact Irma's storm surge can cover. I have it set at 10 feet, you can adjust this number up or down. News feeds state the surge that will hit Florida can be as low as 5 feet up to and over 20 feet, that does not include any wave heights. Same as the link above you can zoom in and out and move the map around.

http://heywhatsthat.com/sealevel.html
 
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Opie

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#99
The trend continues as the lake level drops further. It is still on the high side but each week we gain more of the beach back

Friday Sept 15th average level was at 75.12M

Reading date / Lake Average
July 22 - 75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18 - 75.47
Sept 1 - 75.28

Next read date is Sept 29th.

Found some readings on line concerning the lake levels and its various impact

http://www.thewhig.com/2017/09/12/high-water-sinks-revenue

https://nowtoronto.com/news/after-the-flood-toronto-island-preservation-climate-change/

http://www.lockportjournal.com/news...cle_04dbe223-7437-5c9d-83dd-f31d1d76ff35.html

and the latest news release from the International board who regulate the lake level

http://ijc.org/en_/islrbc/news?news_id=623&myID=1
 

Opie

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Good morning

The past weeks lack of rain has gone a long way to help get the lake down, the lake is almost where they had predicted it to be for this date.

http://www.thesuburban.com/news/lak...cle_c2581611-0b3d-5800-a797-da21cab470c0.html

Friday Sept 29th average level was at 74.99M

Reading date / Lake Average
July 22 - 75.71 M
Aug 4 - 75.6
Aug 18 - 75.47
Sept 1 - 75.28
Sept 15 - 75.12

Next read date is Oct 13th.

Little news relating to the lake levels now that it's come down some. South of the border they will be looking for answers as to why this happened. I do not believe they will get any new answers just hope the IJC keeps releasing as much water as possible. We still have the other great lakes record water levles to deal with by next spring.

http://www.wwnytv.com/story/36462025/what-caused-this-years-flooding-lawmakers-want-to-find-out
 
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