Interesting article popped up this morning, it presents both sides of the argument about the current lake level plan. I do sympathize with those living on the south shore of Lake Ontario, they will take a beating this winter. Now knowing the lake level will be kept elevated over winter unlike in past years, I foresee ice damage to the shoreline come late winter when the ice packs start to push onto land during high winds/storms.
Also noted that my thoughts that the current plan could be switched out were wrong for now. Plan 2014 will be around in its current state for another year and we can expect to experience spring flooding again but to what extent will depend on the precipitation that falls.
Of the IJC's 4 members ( 2 additional spots are currently vacant)- Mr Frank Sciremammano is the most vocal against it because it ties up the IJC's hand, if they want to be preventive when flooding is expected to occur.
The article does not mention that the IJC could not discharge as much water as it could early on in the flooding. This was due to Montreal and other areas downstream from the dam that have allowed human habitation to be built on a natural flood plain - these area's were experience flooding already.
The article is below or click on the link to view the various pictures and graphs, happy reading
http://www.democratandchronicle.com...e-ontario-flooding-lake-level-plan/900645001/
Achilles heel begins to surface on Lake Ontario
That one expert calls the "Achilles' heel" of the controversial plan for regulating Lake Ontario water levels is revealing itself for the first time this fall.
The lake is high - at a near-record high level for this time of year - because the new regulatory system, Plan 2014, dictates that it be that way.
The water is likely to stay higher than people are accustomed to right through the end of the year, and perhaps in the spring as well.
The persistence of higher water is "part of the damage of Plan 2014," said Frank Sciremammano, a Brighton engineer who has been involved in lake-level matters for decades. "The water stays higher for a longer period of time, and the window for a bad storm to hit is longer."
Valerie Bates has lived on Lake Ontario for over 50 years and has noticed the receding shoreline. (November 2017) Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Steve Orr
As of a few days ago, the water was a full 12 inches above the long-term norm for this time of year. Since lake-level regulation began nearly 60 years ago, the lake has been this high in late November only a handful of times.
The inflow from Lake Erie, whose level is 1 ½ feet above normal, is also likely to continue to be above-average well into 2018.
More: High winds, high water, lots of hot air: Facts and fiction about Lake Ontario's Plan 2014
"There's a lot of question marks going through the winter and early spring," Sciremammano said. "But in general, we're more likely to be high than low."
This does raise the risk of more shoreline flooding and erosion next spring, officials at the International Joint Commission say - but only very slightly. Their studies have found that no set of lake-level rules can hold back the water during times of extreme precipitation and inflow such as experienced this year.
A study is underway now to look at how the plan worked given this year's conditions. Its conclusions are due in early 2018, although any recommended modifications would be likely subtle.
But the situation with high autumn water now alarms and infuriates some shoreline residents who fear, with or without justification, that the regulators at the International Joint Commission are setting them up for another round of devastation.
This year's flooding damaged thousands of properties and businesses and has a price tag that will likely top $100 million. It left shoreline denizens frustrated, angry and anxious about a possible recurrence.
More: Flooding threatens family coastal camps on east shore
"All of the upper Great Lakes are well above average and the winter forecast is for a warmer and wetter winter, depending on which forecaster you go with," said Phil Miglioratti, who lives in a lakefront home in Webster. "My desire would be to see us take some action now."
But that's not going to happen. The plan calls for the lake to be lowered just 3 inches more by year's end.
More: High winds, high water, lots of hot air: Facts and fiction about Lake Ontario's Plan 2014
These homes on Lake Road in Webster have only a small stretch of land it sits on between Irondequoit Bay and Lake Ontario.
Greater variations and coastal Impacts
Plan 2014, so-named for the year it was developed, was designed to boost the lake's ecosystem by allowing a more natural cyclical fluctuation of Lake Ontario's waters.
It replaced Plan 1958DD, a prior iteration born in the 1950s in an effort to balance out the impacts on the lake's shoreline stakeholders with those on dam operators, boaters, shippers along the St. Lawrence River and flood-prone residents near Montreal. Effects on the environment were never considered then, to what environmentalists now say was devastating effect.
Plan 2014 is meant to add protections for disappearing wetlands and marshes to the mix by introducing this greater variability in water levels. It was considered a monumental win for environmentalists, who say it represented the second-largest wetlands restoration project ever undertaken in North America.
The higher water in the fall, a staple of the new plan, mimics the lake's natural autumnal level, according to Bill Werick, a technical advisor to the IJC.
"You get higher fall levels, which gets you higher spring levels, which most of the time is a good thing," he said..
This greater variation in levels was intended to help restore wetlands and various species - northern pike, black terns, spiny softshell turtles - that live in and around them. Higher water in the fall and winter, for example, would help protect muskrat burrows from predators.
Several homes on Edgemere Drive in Greece are repairing their breakwall.
(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE, @tyee23/staff photographer)
TO BE CONINUED ON THE NEXT PAGE
Also noted that my thoughts that the current plan could be switched out were wrong for now. Plan 2014 will be around in its current state for another year and we can expect to experience spring flooding again but to what extent will depend on the precipitation that falls.
Of the IJC's 4 members ( 2 additional spots are currently vacant)- Mr Frank Sciremammano is the most vocal against it because it ties up the IJC's hand, if they want to be preventive when flooding is expected to occur.
The article does not mention that the IJC could not discharge as much water as it could early on in the flooding. This was due to Montreal and other areas downstream from the dam that have allowed human habitation to be built on a natural flood plain - these area's were experience flooding already.
The article is below or click on the link to view the various pictures and graphs, happy reading
http://www.democratandchronicle.com...e-ontario-flooding-lake-level-plan/900645001/
Achilles heel begins to surface on Lake Ontario
That one expert calls the "Achilles' heel" of the controversial plan for regulating Lake Ontario water levels is revealing itself for the first time this fall.
The lake is high - at a near-record high level for this time of year - because the new regulatory system, Plan 2014, dictates that it be that way.
The water is likely to stay higher than people are accustomed to right through the end of the year, and perhaps in the spring as well.
The persistence of higher water is "part of the damage of Plan 2014," said Frank Sciremammano, a Brighton engineer who has been involved in lake-level matters for decades. "The water stays higher for a longer period of time, and the window for a bad storm to hit is longer."
Valerie Bates has lived on Lake Ontario for over 50 years and has noticed the receding shoreline. (November 2017) Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Steve Orr
As of a few days ago, the water was a full 12 inches above the long-term norm for this time of year. Since lake-level regulation began nearly 60 years ago, the lake has been this high in late November only a handful of times.
The inflow from Lake Erie, whose level is 1 ½ feet above normal, is also likely to continue to be above-average well into 2018.
More: High winds, high water, lots of hot air: Facts and fiction about Lake Ontario's Plan 2014
"There's a lot of question marks going through the winter and early spring," Sciremammano said. "But in general, we're more likely to be high than low."
This does raise the risk of more shoreline flooding and erosion next spring, officials at the International Joint Commission say - but only very slightly. Their studies have found that no set of lake-level rules can hold back the water during times of extreme precipitation and inflow such as experienced this year.
A study is underway now to look at how the plan worked given this year's conditions. Its conclusions are due in early 2018, although any recommended modifications would be likely subtle.
But the situation with high autumn water now alarms and infuriates some shoreline residents who fear, with or without justification, that the regulators at the International Joint Commission are setting them up for another round of devastation.
This year's flooding damaged thousands of properties and businesses and has a price tag that will likely top $100 million. It left shoreline denizens frustrated, angry and anxious about a possible recurrence.
More: Flooding threatens family coastal camps on east shore
"All of the upper Great Lakes are well above average and the winter forecast is for a warmer and wetter winter, depending on which forecaster you go with," said Phil Miglioratti, who lives in a lakefront home in Webster. "My desire would be to see us take some action now."
But that's not going to happen. The plan calls for the lake to be lowered just 3 inches more by year's end.
More: High winds, high water, lots of hot air: Facts and fiction about Lake Ontario's Plan 2014
These homes on Lake Road in Webster have only a small stretch of land it sits on between Irondequoit Bay and Lake Ontario.
Greater variations and coastal Impacts
Plan 2014, so-named for the year it was developed, was designed to boost the lake's ecosystem by allowing a more natural cyclical fluctuation of Lake Ontario's waters.
It replaced Plan 1958DD, a prior iteration born in the 1950s in an effort to balance out the impacts on the lake's shoreline stakeholders with those on dam operators, boaters, shippers along the St. Lawrence River and flood-prone residents near Montreal. Effects on the environment were never considered then, to what environmentalists now say was devastating effect.
Plan 2014 is meant to add protections for disappearing wetlands and marshes to the mix by introducing this greater variability in water levels. It was considered a monumental win for environmentalists, who say it represented the second-largest wetlands restoration project ever undertaken in North America.
The higher water in the fall, a staple of the new plan, mimics the lake's natural autumnal level, according to Bill Werick, a technical advisor to the IJC.
"You get higher fall levels, which gets you higher spring levels, which most of the time is a good thing," he said..
This greater variation in levels was intended to help restore wetlands and various species - northern pike, black terns, spiny softshell turtles - that live in and around them. Higher water in the fall and winter, for example, would help protect muskrat burrows from predators.
Several homes on Edgemere Drive in Greece are repairing their breakwall.
(Photo: TINA MACINTYRE-YEE, @tyee23/staff photographer)
TO BE CONINUED ON THE NEXT PAGE