Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

scotto

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Trying my first post with the new Fourm.

According to my canal water level, the lake has gone up just over 12 inches since April 7th which was the last picture I posted.
From today;



But check the difference from last year's level, posted May 10, 2017;
 
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Opie

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Good morning,

Friday May 18th, the average level is at 75.35 M

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 75 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, May lake level average was 75.11 M
The average lake level for May in 2017 was 75.80 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 48 F

Next reading date is Friday June 1st.

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 6 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 8 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 9 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 1 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 4 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

 
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scotto

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Hamilton under flood watch due to high winds
Wave heights in Lake Ontario were expected to reach 1.1 metres
The Hamilton Spectator
May 19, 2018

The city is under a flood watch this long weekend as high winds could cause storm surge and wavy waters on Lake Ontario.
The Hamilton Conservation Authority warned of strong, shore-bound winds Friday into Saturday that could cause erosion and localized flooding along the shoreline.
Hamilton was expected to see wind gusts between 40 and 60 kilometres an hour Friday, said Environment Canada meterologist Gerald Cheng.

Those gusts should have dropped to between 20 and 40 kilometres an hour overnight into Saturday, he added.
As a result, wave heights were expected to reach 1.1 metres, the conservation authority warned.
The weather forecast showed "unsettled" conditions for Saturday, with a few showers beginning early in the morning and the possibility of thunderstorms in the afternoon, Cheng said.
Whole article;
https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8619255-hamilton-under-flood-watch-due-to-high-winds/
 

Opie

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Courtesy of the Army Corps of Engineers

http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/Water-Level-Forecast/Weekly-Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/

The Great Lakes water levels are all above their long-term average May levels. Lake Superior is 2 inches lower than it was at this time last year, while lakes Michigan-Huron, St.Clair, and Erie are 5, 6, and 3 inches respectively, above last year’s levels and Lake Ontario is 23 inches below its level from a year ago. Lake Erie is 3 inches below its highest monthly average for May while Lake Ontario is 20 inches below its record monthly high water level for May (note that daily levels can vary substantially during the month). Over the next 30 days, Lake Superior, and Lake Michigan-Huron are projected to rise 3 inches each, Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie are forecasted to drop 1 inch, and Lake Ontario is expected to drop 2 inches. See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information.

 

scotto

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Lake Erie are forecasted to drop 1 inch, and Lake Ontario is expected to drop 2 inches. See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information.
So it seems we are on our way back down with very little damage this year as compared to last year. My canal level meter has had only a minor increase, maybe good news for a change.



IJC: Lake Ontario levels back to normal range
According to May 4 data from the International Joint Commission, a drier late winter/early spring across the southern Lake Ontario basin of New York state and the North Bay region-Ottawa River basin of Ontario, Canada, is credited with a significant drop in lake levels.
This factor, coupled with record high outflows from the lake over past months, has resulted in Lake Ontario levels being down 1-2 feet or more from the record highs of May 2017, according to local reports. And this comes despite water levels throughout the Great Lakes overall, including Lake Ontario, remaining above their long-term averages.
IJC reports water levels in the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system is now encountering its typical spring rise. But due to several months of record high outflows from the lake into the St. Lawrence River at Massena and lower precipitation, Lake Ontario levels are now back within their normal range. They are expected to remain well below the historic high water event of last spring.
IJC notes the outflows from Lake Ontario into the St. Lawrence continue to be set according to Plan 2014. In past days, IJC began a reduction in outflows from the lake to ensure safe navigation and reduce flood risks in the St. Lawrence River, as levels on the river remain above average in response to the overall above-average levels of both Lake Ontario and the upper Great Lakes.
As is typical in spring, outflows from the Ottawa River into the St. Lawrence River have risen significantly in recent days in response to increased snowmelt and springtime precipitation. However, the Ottawa River Regulation and Planning Board said that, based on the remaining snowpack and weather forecasts, Ottawa River outflows are expected to remain within the normal range of fluctuations for this time of year.
Accordingly, the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board has temporarily reduced outflows from Lake Ontario to balance the risks and impacts of upstream flooding and erosion (on both Lake Ontario and in the Thousand Islands), with the risks of similar impacts downstream in the St. Lawrence River from Montreal through to Three Rivers.
These flow adjustments are being done in accordance with Plan 2014 rules, which reflect operational practices developed over the decades to balance upstream and downstream flood risks.
Currently, the risk of significant flooding either upstream or downstream remains low.
The IJC Board said weather and hydrologic conditions play a more predominant role than water regulation in influencing water levels and, while impossible to predict, the probability of a repeat of last spring's exceptional rains and subsequent high water levels is low.

Whole article;
https://www.wnypapers.com/news/arti.../ijc-lake-ontario-levels-back-to-normal-range
 

scotto

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Lake Ontario water levels above average, below last year
OSWEGO — Lake Ontario water levels are currently nearly 10 inches above average for this time of year, but officials say the levels are within the normal range and roughly 20 inches below the water levels in mid-May last year.

Earlier this month, the International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board announced water levels across the Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River system were starting the typical spring rise, but due to months of high outflows and favorable weather conditions levels were within “normal range” and “well below” the historic high water event that began about a year ago. Officials say the current risk of significant flooding remains low.

“Lake Ontario water levels are expected to stay well below the extreme water levels experienced last year, and the risk of significant flooding either upstream or downstream remains low,” said Arun Heer, secretary for the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board.

The most recent report from the river board places Lake Ontario water levels at 246.98 feet, about 9.8 inches above the 246.16 feet average for this time of year. In May 2017, water levels were approaching 249 feet after rising extremely fast in March and April.

Read whole article;
http://www.oswegocountynewsnow.com/...cle_f502af40-5d0d-11e8-9cf1-47f144c1366e.html
 

Opie

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With the Atlantic hurricane season to start this Friday, the approach of sub tropical Alberto is another reason for the lake level to not be high. For our sake with a large supply of lucky horseshoe’s, Alberto will miss us mostly and stay to the far west and die off. The storm still serves as a warning for potential damage to the other great lakes with storm surges. I am sure the IJC in their 14 year study prior to implementing Plan 2014 took hurricanes and tropical depressions into account. Especially the risk of having elevated lake levels during this season, the two do not mix well for shoreline stake holders. Here’s hoping to an uneventful 2018 storm season and these dry spells we are getting.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/storms-target-southern-ontario-flooding-risk-active-weather-toronto-london-windsor-alberto-remnants/102538
 
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Opie

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To give perspective to the amount of hurricanes that have tracked within a 200 nautical radius of Hamilton area. I went onto the NOAA web site for the historical data of past Hurricanes, I have pasted the link below, their interactive tools are good. But if you do not have the time, below shows that 32 have passed by over the last 100 + years. There are more but this is the max the radius will go.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

 

Opie

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Fran went over us back in 1996 and I don't even remember it.
There have been a few that have passed by the region and just dumped some rain others did have some impact. Found this article from a couple of years ago about the impact our little beach community has felt from some of the hurricanes that did hit along here. It has a couple of pictures showing the aftermath from long ago.

CBC Oct 30, 2012

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/talk/before-sandy-there-was-connie-and-hazel-1.1161596

Before Sandy, there was Connie and Hazel
Hazel and Connie had a rowdy night on the town in Hamilton.
Flannery Dean · CBC News · Posted: Oct 30, 2012 1:27 PM ET | Last Updated: October 30, 2012
Sandy isn't the first tropical storm to hit Hamilton or make its presence known with whipping winds, power outages, flooding and heavy rainfall.
More than 50 years ago, hurricanes Hazel and Connie, respectively touched down in Hamilton. Though their time here was brief — amounting to no more than a rowdy night on the town — both left an enduring mark on the city, and primarily along the stretch of the east end waterfront known as the Beach Strip, said local historian Brian Henley.
"The impact on Hamilton of those hurricanes would be less on the city than on the Beach Strip, which was mainly affected," said Henley.
Brian Henley writes an excellent blog called 'Henley's Hamilton'. It captures remarkable moments in Hamilton history that might otherwise be lost in time.
Hazel comes to Hamilton
Hurricane Hazel, which would kill 81 people in Ontario, leave 4,000 people homeless, and cost an estimated $100 million in damages, began as a tropical disturbance off Grenada on October 5, 1954. The storm later developed into a category 4 hurricane as Hazel travelled to the Caribbean through to Haiti, Cuba, the U.S. and Canada.
By the time Hazel hit the Great Lakes on Oct. 15, her strength had greatly dissipated. Unfortunately, the dying hurricane merged with another extratropical cyclone that was hovering over the Great Lakes at the same time. The result was a powerful and unexpected hybrid storm that would later be dubbed "Hazel II."
Hazel II hit Hamilton sometime before midnight on Oct. 15. Winds reached 110 kilometres per hour (68 mph), and 14-foot waves pounded the Beach Strip, destroying a handful of cottages and summer homes along Van Wagner’s Beach.
The storm didn't leave the rest of the city untouched, however. It also saw landslides on the Mountain Brow, falling trees, flooding on John Street, Victoria and Birch avenues, downed power lines as well as some residential flooding, and caused cave-ins along James Street, according to Environment Canada.
And then came Connie

Hurricane Connie along the beach strip in Hamilton on August 13, 1955. (Hamilton Public Library)
Hurricane Connie began off the Cape Verde Islands on Aug. 3, 1955, eventually making her way into Canada through the northeastern United States. Connie entered Ontario via Lake Erie on Aug. 14 around midnight, by which time she'd been downgraded to a tropical depression.
Once again the Beach Strip felt the storm's wrath most keenly as winds of 56 km/h battered the area and resulted in 12-foot waves.
According to Environment Canada, five cottages were destroyed on Van Wagner's Beach during the onslaught and many others were damaged. A naval harbour tug boat also sunk near Hamilton and more than two dozen motor boats were destroyed in Burlington.

Connie was no longer of hurricane strength by the time it arrived in Hamilton but the winds were strong enough to do damage. (Hamilton Public Library)
Hazel and Connie changed Hamilton
In the early 1950s and for many years before Hazel and Connie came to town, the Beach Strip area was home to summer cottagers and year-round beach dwellers, said Henley.
Proximity to Lake Ontario made these people and their homes vulnerable to "high waves and an influx of water," both of which occurred with the arrival of Hazel and Connie in their various forms.
The areas of Van Wagner Beach and Cherry Beach were most affected by the wind, rain and waves kicked up by both storms. The damage didn't go unnoticed at the municipal or provincial levels.

August 13, 1955 – Connie hits the Hamilton shoreline with waves as large as 6 feet. (Hamilton Public Library)
"So much damage was done and people left homeless that it was decided to expropriate all of the property along Cherry Beach and parts of Van Wagner's Beach to prevent another disaster," said Henley.
The expropriation would change the residential character of the area that had developed since the turn of the century. The changes would be both good and bad.
"Confederation Park was an outgrowth of the expropriation of the flood zones," said Henley.
 

Opie

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Good morning,

Friday June 1st, the average level is at 75.33 M

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.9 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, June lake level average was 75.16 M
The average lake level for June in 2017 was 75.81 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 58 F

Next reading date is Friday June 15th.

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 6 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 8 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 9 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 1 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 4 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

 

scotto

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Good morning,

Friday June 1st, the average level is at 75.33 M



Reading date / Lake Average 2018
May 18 – 75.35
So a minor decrease, hopefully we get some large ones in the near future.

And just to add to your pier photo of the damaged shed from one of our recent storms. Crews have working on the pier for the last couple of days repairing their weather equipment. A small box will replace the shed, as shown in the photo, the new equipment box and the damaged shed behind.

 

Opie

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The IJC does not re appoint Mr. Frank Sciremammano to the IJC boad.

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/2018/06/05/frank-sciremammano-critic-ijc-plan-2014-replaced-lake-ontario-water-level-board/672321002/


A local critic of Lake Ontario water-level regulations is removed from IJC oversight board

Steve Orr, @SOrr1 Published 10:45 a.m. ET June 5, 2018 | Updated 11:00 a.m. ET June 5, 2018

We spoke Facebook live with Frank Sciremammano with the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board about the measures being taken to mitigate flooding along the shoreline, the good and the bad. Steve Orr, Meaghan McDermott, Virginia Butler

Some Lake Ontario shoreline residents are perturbed by the removal of a Brighton engineer from an international board that oversees lake-level regulation.
The engineer, Frank Sciremammano has been a champion of shoreline property owners and a frequent critic of the lake-level rules known as Plan 2014.
Sciremammano had served on the International Joint Commission board since 1995, making him the longest-serving American on the 10-member panel.
The International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board's role is to direct that more water be released from the lake when levels are high, or less released when levels are low, though its power has been scaled back in recent years.
Scriremammano said that his stance on the commission's relatively new lake-level rules, known as Plan 2014, was responsible for the commissioners' decision not to reappoint him.
"It was not normal attrition, but not unexpected given my criticism of the IJC over Plan 2014. They apparently can't handle dissent," Scirmammano said Monday in an email to the Democrat and Chronicle.
Dr. Daniel Barletta, a Greece shoreline resident and the Monroe County director of a shoreline property owners' group, said Sciremammano will be missed.
"He had become our voice. If it were not for his help, the destruction of the south shore would be much greater than it has been," Barletta wrote in the group's newsletter on Friday.
Frank Bevacqua, a spokesman for the IJC, said Sciremammano's opinions of Plan 2014 had nothing to do with the decision not to reappoint him after his term had expired.
"His views on the development of the new regulation plan have differed from the IJC’s positions, but these views were freely expressed over the years and helped to ensure that Lake Ontario shoreline interests were fully considered," Bevacqua said. "He’s been there for over 23 and it was just time to bring in someone new."
Scirmammano, a retired professor of mechanical engineering at Rochester Institute of Technology, has been replaced by another academic — Diane Kuehn, an associate professor at the State University College of Environmental Science and Forestry in Syracuse.
Her areas of interest include recreation resource management and ecotourism, and she has co-authored studies on boating, fishing, bird-watching and many other outdoor recreation topics.
Two other board members with lesser seniority were reappointed by the IJC, Bevacqua said.
The IJC is made up of three appointees each from the United States and Canada, though one U.S. slot remains vacant. President Donald Trump has not yet nominated replacements.
Scirmammano had become intimately familiar with the nuances of lake-level management, and was considered among the best-informed sources on the subject on the lake's American shoreline.
He and Barletta served on an IJC study group convened to re-write the lake-level rules, but they both dissented from the group's 2006 decision because they felt it placed shoreline property owners at a disadvantage.
Sciremammano has been consistent in his criticism of the new regulatory approach, which was meant to allow a more natural fluctuation in lake levels. He and other critics argued that its environmental benefits were unproven and that damage to the shoreline would be greater than the IJC predicted.
Plan 2014 was finally adopted by the IJC in 2016 and put into use in January 2017.
The worst flooding on record began a few months later. Unlike many shoreline residents and local politicians, Sciremammano acknowledged that excessive rainfall was responsible for the flooding, not Plan 2014.
But he has continued to criticize the plan, saying it makes serious flooding and harmful low-water episodes more likely in the future, and that it has limited the board's ability to react to those situations.
SORR@Gannett.com
 
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scotto

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More good news?
Lake peaking, levels to drop
June 12th, 2018
QuinteNews
As of June 5, Lake Ontario’s level was 4 cm (1.6 in.) lower than its 2018 peak value of 75.30 m (247.05 ft) reached on 22 May, 20 cm (7.9 in.) above average, but 59 cm (23.2 in.) below the level on this date last year, when Lake Ontario was near its record peak of 2017. Lake Ontario has likely reached its seasonal peak this year, and while further rain events may cause lake levels to temporarily stabilize or rise slightly, water levels are expected to generally continue to fall over the summer months.

Lake Ontario outflows continue to be set according to Plan 2014, which continues to respond to the above-average levels of Lake Ontario and inflows from the upper Great Lakes. The amount of water released from Lake Ontario over the past 12-month period (June 2017 through May 2018), is the second-highest amount recorded during such a period since records began in 1900 (only those in 1986-1987 were slightly higher), and is equivalent to almost 15 metres or 50 feet of water drained out of Lake Ontario in the last 12 months.

Recent outflows had been in accordance with the L-limit rules of Plan 2014 that prescribe the maximum flows that can be released for a given Lake Ontario level while maintaining safe conditions for navigation in the upper section of the St. Lawrence River. Flows continue to be well-above average and are presently the sixth- highest outflow recorded on this date since 1960. On Sunday, 3 June, outflows were reduced dramatically by as much as 16 percent to facilitate the successful refloating of a grounded tanker, the Chem Norma, near Morrisburg, ON. By the time the ship was freed, the flow reductions had raised Lake St. Lawrence levels by up to 30 cm (1 ft.) in the vicinity of the vessel. In so doing, 1 cm (0.4 in.) of water was temporarily stored on Lake Ontario. This small amount of water is already in the process of being removed from Lake Ontario now that the ship is no longer stuck.

Whole article;
http://www.quintenews.com/2018/06/lake-peaking-levels-to-drop/179203/
 
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Opie

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Good morning,

Friday June 15th, the average level is at 75.25 M

The IJC forecasted the level around this date to be 74.85 M
Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, June lake level average was 75.16 M
The average lake level for June in 2017 was 75.81 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 58 F

Next reading date is Friday June 29th.

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71


News from around the lake

Lake Ontario water levels are way down, but not low enough for comfort
By Thomas J. Prohaska | Published Wednesday at undefined | Updated Wednesday at undefined

It's been a quiet spring along the shores of Lake Ontario, where the water level is nearly 2 feet lower than it was at this time last year, when flooding and erosion were the main issues.
But some residents are pointing out that the waters remain higher than long-term averages, and in some instances are already encroaching on repairs they made last year, at major expense.
Olcott Beach near Krull Park in Olcott, which was closed all last summer because it was underwater, is open again.
However, Newfane Supervisor Timothy R. Horanburg said there isn't as much sunbathing space as there was the last time the beach was usable, in 2016.
"It's much less than normal," Horanburg said, "unless they're considering this the new normal."
As of Friday, the Army Corps of Engineers said lake waters stood 22 inches lower than a year ago and are trending downward. The Corps forecasts a drop of four inches in the next month.
"Lake Ontario has likely reached its seasonal peak this year, and while further rain events may cause lake levels to temporarily stabilize or rise slightly, water levels are expected to generally continue to fall over the summer months," the International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board announced Monday.
However, the water remains 9 inches higher than the long-term average level for the second week of June.
Residents react
"I'm pretty protected," said Ben Faery, a lakefront property owner in Wilson, who after last year's floods and erosion plunked down more than $60,000 for a contractor to
FULL ARTICLE IS HERE
http://buffalonews.com/2018/06/13/lake-ontario-water-levels-are-way-down-but-not-low-enough-for-comfort/



Lake Ontario Flooding; one year later
By:
James Gilbert

Posted: Jun 14, 2018 11:13 PM EDT
Updated: Jun 14, 2018 11:13 PM EDT

SODUS POINT, NY (WROC) - The winds Thursday created waves cresting up to five feet along the southern shores of Lake Ontario and last year at this time would have spelled disaster for those along the lake. This year has been much different.
Captain Jack's Good Time Tavern had to shut their doors for a period of time because of the restaurant flooding. "It just sort of hit us out of nowhere," said bar tender Tim Jenkins. He worked there during the 2017 record lake flooding.
He frequently gets customers asking about the flooding. "They want to see, 'Where was the water?' Because they heard about it, and so, we'll show them!" Said Jenkins.
" we just come here when we don't want to make our own dinner," said Otto Meijer, who put his boat in three months late in 2017. They now are making up for lost time.
"We went to help them out, and we went to have dinner here," said Meijer.
No flooding means excitement for those in the Sodus Bay area, with memories of last year on the back burner. "You couldn't go anywhere without seeing sandbags, but this year there's no sandbags, there's no water, it's nice," said Jenkins.

FULL CHANNEL 8 NEWS VIDEO
http://www.rochesterfirst.com/news/local-news/lake-ontario-flooding-one-year-later/1240174097
 
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