Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

Opie

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Came across this on the Army Corp of Engineers web site this morning, Their forecast is out for 2019 and looks like we are in for a possible repeat of 2017.

I will do some digging around and see what else they have but its odd that they would put this up at all. It was like pulling teeth from the IJC and Army Corp for to give any forecast past 6 months. But they do protect themselves by adding "Experimental 5 year forecast" to the header.

here is the link and the outlook for the other Great lakes- experimental or not, it does make one think about what can come

https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Miss...vels/Water-Level-Forecast/Long-Term-Forecast/



1541600107546.png
 
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Opie

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Mar 1, 2017
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Friday November 16th, the average level is at 74.68 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the November lake level average has been 74.54 M
The average lake level for November in 2017 was 74.87 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 48 F

Next reading date is: Friday November 30th

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Updated forecast into 2019 & Experimental 5 year forecast from the Army Corps of Engineers.

 
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Opie

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This reading looks encouraging, unless we monsoon rains we should be about the same as last year or even lower as we are roughly .2 meters lower.
Hi Scott it does look encouraging but still it would be better to see more of a drop. The eastern shores of Lake Ontario are still taking a beating every time we have a storm from the west.
 
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Opie

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Friday November 30th, the average level is at 74.696 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the November lake level average has been 74.54 M
The average lake level for November in 2017 was 74.87 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 46 F

Next reading date is: Friday December 14th

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Updated forecast into 2019 & Experimental 5 year forecast from the Army Corps of Engineers.



 
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Opie

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Friday December 14th, the average level is at 74.727 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the December lake level average has been 74.57 M
The average lake level for December in 2017 was 74.77 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 42 F

Next reading date is: Friday December 28th

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Updated forecast into 2019 & Experimental 5 year forecast from the Army Corps of Engineers.


 
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scotto

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Posted with permission from the Hamilton Spectator
______________________________________________________________________

Hamilton faces $30-million bill to fix, protect storm-battered shorelines
Council is applying for federal climate adaptation grants to help prevent high water levels and storm surges from eating away at its popular waterfront trails.
December 27th, 2018 by Matthew Van Dongen The Hamilton Spectator


In this photo from May 2017, churning Lake Ontario waves have obliterated the shoreline along the Hamilton side of the Waterfront trail. - Gary Yokoyama , The Hamilton Spectator

Hamilton faces an estimated $30-million bill to fix and protect shorelines battered by storms and record high water levels.
The city hired a specialized consultant to evaluate the damage along the city's harbour and Lake Ontario shorelines following historically high water levels in 2017, and follow-up storms that drowned sections of waterfront trail, flooded beach strip streets and washed away sensitive sand dunes.
The experts recently returned with a $6.8-million estimate to fix and stormproof the section of asphalt path that follows the west side of the harbour from Cootes Paradise to Bayfront Park.

Studies continue on how to deal with the eroded and storm-chomped Lake Ontario shoreline stretching from the Burlington Lift Bridge all the way past Confederation Park into Stoney Creek. But early "high-level" estimates prompted council this month to apply for a $30-million federal grant for shoreline protection work.

"I knew it was going to be a lot, but I'm sure it's a shocking number for people at first glance," said Coun. Chad Collins, who represents Ward 5 and the beach strip battered by successive storms.

"Anyone who lives along that shoreline, they know the waves in the right circumstances can be very destructive. And some of the storms we've seen in recent years have been out of this world."

While high water levels in 2017 flooded trails and parks for long periods, some of the worst damage came in early 2018 when a vicious wind-driven ice storm took huge bites out of the lakeside trail leading to and through Confederation Park.

Longtime resident Jim Howlett said he watched waves overtop the trail leading behind beach strip homes. "I don't think we've seen that since the early '90s," he said at the time.

While the city has completed basic repairs to most of the damaged trails — sometimes by rerouting them around storm-chomped holes in the shoreline — there is "little wiggle room" along some sections of the beach strip where homes are just a few metres from the water, Collins noted.

"If this is the new norm, no doubt we'll need to be looking at wholesale design changes (to the waterfront)," he said.
It's not clear yet what the consultant will recommend for the Lake Ontario waterfront. Along the harbour, suggestions include building up the level of the asphalt path and costly slope excavation and protection along the water-hugging trail.

Collins said a recommendation to "harden" the waterfront with armour stone or seawalls — like along the downtown Burlington waterfront, for example — would likely spur a debate over the pros and cons of maintaining the current natural look and function of the shoreline.

The city is applying for nearly $63 million in federal cash from a disaster mitigation and adaptation program meant to acknowledge the challenges of climate change for cities.
That grant money would help — but council would still have to come up with its own matching millions, Collins noted. Right now, only $150,000 is immediately budgeted next year for design work.

The Waterfront Trail has witnessed a daily average of 954 users this year — a number that spikes over the warmer months.



mvandongen@thespec.com

905-526-3241 | @Mattatthespec

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/...ill-to-fix-protect-storm-battered-shorelines/
 
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Opie

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Good Find Scott

As we approach a new year, I will give you my prediction for 2019 which is " we will see flooding again " as bad as 2017 is hard to say? That will depend on how fast the ice clears out of the St Lawrence and what bad spring storms we get. But the possibility of flooding is still as great next year as it was this year. The IJC released a record amount of water from Lake Ontario thru the Moses Saunders dam this year and will continue to do the same next year. The other great lakes are still holding a record amount of water and this still needs to pass thru Lake Ontario. This past years record release of water made a small dent in the overall inventory of water within the great lakes system.

all the best for 2019 !


Posted with permission from the Hamilton Spectator
______________________________________________________________________

Hamilton faces $30-million bill to fix, protect storm-battered shorelines
Council is applying for federal climate adaptation grants to help prevent high water levels and storm surges from eating away at its popular waterfront trails.
December 27th, 2018 by Matthew Van Dongen The Hamilton Spectator


In this photo from May 2017, churning Lake Ontario waves have obliterated the shoreline along the Hamilton side of the Waterfront trail. - Gary Yokoyama , The Hamilton Spectator
 

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
211
37
28
The Beach Strip
Friday December 28th, the average level is at 74.78 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the December lake level average has been 74.57 M
The average lake level for December in 2017 was 74.77 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 41 F

Next reading date is: Friday January 11th, 2019

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Updated forecast into 2019 & Experimental 5 year forecast from the Army Corps of Engineers.


 

scotto

Administrator
Staff member
Feb 15, 2004
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Good Find Scott

As we approach a new year, I will give you my prediction for 2019 which is " we will see flooding again " as bad as 2017 is hard to say? That will depend on how fast the ice clears out of the St Lawrence and what bad spring storms we get. But the possibility of flooding is still as great next year as it was this year. The IJC released a record amount of water from Lake Ontario thru the Moses Saunders dam this year and will continue to do the same next year. The other great lakes are still holding a record amount of water and this still needs to pass thru Lake Ontario. This past years record release of water made a small dent in the overall inventory of water within the great lakes system.

all the best for 2019 !
Looking at the readings you have posted that we are on our way to much the same as this past year. December is very close, so hopefully we never see the levels of 2017 again.
All the best.
 
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Opie

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News from around the lakes

First article caught my attention solely for the fact that the IJC is deviating from its plan governing the lake to offset the effect of high water levels- causing shoreline erosion and costal damage. This leads me to the second article regarding the Great Lakes water levels and make you wonder how will Lakes Michigan/Huron handle the influx of increased water flow when they are way above capacity ??

https://www.sootoday.com/local-news/prepare-for-above-average-water-levels-in-lake-superior-1181747

Prepare for above-average water levels in Lake Superior
Wet conditions and water levels remain well above average
66
Jan 4, 2019 8:00 AM by: SooToday Staff

File photo. Donna Hopper/SooToday
NEWS RELEASE
INTERNATIONAL LAKE SUPERIOR BOARD OF CONTROL
*************************
December, like October and November, saw wet conditions across the upper Great Lakes basin, and water levels of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron remain well above average.
The above-average levels coupled with strong winds and waves continue to result in shoreline erosion and coastal damages across the upper Great Lakes system. Additional shoreline erosion and coastal damages may occur this winter should active weather continue.
Lake Superior declined 7 cm (3 in) overall last month and Lake Michigan-Huron declined 2 cm (1 in), which are both below average declines for December. On average, Lake Superior declines 8 cm (3 in) and Lake Michigan-Huron declines 5 cm (2 in) in December.
At the beginning of January, Lake Superior is 29 cm (11 in) above average (1918 – 2017), and 5 cm (2 in) below the level at this time last year. Lake Michigan-Huron is currently 52 cm (20 in) above average, and 8 cm (3 in) above last year’s beginning-of-January level. Both Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron are expected to continue their seasonal declines in January.
In consideration of the continuing high water levels in the upper Great Lakes, and to accommodate expected maintenance at the hydropower plants, the International Lake Superior Board of Control (Board) recently requested and received approval from the International Joint Commission (IJC) to temporarily deviate from Regulation Plan 2012 this winter.
All three hydropower plants will continue to be directed to flow at their maximum available capacity, but the total combined capacity is expected to be less than normal due to required maintenance activities in December and continuing into January.
To offset the effects of these activities, over the winter months the Board will release more water through the control structure at the head of the St. Marys Rapids by maintaining a gate setting equivalent to two gates fully open instead of the typical winter setting equivalent to one-half gate open.
As a result, flows less than Plan 2012 are expected in January, while flows greater than Plan 2012 are expected later in winter as hydropower maintenance is completed and capacity returns to normal. The total amount of water released through the St. Marys River this winter will be approximately equal to releases called for by Plan 2012, and the net effects on the water levels of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron are expected to be minimal by spring.
The Board expects the total flow in January to be 2,220 cms (85,108 cubic feet per second (cfs)), which is 190 cms (4,591 cfs) less than that prescribed by Plan 2012. Actual outflows may vary depending on hydrologic and ice conditions, as well as maintenance activities at the hydropower plants on the St. Marys River.
The gate setting of the control structure will be maintained at the current setting (Gates #2 through #16 open 26 cm (10 in) each). There will be no change to the setting of Gate #1, which supplies a flow of about 15 cms (530 cfs) to the channel north of the Fishery Remedial Dike.
The Board stresses that hydrologic conditions are the primary driver of water level fluctuations. Water levels of the Great Lakes cannot be fully controlled through regulation of outflows, nor can regulation completely eliminate the risk of extreme water levels from occurring during periods of severe weather and water supply conditions.
It is not possible to accurately predict such conditions weeks in advance, but given the current levels of the lakes, the Board advises all those that may be impacted prepare for the above average water levels, should they continue this winter.

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/bill-s-blog/great-lakes-water-levels-and-news-3/1680573652
Great Lakes Water Levels and News
By:
  • Bill Steffen

    • Posted: Dec 31, 2018 01:39 AM EST
      Updated: Dec 31, 2018 07:33 PM EST
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      1546956258485.jpg Copyright 2019 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
      Saugatuck Sunday evening 12/30/18
      1546956258917.jpg Copyright 2019 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
      Saugatuck Sunday evening 12/30/18
      The above pic. from our Storm Team 8 Saugatuck Skycam was taken shortly after sunset on Sunday Dec. 30. You're looking out over Kalamazoo Lake, which is connected to Lake Michigan.
      Lake Superior is down 3" in the last month, down 1" in the last year, but it's still 10" above the long-term average. Lake Michigan/Huron is down 1" in the last month. The lakes were up 3" in 2018 and they are now 19" above the century average for late December. Lake Erie is up 1" in the last month, up 7" year-to-year and is now a full 24" higher than the average level. Lake Ontario is up 4" in the last month, unchanged since Dec. 2017 and is now 9" above the long-term average. Lake St. Clair is unchanged in the last month, up 5" in the last year and is now 22" higher than average.
 
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Opie

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Friday January 11th, the average level is at 74.81 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the January lake level average has been 74.60 M
The average lake level for January in 2017 was 74.62 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 40 F

Next reading date is: Friday January 25th, 2019

Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Updated forecast into 2019 & Experimental 5 year forecast from the Army Corps of Engineers.



 
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scotto

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Friday January 11th (2019), the average level is at 74.81 M, the level back in January 12th (2018) was also 74.81 M. Once again depending on the amount of precipitation, we should be on track for another of the same as last year.
After the disaster from two years ago, I can safely assume that the levels will be closely watched and adjusted as needed.
 
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Opie

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Mother nature and the wonderful gifts she gives us. After the storm passed us Saturday and plunging the temperatures into minus 30 C come Sunday morning, we a woke to this wonderful sight ! You may call it an ice shelf, ice cap, lake ice mountains but I would like to call it an ice wall of protection. There is easily about 150' of mostly solid ice now protecting the beach shoreline all the way down from the pier to Confederation Park.
 
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