Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
Good morning

Thought I would start with some news from around the lake,

since many are running the below story in various forms this week, I found this one to cover most of the topic. As I watched the short video in the beginning and read the article, it was refreshing to see as it is seldom pointed out. It shows that only so much water can be released from the Mosses Saunders dam or Montreal and all the other areas built on an established flood plain will flood. What is not comforting about the current situation is the lake level is currently higher this year than compared to the same reporting period back in 2017, The amount of water being released this year is higher than it was back in 2017. Also mentioned is, Montreal and the surrounding area has already seen an inordinate amount of precipitation which does not make for a good case of releasing more water from the Mosses Saunders dam once spring comes later-similar to 2017.

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/2019/02/19/flooding-rochester-ny-lake-ontario-water-level-high/2905594002/


Friday February 22nd, the average level is at 75.00 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the February lake level average has been 74.68 M
The average lake level for February in 2017 was 74.82 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 36.6 F

Next reading date is: Friday March 8th, 2019

Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Feb 08 – 74.96
Jan 25 – 74.88
Jan 11 – 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Updated forecast for 2019 & Experimental 5 year forecast from the Army Corps of Engineers.


 
Likes: scotto

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
Good morning

Starting off with news from around the lake

https://www.niagara-gazette.com/news/local_news/lawmakers-urge-mcconnell-to-hold-vote-on-ijc-nominees/article_cc84c41a-8594-59c9-aa47-2a4e3675d5b6.html

https://www.wrvo.org/post/federal-lawmakers-criticize-lake-ontario-water-level-management


Since the last reading I have watched the lake level actually dip lower this last week, checking weather and wind direction and they do not play into this. Which would mean that the record amount of water being released by the IJC is working but will it last ? This weekend warm weather will start the spring thaw and could cause the IJC to slow the release of water as areas ( ie Montreal ) downstream of the Mosses Saunders dam may yet again experience flooding in the coming weeks.



Friday March 8th, the average level is at 74.97 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the February lake level average has been 74.75 M
The average lake level for March 2017 was 75.00 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 35.7 F

Next reading date is: Friday March 15th, 2019

Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Feb 22 – 75.00
Feb 08 – 74.96
Jan 25 – 74.88
Jan 11 – 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Updated forecast for 2019 & Experimental 5 year forecast from the Army Corps of Engineers.



 

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
Good morning

Since the last reading and even within the last 24 hours, the lake level has been bobbing up and down erratically due to the weather. In the last 24 hours it was as low as 74.886 M to a height of 75.111 M happening just a few hours apart. Yesterday’s storm is certain to add more water to the Lake Ontario basin.

Friday March 15th, the average level is at 75.0 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the March lake level average has been 74.75 M
The average lake level for March 2017 was 75.00 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 35.45 F

Next reading date is: Friday March 29th, 2019

Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Mar 08 – 74.97
Feb 22 – 75.00
Feb 08 – 74.96
Jan 25 – 74.88
Jan 11 – 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71



 
Likes: scotto

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
good morning

current lake level average by the lift bridge is 75.03 M

here is some news from around the lake. The comments at the end are just as interesting to read, so grab a coffee and enjoy



Great Lakes are rapidly warming, likely to trigger more flooding and extreme weather
The Great Lakes region is warming faster than the rest of the U.S., which likely will bring more flooding and other extreme weather such as heat waves and drought, according to a scientific report.

Report also predicts more severe algae blooms will increase water treatment costs
The Associated Press · Posted: Mar 21, 2019 12:35 PM ET | Last Updated: March 21


The Great Lakes region is warming faster than the rest of the U.S., a new report says. Farming could be hit especially hard, with heavy rains delaying spring planting and dry spells requiring more summer irrigation. (CBC News)

371 comments


The Great Lakes region is warming faster than the rest of the U.S., a trend that is likely to bring more extreme storms while also degrading water quality, worsening erosion and posing tougher challenges for farming, scientists report.
In a report commissioned by the Chicago-based Environmental Law & Policy Center, the annual mean air temperature in the region increased 0.89 C in the periods 1901-60 and 1985-2016 — compared to 0.67 C for the rest of U.S.
The region includes portions of the U.S. Midwest, Northeast and southern Canada.

Warming is expected to continue this century, with rates depending on how much heat-trapping gases — like carbon dioxide and methane — are pumped into the atmosphere.
As the air warms, it will hold more moisture, which will likely mean heavier winter snowstorms and spring rains. There could also be more flooding in vulnerable areas.
Not only that, summers will be hotter and drier.
"Over the last two centuries, the Great Lakes have been significantly impacted by human activity, and climate change is now adding more challenges and another layer of stress," said Don Weubbles, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois and former assistant director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Obama administration.
"This report paints a stark picture of changes in store for the lake as a result of our changing climate."
There were 18 scientists who produced the report, most from midwestern universities and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Warming climate
The Great Lakes hold about one-fifth of the world's surface fresh water. They are so large that they influence regional weather.
The lakes keep nearby regions cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter, when compared regions farther inland. The humidity of the lakes also fuels the "lake-effect" snowfall and summer rains.
Not only do the lakes provide drinking water for millions of people, they are the backbone of an economy built on manufacturing, agriculture and tourism.

rest of the article and comments can be found here : https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/great-lakes-climate-warming-1.5065922
 
Likes: scotto

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
Good morning

News from around the lakes

Homes along Lake Erie eroding shoreline have little protection
Record-high lake levels combined with years of damage along the shoreline mean the homes along the lake are literally on the edge.
'You have to see it to understand,' says one property owner
CBC News · Posted: Mar 21, 2019 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: March 21

Steve Withers says he's lost about 1.5 metres of his property due to shoreline erosion. (Dale Molnar/CBC)

The local conservation authority expects Lake Erie water levels to surpass records set in 1996 and 1998.
According to Tim Byrne, director of watershed management services with the Essex Region Conservation Authority, the water levels have been high for the last four or five years, which has exacerbated the erosion of the shoreline. "We could see significant portions of the lake road lost in Chatham-Kent," said Byrne, adding that all shoreline along Lake Erie — on both the mainland and on Pelee Island — is in rough shape."In some locations the lake has embedded the rock [that fell away] and built upon to stabilize, especially the west coast of Pelee Island," said Byrne.Shoreline protection plans for the west coast of the island alone will cost close to $15 million.
More than 100 homes 'significantly impacted'
The conservation authority has regular discussions with government officials to see how property owners can mitigate damages. However, Byrne said "there is precious little action property owners can take to protect themselves." REST OF THE STORY CAN BE FOUND BELOW

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/shoreline-erosion-lake-erie-1.5064064

*********************************************************************************************

Friday March 29th, the average level is at 75.018 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the March lake level average has been 74.75 M
The average lake level for March 2017 was 75.00 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 36 F

Next reading date is: Friday April 12th, 2019

Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Mar 15 – 75.0
Mar 08 – 74.97
Feb 22 – 75.00
Feb 08 – 74.96
Jan 25 – 74.88
Jan 11 – 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Updated forecast for 2019 & Experimental 5 year forecast from the Army Corps of Engineers.



 
Likes: scotto

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
Saw this article from last week and it brought to mind the property our family had on the shores of Georgian Bay. Early on after the house was built in the late sixties we soon experienced the storms that would soon send waves up over the dock onto the lawn towards the house in the spring, summer and fall or ice packs up onto the lawn in the late winter, early spring. My parents in fear of seeing their hard work be swept out or damaged decided to build a wall along the shore line. After a long summer of countless dump truck loads of large rocks, gravel and back fill rose this tall imposing wall, we were prepared for whatever Mother Nature would throw at us. Sure enough no more storm surge on the lawn and very little ice jams made it up onto the lawn. Subsequent years we saw most of the neighbor’s take notice and built similar fortifications. Then sometime in the early 80’s the lake level began to drop slowly and the wall grew taller as the shoreline receded to its old line. A few years ago a passerby asked about the stone walls and why they were built so far up on shore……

Where I am going with this is before we rebuild and put down some fortifications let’s remember where the old established shoreline is. This is what all our infrastructure was built around and that current lake level is not the norm as put to us by the IJC. Its great the city is going to make repairs taking money from my left pocket, province from my right and now the Feds from my back pocket but it will be money wasted if the underlying problem is not addressed and fixed. So can we ask the Feds to instead use the money from my back pocket and start working with the City of Montreal, province of Quebec and stop allowing growth to be built on an established flood plain along the St Lawrence. Purchase these homes, business and vacant properties - turn the lands into park lands void of any human inhabitants so that there is a less obstructed spillway for the Mosses Saunders dam. One statement that the IJC kept repeating during the flooding of 2017 was that they could not release more water from Lake Ontario or it would cause more flooding around the Montreal area instead the shoreline of Lake Ontario took the beating. The IJC has since been great to report every so often that they are releasing record amounts of water from Lake Ontario but it is still not enough.

************************************************************

Feds pledge $12.7M to rebuild after extreme storms batter city's shoreline
The federal government has announced $12.7 million in funding for shoreline rehabilitation in Hamilton, to help rebuild after extreme storms battered the edge of the harbour in recent years.
Funding also set to go towards backflow devices in sewer system

Adam Carter · CBC News · Posted: Apr 04, 2019 12:43 PM ET | Last Updated: April 4

Storms in 2017 and 2018 washed away portions of Hamilton's shoreline. (Hamilton Conservation Authority)
2 comments
The federal government has announced $12.7 million in funding for shoreline rehabilitation in Hamilton, to help rebuild after extreme storms battered the edge of the harbour in recent years.
Infrastructure and Communities Minister Francois Phillipe Champagne made the announcement Thursday, telling reporters at the Woodward Wastewater Treatment Plant that funding will be used to combat damage from extreme storms brought on by climate change.
"We've seen storms and rising water levels in Hamilton," Champagne said. "These extreme weather events are not just stronger, but more frequent. This is real."
Sections of the Waterfront Trail were completely washed away and closed for months both in 2017 and 2018 after surging water levels brought on by storms wreaked havoc on the well-loved Hamilton trail.
"Entire pieces of the shoreline ended up in the lake," said Cynthia Graham, the city's manager of landscape architectural services. City staffers have estimated cleanup and protection of the city's shoreline would cost $30 million.
The federal government said in a news release the city will provide the remainder of the funding.

Francois Phillipe Champagne, federal minister of infrastructure and communities, says the climate change issues appearing in Hamilton are also happening all across the country. (Adam Carter/CBC)
Graham said the city plans to "armour the shoreline" with large stones to protect it from waves, alongside other measures that are still being worked out.
"These areas of the city are some of the most valuable we have," she said.
The government funding announced Friday will also be used for the installation of new backflow devices in the city's sewer system, which are designed to prevent lake and harbour water from entering sewers during extreme storms, and therefore lessen basement flooding. Extreme storms is recent years have caused flooding in homes in a number of city neighbourhoods.
Flooding is an ongoing issue in the broader region,as well. In nearby Brantford, nearly 5,000 people ended up under an evacuation order in early 2018 after the Grand River flooded.

Repairs of the Waterfront Trail are slated to cost $30 million. (City of Hamilton)
Champagne said it's obvious that climate change is the root cause of these problems, and communities must "adapt to a sad and complex reality."
"If we do not invest in disaster adaptation, we will need to invest in disaster remediation," he said.
Climate change is an issue on which the federal and provincial governments don't seem to agree.
Provincial Environment Minister Rod Phillips has vowed Ontario "will use every tool at our disposal to challenge" the federal Liberal government's carbon tax.
"We don't need a carbon tax to fight climate change," he said as the new pan-Canadian policy took effect this week.

Mayor Fred Eisenberger said the funding will go towards important shoreline work that will improve the area for the future. (Adam Carter/CBC)
Meanwhile, federal Environment Minister Catherine McKenna argues it's "challenging" to find one thing Ottawa and Ontario agree on when it comes to the new national climate change framework.
"They've cut the programs that we were investing in energy efficiency. They're taking credit for what the previous government did on coal. They don't want to put a price on pollution. They're fighting us in court," she told CBC Radio's Metro Morning.
When asked Thursday if the two levels of government are on the same page, Champagne totally dodged the question.
"I'll certainly say the city gets it," Champagne said.
"The people of Hamilton have seen the cost of inaction."
 
Likes: scotto

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
I found this past article from 2017 during the Montreal flooding. It would be interesting to find out that after 2 years, has the CMM or Quebec Ministry of Environment if they finally updated the flood maps.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/flood-maps-montreal-1.4113148

What are flood maps, and why are they important?
Used by urban planners and for disaster planning, it's critical to have up-to-date maps. Montreal doesn't.


Used by urban planners and for disaster planning, it's critical to have up-to-date maps. Montreal doesn't
Roberto Rocha · CBC News · Posted: May 12, 2017 5:42 PM ET | Last Updated: May 12, 2017


The only up-to-date flood maps for the Montreal area cover the Lake of Two Mountains and the Mille Îles River. For most of the Montreal island's shoreline, there is no current data. (Sources: Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec and Google Maps)
Flood maps are important tools for urban planners, civil security agencies and residents. They help home buyers measure the risk of owning properties on or near waterfront and help insurance companies calculate premiums for those properties.
For all those reasons, it's important to have up-to-date flood maps that take into account climate patterns and changes to land use.
How are flood maps made?
To measure areas that are prone to flooding, complex calculations are made that take into account historical floods, changing river levels and flow rates, as well as the elevation of land.

With these numbers, experts come up with two scenarios:
  • The 20-year floodplain, or zones that are likely to flood once every 20 years.
  • The 100-year floodplain, those that are likely to flood once a century.
Here's the current flood map for Cap-Saint-Jacques and L'Anse-à-l'Orme Nature Park in the West Island. The light red zone is the 20-year floodplain, and the dark red zone is the 100-year floodplain.
Compare it with the actual extent of the recent floods, according to satellite images released by the Quebec government.

Who makes flood maps?
There is no standard for the creation of flood maps in Quebec. In some cases, municipalities may commission their own maps. In other cases, they could be produced by the provincial government.
For the Montreal area, they are made by the Montreal Metropolitan Community (CMM), a council that includes municipalities on the island of Montreal, Laval and on the South and North Shores.
All flood maps in the province are collected and distributed by the Quebec Environment Ministry, which sells the digitized versions for $111.
What kinds of flood maps are available in Montreal?
Montreal's flood maps include very little data that is up-to-date and useful.
The only maps that are current cover the Lake of Two Mountains and the Mille Îles River between Laval and the North Shore.
Flood information websites for both the City of Montreal and the Quebec government offer printable maps in PDF format for much of the Ottawa and St. Lawrence rivers.
There are no flood maps for most of Montreal's shoreline.


Flood maps for the Lake of Two Mountains and the Mille Îles River were the only ones made with new data in 2006. For the Rivière des Prairies, the flood maps were made in the 80s and are no longer fit for planning. (Sources: Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec and Google Maps)
Another city website with flood information contains a map that is so small, it's impossible to see detailed floodplains.
Compare this with public, easy-to-find flood maps for Manhattan and for all of France.
The Quebec government does have archived flood maps for the Rivière des Prairies which the CBC obtained. They were created in the 1980s and taken out of circulation around 2006, when new studies on flood risks were done.
But new maps have not been created for this area with the latest data, which is already 11 years old.
To show how out of date they are, here's how they compare to the actual extent of current flooding at the western tip of Pierrefonds:

Compare this outdated map to the actual flooding on an eastern sector near Saint-Jean Boulevard:

So there are no maps for Pierrefonds. What information is available?
The latest usable data are projections for how high the river would rise at these theoretical 20-year and 100-year periods. But these numbers are just the start; they're one of several ingredients for usable flood maps.
The most recent projection of a major 100-year flood on the Rivière des Prairies predicts it could rise to 24.42 metres. During the highest peak of the flood, on May 8, it rose more than 20 cm past that projection.
 

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
Friday April 12th, the average level is at 75.10 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the April lake level average has been 74.94 M
The average lake level for April 2017 was 75.35 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 36.5 F

Next reading date is: Monday April 29th, 2019

Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Mar 29 – 75.018
Mar 15 – 75.0
Mar 08 – 74.97
Feb 22 – 75.00
Feb 08 – 74.96
Jan 25 – 74.88
Jan 11 – 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Updated forecast for 2019 & Experimental 5 year forecast from the Army Corps of Engineers.


 
Likes: scotto

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
Morning Scott,
walking down on the pier last night noticed the lake level is creeping up your "measuring stick". Taking a look at the Fisheries and Oceans web site, the lake level is rising since last Friday's read, current average is now 75.16 M. With another major weather soaker predicted for this week, it should send the level up even higher. Further downstream flooding has started in the Ottawa region which will mean the IJC will soon be slowing the discharge from the Mosses Saunders dam. to ease the flooding expected for the region and Montreal areas. I have gathered a few recent articles on what is happening down in the region.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-river-planning-board-1.5100823

https://globalnews.ca/news/5174037/quebec-beauce-region-flooding-2019/

https://www.ottawamatters.com/local...ooded-out-and-more-rain-is-on-the-way-1375698
 

scotto

Administrator
Staff member
Feb 15, 2004
6,599
122
63
The Beach Strip
Morning Scott,
walking down on the pier last night noticed the lake level is creeping up your "measuring stick". Taking a look at the Fisheries and Oceans web site, the lake level is rising since last Friday's read, current average is now 75.16 M. With another major weather soaker predicted for this week, it should send the level up even higher. Further downstream flooding has started in the Ottawa region which will mean the IJC will soon be slowing the discharge from the Mosses Saunders dam. to ease the flooding expected for the region and Montreal areas. I have gathered a few recent articles on what is happening down in the region.
I was looking at that rail yesterday and yes, it is getting higher when in past years the level was starting to inch down at this time of the year. And lots wet weather coming, hopefully our Easter Hunt gets a pass.
 

scotto

Administrator
Staff member
Feb 15, 2004
6,599
122
63
The Beach Strip
Pols calls for action as Lake Ontario levels hit highest point since 2017

“This raises a number of extremely serious concerns,” Manktelow said. “The lake is already 14 inches higher than usual. The Army Corps of Engineers’ forecasting data shows that all of the Great Lakes’ water levels are significantly above long-term averages and are to remain so until at least July. There is the potential for devastation; the villages of Sodus Point and Fair Haven in my district would be underwater. This can be prevented; it would be beyond negligent if nothing was done.”

Assemblyman Will Barclay, R-Pulaski, said some residents and businesses still have not recovered from the last flood two years ago, and officials must do everything possible to ensure water levels do not reach flood stage again this year.

“The time to act is now,” Barclay said. “I look forward to working with state and federal legislative colleagues to make sure we don’t have a repeat of 2017.”

Lake levels are about six inches higher than February 2017 and roughly three inches higher than this time in 2018, but regulators say the 2017 events were caused by heavy rainfall in April and May not high winter lake levels.

“We’re a little higher than we were last year and we’re higher than we were in 2017,” said Bryce Carmichael, secretary of the ILOSLRB. “We’re not panicking. Nobody is throwing up huge red flags at this point.“

Whole article;
http://www.oswegocountynewsnow.com/...cle_93b7aaae-3941-11e9-ae62-bb13d3dbbeba.html


More;
https://globalnews.ca/news/5183743/hamilton-potential-floods-easter/

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/flood-threat-rises
 

scotto

Administrator
Staff member
Feb 15, 2004
6,599
122
63
The Beach Strip
Checking my canal level meter today we can see that the lake level is still moving up.
Level Apr24.JPG


Checking the level on the next day (April 25th) and there is another noticeable rise in lake level.

Level Apr25.JPG
 
Last edited:

scotto

Administrator
Staff member
Feb 15, 2004
6,599
122
63
The Beach Strip
Posted with permission from the Hamilton Spectator
_____________________________________________________________________________

Lake Ontario’s water levels are rising. Here’s why that threatens Hamilton.
Government regulators are slowing the flow out of Lake Ontario to help flooded downstream cities — but rising water levels may soon affect Hamilton residents, too.
April 27th, 2019 by Matthew Van Dongen The Hamilton Spectator


Lake Ontario water levels are rising quickly enough to threaten flooding in Hamilton as early as next week — even without a wind storm, government regulators warn.

Water levels are high in the Great Lakes this spring — but particularly near Montreal and along the Ottawa River, where states of emergency due to flooding have been declared in several communities.

Right now, Lake Ontario levels are not high enough to cause flooding in Hamilton without help from north-east winds that occasionally and infamously whip up damaging waves along the shoreline.






But that is about to change thanks to a "perfect storm" of forecasted wet weather and downstream flood crises that have forced regulators to slow the flow of water out of Lake Ontario to protect swamped cities.

"We do anticipate (Lake Ontario) flooding issues in the very near future," said Rob Caldwell, the Canadian secretary of the International Lake Ontario — St. Lawrence River Board.

"Basically, we're about four inches away from people starting to see flooding even without a wind storm. If the forecasts are right, we could see levels rise to that general flood stage next week."

Two years ago, record high Lake Ontario levels — almost 76 metres above sea level — swamped streets and basements in the low-lying Hamilton beach strip, swallowed beaches and even pushed surprised fish into the sewers.

The board's six-month forecast suggests we could get close to that level again if wet weather persists through spring. But the immediate risk comes if Lake Ontario hits 75.37 metres next week as predicted.

At that level, Caldwell said more nearshore dwellers would be expected to report flooding even in calm conditions. "Obviously, if you have sustained winds from the wrong direction, that will exacerbate the damage," he said.

So far, the city is not getting any lake-related flooding calls, said water director Andrew Grice. (By comparison, many beach strip homeowners complained of swamped basements in soggy 2017.)

But the city is sending crews to clean storm sewer grates along the strip and other flood-prone areas just in case.

The Hamilton Conservation Authority has issued a "water safety statement" warning of swollen creeks, but has not ramped up to a flood watch or warning.

Watershed planning director Scott Peck said that might change if north-east winds whip up wave-related shoreline threats. "But lately, we've been lucky with prevailing westerly winds that do not pose much of a risk for us," he said.

Caldwell said the amount of spring rain in the Lake Ontario basin will be a "big wild card" in determining the flooding future for the Hamilton area. But local residents can also feel the impact of high water as far away as the Ottawa River because it dumps into the St. Lawrence Seaway near Montreal.

That means for now, federal regulators are using a dam at Cornwall to "slow the tap" out of Lake Ontario to try to curb flooding near Montreal. "We have to try to balance the impacts as fairly as we can," Caldwell said.



mvandongen@thespec.com

905-526-3241 | @Mattatthespec


https://www.thespec.com/news-story/...e-rising-here-s-why-that-threatens-hamilton-/
 
Likes: Opie

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
Monday April 29th, the average level is at 75.41 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the April lake level average has been 74.94 M
The average lake level for April 2017 was 75.35 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 38 F

Next reading date is: Friday May 3rd, 2019

Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Apr 12 – 75.10
Mar 29 – 75.018
Mar 15 – 75.0
Mar 08 – 74.97
Feb 22 – 75.00
Feb 08 – 74.96
Jan 25 – 74.88
Jan 11 – 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Updated forecast for 2019 & Experimental 5 year forecast from the Army Corps of Engineers.

 
Likes: scotto

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
Good morning

News from around the lake

**********************************

Credit Valley Conservation has issued a flood watch for Lake Ontario and is warning people to use ‘extreme caution’ and obey all closure notices for trails and pathways, as rivers and streams that discharge directly into Lake Ontario may be impacted by backwater from the lake.
As lake levels increase, certain areas may be cut off or isolated.
The flood watch was issued Wednesday, May 1 after Lake Ontario water elevation was at 75.41 metres above International Great Lakes Datum — a reference system. On Wednesday, the lake elevation was near 75.46 metres, said the conservation authority

See below for more of news item
https://www.mississauga.com/news-story/9334254-people-should-use-extreme-caution-as-flood-watch-issued-for-lake-ontario/

and

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/9335208-sandbags-and-berms-hamilton-fighting-back-against-a-flood-of-carp-/




Friday May 3rd, the average level is at 75.51 M

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2008, the May lake level average has been 75.10 M
The average lake level for May 2017 was 75.80 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 38 F

Next reading date is: Friday May 17th, 2019

Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Apr 29 – 75.41
Apr 12 – 75.10
Mar 29 – 75.018
Mar 15 – 75.0
Mar 08 – 74.97
Feb 22 – 75.00
Feb 08 – 74.96
Jan 25 – 74.88
Jan 11 – 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

Updated forecast for 2019 & Experimental 5 year forecast from the Army Corps of Engineers.


 
Likes: scotto

scotto

Administrator
Staff member
Feb 15, 2004
6,599
122
63
The Beach Strip
Another picture taken today (May 5th) shows the lake level has moved up about 7" in ten days.
The watermark can still be seen from 2017 which is still another 18' to the crest.
May5.JPG

To compare, this photo of the lake level was taken May 14th, 2017
 
Likes: Opie

Opie

Registered User
Mar 1, 2017
256
73
28
The Beach Strip
Yes the water is still rising, just taking a quick glance at it this morning and we are approx. at the 75.6 M mark.

To make matters worse, the storm that is expected to hit us Wednesday thru Thursday -ending early Friday will be driving wind gusts from the east at 33 knots/60 km per hour. Which will be producing waves 1 1/2 to 2 meters tall. That last storm we had, gave us some damage to the beach, some debris did make it up onto the path between Hutch's and Confederation Park. This time around with the lake being slightly higher and a longer sustained wind from the east will most certainly do damage to the same area and now beyond. Beach Blvd by the weekend as the water table creeps up, will have many homes pumping water out onto the street like in 2017.

Our neighbors south of the border are being very vocal about the high water levels, more so then we are

https://news.wbfo.org/post/collins-blames-ijc-army-corps-predicts-record-high-lake-levels
 
Likes: scotto

scotto

Administrator
Staff member
Feb 15, 2004
6,599
122
63
The Beach Strip
Likes: Opie
Top Bottom