Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

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River board says high Lake Ontario water levels foreseeable as wet conditions persist
Belleville, ON, Canada / Quinte News
David Foot
February 13, 2020 03:59 pm


Lake Ontario is again near record highs for this time of year and the risk of high levels this spring remains elevated. While considerable uncertainty in projections for spring still exists, the International Lake Ontario–St. Lawrence River Board is providing advanced notice so communities can begin planning for a foreseeable Lake Ontario peak of 75.5 m (247.7 feet) or higher in 2020. Please work with your local municipal officials to determine best preparedness and response measures.
The Board continues to deviate from Plan 2014 and maximize outflows as it removes as much water from Lake Ontario as conditions allow to reduce the risk of high water throughout the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system this spring.
All of the other Great Lakes are above record high water levels for this time of year. Despite record outflows in recent weeks, Lake Ontario’s level is only slightly below seasonal record-highs, behind only the levels recorded in mid February during the previous high water years of 1952 and 1973, and at similar levels to those seen at this time in 1978 and 1993. Given the high levels across the Great Lakes basin currently, high waters are a distinct possibility again on Lake Ontario, in the 1000 Islands and along the lower St. Lawrence River in Quebec this spring.
Ice conditions along the St. Lawrence may continue to limit flows over the next few weeks of winter. High outflows will continue to be released to the extent possible in response to the high waters. This action will continue to increase levels in Quebec, and also draw down water levels on Lake St. Lawrence, where extremely low water levels are expected to return. The Board will continue to examine outflow strategies for late spring that may result in further exceptions to the limits for navigation (L Limit) and flooding (F Limit), while weighing the value of these exceptions against the cost of their impacts. All high-outflow strategies that deviate above Plan 2014 flows will depend on future weather events that impact downstream capacity, such as the timing of spring snowmelt and precipitation.
In the meantime, the Board is taking every opportunity to continue to release high outflows to help reduce the risk of high water whenever weather and ice conditions and local inflows to the lower St. Lawrence River permit. This remains a challenging balancing act that the Board’s technical staff are coordinating daily. A total of 28 flow changes proved necessary in January alone. The water level forecasts are adjusted weekly (https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/forecasts) and reflect the probability of continued high water levels on Lake Ontario.
Please note that the Board has recently created a new website page focused on the recent high-water events: https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/2017-and-2019-high-water-events. All high-water related materials are now in one place. This was a recommendation in the Province of Ontario’s Special Advisor’s report on flooding.
Information on hydrologic conditions, water levels and outflows, including graphics and photos, are available on the Board’s website and posted to the Board’s Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/InternationalLakeOntarioStLawrenceRiverBoard (English), and more detailed information is available on its website at https://www.ijc.org/en/loslrb. Please consult your local officials for flood preparedness and response measures.
(PRESS RELEASE FROM INTERNATIONAL LAKE ONTARIO-ST.LAWRENCE RIVER BOARD)

https://www.quintenews.com/2020/02/...levels-foreseeable-as-wet-conditions-persist/
 
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scotto

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Record Outflows Continue Through February; Maximized outflows in March
Date
February 26, 2020
The International Lake Ontario–St. Lawrence River Board agreed on February 21 to continue deviating from Plan 2014 and maximize outflows through the spring.
As was the case in January, outflow for the month of February is expected to set a new record. Without the record outflows employed since the beginning of the year, water levels would be even higher than they are currently.
Because the risk of a high water event on Lake Ontario remains elevated, the Board agreed to continue maximizing flows through March 31. The Seaways Corporations have announced the date of April 1 for the opening of the 2020 navigation season for the Montreal to Lake Ontario section of the seaway. The April 1 opening allows for outflows to continue in excess of prescribed safe limits for navigation through the end of March.
The Board’s outflow strategy for April will be determined at a later date based on conditions upstream and downstream at the time and in consideration of all interests.
The Board also considered ice conditions in the St. Lawrence River, and the effects of high outflows on lower St. Lawrence River water levels in order to continue maximizing outflows from Lake Ontario as much as possible.
Ice cover on the St. Lawrence River has been below normal throughout the winter, and mild weather over the past several weeks continued to provide favorable conditions to release exceptionally high outflows from Lake Ontario.
Nonetheless, with high levels of Lake Ontario and the upper Great Lakes continuing, the risk of high water this spring remains elevated. Therefore, the Board will continue releasing high outflows in the coming weeks by maximizing outflows up to the higher tiers of the Plan’s limit intended to balance upstream and downstream high water impacts known as the F Limit.
Based on past experience and information, the Board assessed that there will be a low risk of impacts along Lake St. Louis when the lowest level of the F Limit at 22.10 m (72.5 ft) is passed. The Board agreed to surpass the lowest tier of the F Limit without reducing Lake Ontario outflows, in an effort to remove additional water from Lake Ontario this winter and spring. The second tier of the F Limit, which limits outflows when Lake St. Louis reaches 22.20 m (72.8 ft) while Lake Ontario levels are below 75.37 m (247.28 ft), will still be maintained.
Residents along the St. Lawrence River should be aware that water levels could fluctuate significantly over the coming weeks.
These deviation strategies will help remove a small amount of additional water from Lake Ontario in the coming weeks. Given the current record high water levels for this time of year on the other Great Lakes, these actions will help reduce the risk of levels on Lake Ontario exceeding 75.50 m (247.7 ft) in 2020.
Please note that the Board has recently created a new website page focused on the recent high-water events: https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/2017-and-2019-high-water-events. All high-water related materials are now in one place.
Information on hydrologic conditions, water levels and outflows, including graphics and photos, are available on the Board’s website and posted to the Board’s Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/InternationalLakeOntarioStLawrenceRiverBoard (English), and more detailed information is available on its website at https://www.ijc.org/en/loslrb. Please consult your local officials for flood preparedness and response measures.

Contacts:
Rob Caldwell: (613) 938-5864 Rob.Caldwell@canada.ca
Susie Blair: (716) 879-4410 susan.a.blair@usace.army.mil
 
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Mark Daul: Is Lake Ontario a beauty or beast?
Sat, Feb 22nd 2020 07:00 am


One of Lake Ontario's gorgeous sunsets. (Photo by Terry Duffy)
By Mark Daul
Outdoors in Niagara

My column today is not going to tell you about nor make you cry about the high water levels along the south shore of Lake Ontario.
The Army Corps of Engineers and the International Joint Commission (IJC) thought it best for everyone back in 1958 to make Lake Ontario a reservoir for future water levels, and to make the shipping industry that was growing by leaps and bounds, better. There was also an eyeball on hydroelectricity in earlier years that would be available for that expanding industry from back in the early 1900s. So the IJC and Army Corps put their educated heads together and developed Plan 1958. Then there was Plan 1958-D incorporated in 1963.
It seemed like every shore owner was happy. New homes went up, cottages rebuilt into permanent homes, recreational boating grew, and people were happy the greatest of the Great Lakes had a new happy future and direction.
Yes it was.
After tinkering with the water levels in the 1960s, it was soon found out why we shouldn’t tinker with Mother Nature and leave her alone. Water levels were made to fluctuate, then there was too much water, then there wasn’t enough to make the shipping industry happy but always just enough to make electricity at the Robert Moses Power Dam in the lower river of the seaway.
So, the Canadian and U.S. governments put their heads together once again and decided IJC and Army Corps did such a fine job with Plan 1958-D, that they should spend another $20 million to study some other plan. The $30 million plan didn’t work.
Now we have Plan 2014, and the higher water levels are destroying what our grandfathers and fathers built earlier so they and everyone in the future could enjoy the grandeur of Lake Ontario.
According to newspaper reports, Plan 2014 is the sixth proposal for new regulatory guidelines the IJC has advanced since the 1990s. Most people don’t realize it, but each of these “brain flashes” puts us at greater risk than before. Lakeshore residents could enjoy Lake Ontario today, if the tinkering by those responsible didn’t wreck their shoreline or what they have left.
I know for a fact, the property I live on, about 75 feet of it is somewhere in the lake. I have a cliff and a railing so no one gets hurt and we all can look out into the lake to see the shipping industry at work, recreational boaters, the Toronto skyline, and so much more.
As my readers know, I am one of those “riparians” that live on the south edge of Lake Ontario. I just told you a little about the “beast” in Lake Ontario, now I’ll tell you about today’s “beauty.”
Lake Ontario, just like Lake Erie, can be your greatest friend if the lakes want to be. When I get up in the morning, the first thing I do is take a peek out into the lake to see how it is greeting me today. I see what the temperature is by looking at the big, 15-inch thermometer with the background picture of two deer, then look to see how far out the mud line is (that tells me how rough the water is, and how rough it was through the night).
To explain, the mud line will sometimes extend from shore to out as far as you can see, or anywhere in between. It is caused by the mud and clay being washed away from the shore banks from the high water levels and the wind.
For the most part, it is beautiful. Seagulls are out, screeching at one another while searching for food; the geese are gathered silently paddling in a group along the shoreline; occasionally, the neighborhood Great American Eagle will fly by looking for a good meal for itself, and its mate is building a nest for the new expectant children somewhere close by.
There is more – a family of white swans that has taken up residence in Four Mile Creek 100 yards east. They like to be out in the lake exploring and like the geese, and they will have a family of little ones learning their way around the shallow waters soon. Some mornings there will be ducks galore, but none this day. If I don’t forget to keep my bird feeder full, it will be full of blue jays, red-winged blackbirds, sometimes chick-a-dees, sometimes a whole menagerie of feathered friends, and doves on the ground.
The early morning sun will be bouncing off the water coming up from the east, glaring off the glass-like water, and the wind is either calm or a slight breeze will be in the air.
Now that is a beautiful picture, but it doesn’t always last. That lake can turn on you as fast as you can say “Jack Sprat.” The breeze will grow from the north, the east or west while you’re putting your shoes and socks on; and if you step outside, watch out that the wind doesn’t blow you and your shoes into the lake. That can come pretty fast, but when the wind comes a’ blowing, hang on. You will see the water level rise, depending on the severity of the storm, as high as 4 feet. That is a true statement. Four feet! The higher-up, educated, engineers can attest to that.
But let’s keep talking about the beauty of the lake here. The gorgeous sunsets are enough to inspire any artist or photographer and untrained eyes with delight. Or catch a half or full moon at night shining across that mass of glass-like water.
All of this can be seen and appreciated now. When spring starts popping, look for the migrating birds to come back home for the summer, the fish to start spawning and jumping up out of the lake to catch bugs that fly too close to the water, the thousands and thousands of cliff swallows making their nests in the fine sand veins of the high banks; and then you’ll see those fast, feathered Kingfishers laying in the rocks or on a tree limb just waiting for a chance to raid one of those unguarded swallow nests in that bank of fine sand.
Even though the raccoons and chipmunks are out roaming around yards all winter, they become more abundant when they start having their offspring when the weather gets just right for them. Skunks and other rodents will do the same thing, just like the bears in the woods.
Spring and summer are the days that I live for on the lake. There is so much going on, not only pertaining to the lake but to all wildlife in general. I don’t mean it’s just the lake, but in your own backyards and surrounding areas. You need to go outside and look for the blooming flowers and plants you might have planted last spring. Look for signs of the nighttime critters that pass through your yard at night – you will be surprised at what goes on that you don’t even know about if you don’t look.
Even though there was a lot of property on the south shore (the north shore, too), lost through the years because of drastic errors made on lake water levels and such, no one will be forgiven. I’d be willing to bet every nickel I have that most all of those decision makers from the 1950s through to the ’90s have all retired, or heaven forbid, passed away, so we all need to make with the best of we have left today.
Be sure you keep your new year’s resolutions, and take that kid or elderly person fishing (and don’t forget your camera). Email me at: markdaul@gmail.com.
Categories: ~ NFP ~ Sentinel ~ Sentinel HP Feature List ~
https://www.wnypapers.com/news/arti...2/mark-daul-is-lake-ontario-a-beauty-or-beast



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We will have to keep a close eye on the levels this year as they are expected to be slightly higher than last year's record highs, attached is the month of February's levels and the levels had a slight decrease as compared to last month. The blue line represents the high level from last year which is 76 meters above sea level.


February2020.jpg
 

scotto

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News Push to get water out of Lake Ontario may extend into April


The International Joint Commission controls the flow of water through dams in Massena. (Source: WWNY)

By Scott Atkinson | February 27, 2020 at 5:24 PM EST - Updated February 27 at 10:13 PM
WATERTOWN, N.Y. (WWNY) - The push to get as much water as possible out of Lake Ontario may extend to mid-April and affect shipping on the St. Lawrence Seaway.
In a statement late Thursday, the International Joint Commission (IJC) - which regulates water levels on Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River - notes that if water levels on the lake require “extraordinary action" to lower them, they’ll “maximize outflows from Lake Ontario over the period April 1 to April 15.”
Right now, the Seaway is scheduled to open April 1.
The statement from the International Joint Commission is very cautiously worded; it never mentions delaying the shipping season past April 1. But it does note that if it continues to release the maximum amount of water until April 15, “all interested parties would be provided with advance notice of any outflow increases that might create unsafe conditions for commercial navigation."

The IJC says the odds of having to extend into April are “currently relatively low but will be better known closer to the end of March.”
A group representing shippers on the Seaway, the Chamber of Marine Commerce, has said that each week of delay in shipping will cost up to $193 million.
Right now, Lake Ontario is about a foot and a half higher than normal for this time of year, and record amounts of water are being pushed out through the Moses-Saunders Dam in Massena. The plan of the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board (that’s the group which actually carries out the decisions of the International Joint Commission, and which also has a say in how much water is to be released) is to push out the maximum amount of water it can through the month of March.

They’re trying to get the level of Lake Ontario down so that it doesn’t flood again, as it did in 2019 and 2017.

That means the Seaway, if it opens April 1, is opening just a little later than it did in 2019, and somewhat later - 12 days - than it usually does.
Full statement of the International Joint Commission
The International Joint Commission (IJC) announced today that it
supports the strategy of its International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board (Board) to set maximum Lake Ontario outflows until March 31, before the start of the navigation season on April 1.
If, at the end of March, Lake Ontario water levels and inflows to the lake indicate the need for extraordinary action, and if conditions in the St. Lawrence River provide an opportunity for increased outflows, the IJC has directed the Board to maximize outflows from Lake Ontario over the period April 1 to April 15. Under such conditions, all interested parties would be provided with advance notice of any outflow increases that might create unsafe conditions for commercial navigation.


The IJC notes that it is working with the governments of Canada and the United States and all interests, including the Seaway, with the intent of releasing as much water as possible from Lake Ontario as conditions allow. IJC Commissioners commend the Seaway corporations for the collaborative efforts that resulted in the maximum outflow strategy through March 31.
The IJC recognizes that the potential Lake Ontario outflow strategy for April 1 to April 15 is designed as a response to unforeseen and exceptional conditions on Lake Ontario that would require extraordinary action. Implementation of the strategy could be affected by such factors as unfavorable ice conditions in the St. Lawrence River or downstream flooding.


https://www.wwnytv.com/2020/02/27/push-get-water-out-lake-ontario-may-extend-into-april/
 

Opie

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Evening Scott,

Glad to see that you are back to work at your command centre !!!

Any chance you could post the March chart for Lake Ontario to see, where we were and now are ?
Thanks
Opie
 

scotto

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Evening Scott,

Glad to see that you are back to work at your command centre !!!

Any chance you could post the March chart for Lake Ontario to see, where we were and now are ?
Thanks
Opie
It is working today;

Below is the Lake Ontario water levels for the month of March 2020. Notice that there wasn't a large increase and we stayed relatively the same for the month, however, we are slightly higher than this time last year. We seen this same level last year around April 12th, which isn't good news.

 

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This notice was sent out to beach area residents;

April 8, 2020

City of Hamilton - Hamilton Water
330 Wentworth Street North
Hamilton, Ontario L8L 5W2
P: 905.546.2489
www.hamilton.ca



Dear Beach Blvd. Area Resident,

Re: High Water Levels - Sanitary Sewer Flooding & Directing Basement Floodwaters

In recent years the levels of Lake Ontario during the Spring and early Summer have set
records. This season we are witnessing higher than normal levels, consistent with this recent
trend.

In preparation for higher than normal Lake Ontario levels, we're writing to request that if you
have a sump pump or are planning to pump basement floodwaters into a basement sink,
drain or laundry tub, that you stop this action.

The full notice is attached below.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
This notice most likely is related to the recent work being done by the City at the top of Granville Ave.
Granville.JPG
 

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scotto

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Water levels update
Belleville, ON, Canada / Quinte News
John Spitters
April 16, 2020 03:06 am


The first major spring storm pushed through the Great Lakes – St. Lawrence River basin this past weekend, bringing high winds and precipitation, raising inflows and accelerating the seasonal rise in water levels.
Strong, southwest winds rapidly increased water levels at the eastern end of Lake Ontario during the storm. The wind, combined with rising inflows from the Ottawa River and other local tributaries, also raised levels in the lower St. Lawrence River, requiring a temporary reduction in the Lake Ontario outflow.
However, Lake Ontario outflows have been increasing again since, and are still well above average for this time of year, as the Board continues to get as much water off the lake as possible, while limiting downstream impacts.
Further increases are also expected, as the Ottawa River has reached a peak and is starting to decline. This is expected to continue over at least the next few days. Additional information can be found here: http://ottawariver.ca/forecast/ottawa-river-at-carillon/
Recent Conditions within the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River system:
  • Plan 2014’s Flood Limit (F-limit) continues to be the limiting factor for Lake Ontario outflows, and not the Navigation Limit (L-limit).
  • Lake Ontario’s lake-wide average level is roughly 75.33 m (247.15 ft) currently, which is now slightly below the level at the same time in 2017, and more than 30 cm (1 ft) below the 1973 record-high.
Future Conditions within the system:
  • Overall Lake Ontario outflows are expected to increase over at least the next few days as Ottawa River flows decline.
  • Lake Ontario outflow remains high currently, despite recent reductions necessary to address lower St. Lawrence River levels, and outflow will continue to be maximized to the extent possible.
  • The weather is expected to remain cooler and dry for several days. There are no significant storm systems for at least the next week.
Read whole article;
https://www.quintenews.com/2020/04/16/water-levels-update/
 
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more news from around the lake

https://www.intelligencer.ca/news/l...istic-as-forecast-projects-lower-water-levels

Mayors optimistic as forecast projects lower water levels

Derek Baldwin
More from Derek Baldwin

Published on: April 29, 2020 | Last Updated: April 29, 2020 1:51 PM EDT


Postmedia Network File Photo Luke Hendry / Luke Hendry/The Intelligencer/QM
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Barring unforeseen freak rain events in coming weeks across the Great Lakes, gatekeepers overseeing Lake Ontario water levels are confident this spring’s freshet will not flood Lake Ontario shorelines as experienced in 2017 and 2019.
While cautiously optimistic, mayors in Belleville and Quinte West nonetheless are remaining on guard with equipment and emergency measures at the ready to help protect residential and business waterfront property owners in the event weather turns and waters rise.
According to projections by the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board, while water levels remain high, the long-term forecast looks promising for lowered lake levels.
The river board manages Plan 2014 which governs outflows in the region as well as the Moses-Saunders Dam at Cornwall where gates have been opened more than usual since early this year to allow more water to flow downstream.
“Water levels throughout the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River system in 2020 are expected to peak well below the record-highs of 2017 and 2019,” said the river board in a statement. “While Lake Ontario’s water level is currently well above average, improving conditions are the result of much more moderate weather and water supply conditions this year, as well as actions taken by the board to increase Lake Ontario outflows and help the system recover faster following extreme water level periods.”
“With the expertise gained from 2017 and 2019, the board and its technical team pushed beyond Plan 2014’s limits to increase outflow limits and downstream water level limits beyond those previously perceived as feasible, resulting in some positive gains this winter and spring – though with plenty of help from Mother Nature too,” the board said.
The board was able to flush more water downstream because “a key factor contributing to lower water levels is that the Ottawa River system has reached a peak earlier than in 2017 and 2019, and its current flow is much lower.”
With less water coming from the Ottawa River, the river board is able to maintain high water outflows without threatening downstream properties and Montreal as well as Great Lakes
freighters navigating their way through the St. Lawrence Seaway locks system.
“These conditions have allowed levels on Lake Ontario to see a much more moderate rise this spring, despite extremely high and sustained inflows from Lake Erie (see Lake Erie tab). All four of the upper Great Lakes are at or above record levels, whereas Lake Ontario is well above average, but still well below record levels,” the board said.
Despite promising conditions, the river board is advising lakefront municipalities to keep their guard up in case weather conditions go south.
“Municipalities and residents along the Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence shoreline should continue to put action plans in place that will build resiliency into the shoreline and prepare for the high and low water events of the future,” the river board said.
Quinte West mayor Jim Harrison, who has been leading the fight in the region to have water regulators increase outflows at Moses-Saunders Dam, said Wednesday he welcomed the projections of lower lake levels but added one can’t be too careful given the unpredictability of Mother Nature.
For nearly a year, Quinte West has been building a stockpile of sandbags and watertubes to be used in emergencies to keep flooding at bay on sensitive shorelines throughout the municipality.
“We’re well below the average rainfall for April, yes, but if we get 60 mm tomorrow, that’s a heck of a lot of rain. If we get wind with that, that accounts for a lot of shoreline damage and inland water puddles,” Harrison told The Intelligencer Wednesday. “I’m hoping we don’t get that much, we need a shower or two.”
The municipality is on stand-by to erect water tubes if needed.
“If weather forecasts indicate they need to be, we will be working to put them out. I think we’re relatively prepared. We have ordered these tubes for some residents but, unfortunately, we haven’t got all our orders,” Harrison said.
“We’ve been working at this since last year so we’re assessing the areas, the [flooding] hotspots so we know where they are,” he said. “I think we’re prepared better than we’ve ever been but when you think you’re prepared, Mother Nature will always test you on your right side and your back.”
In Belleville, Mayor Mitch Panciuk said a great deal of planning has also gone into preparedness in the event of more flooding on the Bay of Quinte as experienced last year when sections of the bayfront were cordoned off for public safety.
He, too, remains
hopeful the city may see a respite from high water in coming months.
“We will have to wait and see. All it takes is a rainfall to get us back into a difficult situation,” the mayor said. “But the city has already taken steps to prepare. We used something called the water wall last year, it worked very well last year. We’re ready to go with them in areas that experienced damage. We did some mitigation this year.”
“I am cautiously optimistic, I think a lot of the hard work that we have done has shown that we have been effective. Now we just have to wait for Mother Nature to continue to help us,” Panciuk said.
“If possible, if we can save Victoria Island this summer, to allow pop-ups to go there,” he said.
 
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“Water levels throughout the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River system in 2020 are expected to peak well below the record-highs of 2017 and 2019,” said the river board in a statement. “While Lake Ontario’s water level is currently well above average, improving conditions are the result of much more moderate weather and water supply conditions this year, as well as actions taken by the board to increase Lake Ontario outflows and help the system recover faster following extreme water level periods.”
“With the expertise gained from 2017 and 2019, the board and its technical team pushed beyond Plan 2014’s limits to increase outflow limits and downstream water level limits beyond those previously perceived as feasible, resulting in some positive gains this winter and spring – though with plenty of help from Mother Nature too,” the board said.
The board was able to flush more water downstream because “a key factor contributing to lower water levels is that the Ottawa River system has reached a peak earlier than in 2017 and 2019, and its current flow is much lower.”
Some good news for a change, the monthly water level for Lake Ontario shows a minor increase. We are close to last year's level, but in the first week of May 2019, we seen a steep increase.


April 2020
 

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More news;
IJC’s International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board announces that current conditions are stabilizing and expected to improve across Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence system FacebookTwitter
Date
April 28, 2020
Water levels throughout the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River system in 2020 are expected to peak well below the record-highs of 2017 and 2019, according to the latest projections from the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board. While Lake Ontario’s water level is currently well above average, improving conditions are the result of much more moderate weather and water supply conditions this year, as well as actions taken by the Board to increase Lake Ontario outflows and help the system recover faster following extreme water level periods.
With the expertise gained from 2017 and 2019, the Board and its technical team pushed beyond Plan 2014’s limits to increase outflow limits and downstream water level limits beyond those previously perceived as feasible, resulting in some positive gains this winter and spring - though with plenty of help from Mother Nature too. It’s worth reiterating that no regulation plan can be designed to address every imaginable and sustained extreme weather event and provide total protection for all water uses throughout the system at all times. While the Board is encouraged by current and projected water levels, the Board can’t predict what the weather will bring and encourage shoreline communities to not let their guards down.
Improving conditions can be seen on the International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board web page, and are outlined below: https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/flows. A key factor contributing to lower water levels is that the Ottawa River system has reached a peak earlier than in 2017 and 2019, and its current flow is much lower, as seen in the interactive graphic on the Ottawa River tab.
The Board has been able to continue increasing Lake Ontario outflows (see Lake Ontario tab), in part, because the Ottawa River has been declining and conditions downstream can now handle additional flow.
These conditions have allowed levels on Lake Ontario to see a much more moderate rise this spring, despite extremely high and sustained inflows from Lake Erie (see Lake Erie tab). All four of the upper Great Lakes are at or above record levels, whereas Lake Ontario is well above average, but still well below record levels.
The Board constantly reviews the outflow regulation strategy in conjunction with real time prevailing conditions to make use of every opportunity to remove as much water as possible from Lake Ontario without causing undue impacts upstream and downstream of the Moses-Saunders Power Dam. In 2019-2020, these efforts were augmented through the deviation authority granted by the International Joint Commission. The Board used that deviation authority to make use of all windows of opportunity provided by actual regional weather and system conditions, which Plan 2014 rules (or any outflow regulation plan) could not take into account.
Looking Back
https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/04/23/inondations-les-images-captees-par-lhelicoptere-tva-nouvelles
On April 23 of last year, the Ottawa River freshet had only recently begun. Flooding in the St. Lawrence River below Montreal was severe, as this aerial video shows. Despite a reduction in the Lake Ontario outflow ten days earlier, as the flow from the Ottawa River rapidly increased, the volume of water reaching downstream flooded overland, stranding houses and forcing the evacuation of 3,000 homes. The level of Lake Ontario, starting below where it is this year, went up 16 cm (6 in) over this 10-day period, as reduced outflows combined with rapidly rising inflows from Lake Erie, precipitation and runoff following a series of heavy storms. The Ottawa River in 2019 peaked even later, on May 1, leaving this area around Lake St. Peter flooded for several weeks. Lake Ontario continued rising through May, not reaching its peak until June.
Looking Forward
As the Lake Ontario outflow continues to increase as the Ottawa River flow decreases, navigation will become the limiting factor for the system. In previous years, the Lake Ontario summer outflow reached 10,400 cms (367,000 cfs), but with Lake Ontario water levels expected to be lower this year, it is unlikely that this outflow will be achieved in 2020. With water levels lower, there is less capacity in the channel to move water without an increase in velocity that would impact navigation, recreation, and cause additional shoreline erosion.
Municipalities and residents along the Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence shoreline should continue to put action plans in place that will build resiliency into the shoreline and prepare for the high and low water events of the future.
Please note that the Board has created a website page focused on the recent high-water events: https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/q&a (English) [https://www.ijc.org/fr/clofsl/questions (French)]. All high-water related materials are now in one easily accessible place.
Information on hydrologic conditions, water levels and outflows, including graphics and photos, are available on the Board’s website and posted to the Board’s Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/InternationalLakeOntarioStLawrenceRiverBoard (English), and more detailed information is available on its website at https://www.ijc.org/en/loslrb.
https://www.ijc.org/en/loslrb/ijcs-...VIgN_wvWK-nXvlkCTJS020NSLfhKktaKMKgOZ7AsNlH-Y
 

scotto

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Another picture taken today (May 5th) shows the lake level has moved up about 7" in ten days.
The watermark can still be seen from 2017 which is still another 18' to the crest. View attachment 3384
To compare, this photo of the lake level was taken May 14th, 2017
I am attaching a photo of our canal water level meter (the ladder) showing today's level compared to last year. The above photo's shown2019's large increase in lake level from May 5th to the 14th, we are somewhat below those levels, which is very good news.

May03.JPG
 
Likes: Opie

scotto

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https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/lake-ontario-water-levels-declining-board-adjusts-outflow-strategy

With Lake Ontario water levels declining, Board adjusts outflow strategy

May 29, 2020
Lake Ontario levels peaked early this year at 75.40 m (247.38 ft.) on 5 May, 10 cm (4 inches) below the general flood stage and over a half meter (20 inches) lower than the peak in 2019. Lake levels are expected to continue their seasonal decline through summer, and have fallen 6 cm (2 in.) from the crest to date.
Lower Lake Ontario levels and the continuing high outflows are causing increased currents in the upper St. Lawrence River and also extremely low levels on Lake St. Lawrence, the forebay just upstream of the Moses-Saunders Power Dam. The International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board has assessed the situation carefully and, if necessary, will act to augment low levels at this location over the coming weeks.
The Board’s extended general deviation authority (as granted by the International Joint Commission (IJC) on 9 October 2019) has ended. The Board is no longer deviating by releasing outflows above Plan 2014 prescribed flows, since Lake Ontario reached its peak and began its seasonal decline. The peak level of Lake Ontario is still well above average, but was reduced by 18 cm (7 in.) owing to deviations from Plan 2014. These deviation totals accumulated over the past several months as the Board attempted to remove as much water as possible from Lake Ontario, prior to spring.
Drier conditions have prevailed in recent weeks, including around Lake Ontario and in the Ottawa and lower St. Lawrence River basins. These are the primary reasons for the recent decline in Lake Ontario levels, which has occurred despite very high inflows from the extremely high upper Great Lakes. These high inflows will continue for the foreseeable future and, in response, Plan 2014 will continue to prescribe very high outflows, which will enhance Lake Ontario’s seasonal decline.
However, the lower and declining levels on Lake Ontario combined with the high outflows through the Moses-Saunders Power Dam that will continue are resulting in very low levels on Lake St. Lawrence that are anticipated to persist for months to come. This will be the fourth straight summer of well-below-average levels of Lake St. Lawrence, which responds much more rapidly and significantly to increases in outflows than the much larger Lake Ontario upstream. Had the Board not deviated and removed water from Lake Ontario since last spring, Lake St. Lawrence would currently be approximately 14 cm (6 in.) higher.
On a 22 May teleconference, the Board agreed to tap into the accumulated water removed from Lake Ontario, if needed, to maintain levels on Lake St. Lawrence above 73.0 m or 239.50 ft (40 cm or 16 inches above the usual navigation-season low limit) until after the 7 September long weekend. As the Board returns to plan flows, Lake St. Lawrence is expected to remain above this threshold for several weeks unless winds cause it to temporarily fall below.
Note that maintaining Lake St. Lawrence levels above 73.0 m (239.5 ft) under actual conditions wetter than normal will require no flow reductions which might cause higher Lake Ontario levels. Wet conditions would cause higher Lake Ontario levels, which would result in Lake St. Lawrence levels above 73.0 m, even with high outflows. Maintaining Lake St. Lawrence levels would also have no impact on levels heading into 2021 under such wet conditions and the Board emphasizes that lake level and other conditions at the end of 2020 are poor indicators of what levels will be like in 2021. The primary factors are what Lake Erie inflows and Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River basin snowmelt, runoff and precipitation conditions are experienced next spring.
Augmenting Lake St. Lawrence levels may occur if very dry conditions result in lower Lake Ontario levels. At most, this would result in Lake Ontario levels up to 8 cm (3.2 in.) higher by 7 September than what they would be without this strategy, but only under the very driest water supply scenarios where Lake Ontario is much lower on its own. Most scenarios result in much smaller differences. Differences will be further reduced through the fall, such that, by the end of 2020, there is expected to be almost no difference in levels throughout the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River System.
Shoreline businesses and property owners are reminded that the GLAM Committee continues to host an online questionnaire to allow for direct reporting on impacts related to recent high water conditions that can be incorporated into the expedited review effort. The 2020 version of the questionnaire is now available on the GLAM Committee's website: https://ijc.org/glam/questionnaire
Information on hydrologic conditions, water levels and outflows, including graphics and photos, are available on the Board’s website and posted to the Board’s Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/InternationalLakeOntarioStLawrenceRiverBoard (English), and more detailed information is available on its website at https://www.ijc.org/en/loslrb.
Contacts:
Rob Caldwell: (613) 938-5864 Rob.Caldwell@canada.ca
Andrew Kornacki: (716) 879-4349 andrew.a.kornacki@usace.army.mil
 

scotto

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Lets compare this month of May to last year as this was supposed to be another record breaking year for high water levels on Lake Ontario.

Today is the last day of May and below is the tidal observations for this month.
Notice that there is very little change for the whole month, we basically finished where we started.



This is last year (2019) during the month of May, notice the sharp increase in lake level.



Looking at last year's levels, we had a sharp increase in May, then steady in June then a slow decrease in July. If the same changes occur this year, then we will have very little in the way of flooding as we did in past years.
 

scotto

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Watching CH11 TV news last night, they commented that the peak for the Lake Ontario water level took place back on May 5th, so yes we are going in the right direction. The only difference from past years is that the upper lakes are far above the normal lake levels, all that water still has to exit through lake Ontario.
 

scotto

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With Lake Ontario levels declining, board adjusts outflow strategy
https://westsidenewsny.com/news/202...els-declining-board-adjusts-outflow-strategy/

Lake Ontario levels peaked early this year at 247.38 feet on May 5, four inches below the general flood stage, and over 20 inches lower than the peak in 2019. Lake levels are expected to continue their seasonal decline through summer and had fallen two inches from the crest through May 29.

Lower Lake Ontario levels and the continuing high outflows are causing increased currents in the upper St. Lawrence River and also extremely low levels on Lake St. Lawrence, the forebay just upstream of the Moses-Saunders Power Dam. The International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board has assessed the situation carefully and, if necessary, will act to augment low levels at this location over the coming weeks.

The board’s extended general deviation authority (as granted by the International Joint Commission (IJC) on October 9, 2019) has ended. The board is no longer deviating by releasing outflows above Plan 2014 prescribed flows since Lake Ontario reached its peak and began its seasonal decline. The peak level of Lake Ontario is still well above average but was reduced by seven inches owing to deviations from Plan 2014. These deviation totals accumulated over the past several months as the board attempted to remove as much water as possible from Lake Ontario, before spring.

Drier conditions have prevailed in recent weeks, including around Lake Ontario and in the Ottawa and lower St. Lawrence River basins. These are the primary reasons for the recent decline in Lake Ontario levels, which has occurred despite very high inflows from the extremely high upper Great Lakes. These high inflows will continue for the foreseeable future, and, in response, Plan 2014 will continue to prescribe very high outflows, which will enhance Lake Ontario’s seasonal decline.

However, the lower and declining levels on Lake Ontario combined with the high outflows through the Moses-Saunders Power Dam that will continue are resulting in very low levels on Lake St. Lawrence that are anticipated to persist for months to come. This will be the fourth straight summer of well-below-average levels of Lake St. Lawrence, which responds much more rapidly and significantly to increases in outflows than the much larger Lake Ontario upstream. Had the board not deviated and removed water from Lake Ontario since last spring, Lake St. Lawrence would currently be approximately six inches higher.

On a May 22 teleconference, the board agreed to tap into the accumulated water removed from Lake Ontario, if needed, to maintain levels on Lake St. Lawrence above 239.50 feet (16 inches above the usual navigation-season low limit) until after the September 7 long weekend. As the board returns to plan flows, Lake St. Lawrence is expected to remain above this threshold for several weeks unless winds cause it to temporarily fall below.

Maintaining Lake St. Lawrence levels above 239.5 feet under actual conditions wetter than normal will require no flow reductions, which might cause higher Lake Ontario levels. This would have no impact on levels heading into 2021 under such wet conditions, and the board emphasizes that lake level and other conditions at the end of 2020 are poor indicators of what levels will be like in 2021. The primary factors are what Lake Erie inflows and Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River basin snowmelt, runoff, and precipitation conditions are experienced next spring.

Augmenting Lake St. Lawrence levels may occur if very dry conditions result in lower Lake Ontario levels. At most, this would result in Lake Ontario levels up to 3.2 inches higher by September 7 than what they would be without this strategy, but only under the very driest water supply scenarios where Lake Ontario is much lower on its own. Most scenarios result in much smaller differences. Differences will be further reduced through the fall, such that, by the end of 2020, there is expected to be almost no difference in levels throughout the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River System.

The GLAM Committee continues to host an online questionnaire to allow shoreline businesses and property owners to directly report on impacts related to recent high water conditions that can be incorporated into the expedited review effort. The 2020 version of the questionnaire is now available at https://ijc.org/glam/questionnaire.

Information on hydrologic conditions, water levels, and outflows, including graphics and photos, are available on the board’s website and posted to the Board’s Facebook page, and more detailed information is available at https://www.ijc.org/en/loslrb.


More;
 
Last edited:

scotto

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Feb 15, 2004
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The Beach Strip
We are still seeing a gradual decline in the water level of Lake Ontario, keep in mind that all the upper lakes are still well above average and have to empty into Lake Ontario.





Our canal meter shows a small drop from last month, hopefully this will continue and keeps us problem free next Spring.

June30th.JPG





The History of Tidal Measurements in Canada

The appointment of Dr. W. Bell Dawson as Engineer-in-Charge of the Tidal Survey in 1893 marked the beginning of a systematic survey of tides and currents in Canadian waters. This would result in a much improved understanding of the characteristics of these tidal phenomena in Canada, and the ability to produce accurate predictions of tidal occurrences.


In the late 19th century the typical self-recording tidal station was equipped with two stilling wells secured to the side of a wharf or crib. The wells were made of planking, and one of the wells served as a float operated recorder, and the other as a sight gauge. A shelter was usually built over the well that housed the recorder but in the winter heat had to be supplied by an oil lamp or small oil stove, which frequently mal-functioned and generally produced smoke and smudge which settled on the clock-work necessitating frequent cleaning and occasional repair. It meant the gauges required constant monitoring, both to fuel the heat source, and to keep the mechanisms cleaned and working. The timing of the clock also had to be regulated once a week by telegraphic exchange. Permanent gauging stations also required visiting on a regular basis and spirit levels run to benchmarks yearly.
Read whole report;
https://waterlevels.gc.ca/eng/info/history
 
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