Plan 2014 (High Lake Levels)

scotto

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“If we don’t empty the glass and get it back down to where it should be, it means next spring we will be in for it worse than this year,”
This is exactly what worries me, after some strong lowering of lake levels last month, we have had very movement in the last two weeks, checking the canal water meter, we are finally just at the third step on the ladder. If you check back to a post from August 9th of last year, we were hitting the fourth ladder which is another 12 inches and the post from August 11th of this year shows the us just below the second step, a difference of around 22'.
Sept11.JPG


 
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Opie

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Scott you are not the only one worried and its troublesome that the IJC is not being aggressive in lowering the lake level now when we have the opportunity. Tired also of them defending Plan 2014 over the old plan, how the new plan allows for the IJC to make more drastic changes to the lake levels. Hold on here regardless of old or new plan, you are in charge of managing the lake level and if we enter into an emergency situation and your Plan prevents you from putting us onto a safe path quickly ( not in 4 years ). Then you break from the plan and do whatever is needed to seek this safe passage, failure to do so and you continue to put us into harm’s way then expect to be replaced. Allowing greater powers to adjust course so safe ground is made

News from around the lake

https://www.intelligencer.ca/news/national/mayor-wants-plan-for-2020-flooding
Mayor wants plan to address 2020 flooding

Luke Hendry
More from Luke Hendry

Published on: September 9, 2019 | Last Updated: September 10, 2019 4:31 PM EDT

Mayor Mitch Panciuk takes part in a council meeting Monday. At left is Coun. Sean Kelly. Luke Hendry/The Intelligencer
Belleville’s mayor has asked city staff to report on flood preparations for a 2020 flood season which could see Lake Ontario’s level rise beyond the record set this year.
“We need to take a hard look at what preparations we have to make for 2020,” Mitch Panciuk told council.
“I am very concerned,”he said, explaining he has read reports from scientists and other mayors predicting the lake’s 2020 level could be 15 cm to 30 cm (one foot) above that of this summer.
“Without overstating it, it’s going to be catastrophic for some communities,” he later told reporters.
Panciuk said another 30 cm of water would submerge South Front Street’s Victoria Park.
“Another foot of water puts tremendous strain on our resources, some of our facilities, etc.
He acknowledged properties in Belleville in 2019 sustained relatively little flood damage but it’s prudent to be ready should the level rise further.
“Where does it stop? What about 2021?” Panciuk added Wednesday.
“We built up the wall at the wastewater treatment facility last year, but what we did last year we do not believe will sustain another foot of water.”
The mayor said regulation of the lake’s level must change.
“What makes me so angry about this is this is fully a man-made issue and it has to do with the management of the International Joint Commission,” Panciuk said.
Council had earlier called upon the commission to abandon its current management plan, known as Plan 2014, in favour of a 1958 model.
The commission in 2016 established the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board to ensure the outflow of water from the lake matches Plan 2014.
That board reported in August Lake Ontario’s level remained at a record high despite declining about 29 cm since June 13, when outflows were increased, the board reported in an August news release.
But the release added Lake Erie’s level was also at a record high, sending water into Lake Ontario at a record rate.
Lake Ontario had begun dropping by about one centimetre per day starting Aug. 2. The latest rate wasn’t immediately available Monday evening.
“The board is acutely aware and concerned for the welfare of the many affected shoreline property and business owners, as well as the shoreline environmental damage and other impacts of the continuing high water levels,” the release continued.
It noted the current regulation of the lake’s level deviated from Plan 2014 “with the specific intention of maximizing the rate of relief that lower water levels will provide to those affected.”
Panciuk asked city chief administrative officer Rod Bovay to lead a discussion during the city’s next capital budget talks to determine the city’s need for flood response.
In the meantime, those affected by Lake Ontario’s levels may fill out the commission’s online survey at tinyurl.com/ijc19.
 
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scotto

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Lake outflows to be temporarily reduced; shoreline property owners asked to document 2019 experience
By Admin on September 16, 2019


The International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board (ILOSLRB) will temporarily reduce Lake Ontario outflows and increase water levels on Lake St. Lawrence by approximately 25.6 inches to allow marinas and shoreline property owners with docks a one-time opportunity to access their boats to haul-out for the season.
There are approximately 700 marina and boat club slips around Lake St. Lawrence and hundreds of private docks that are impacted. Without raising water levels here, many boats would be left on the bed of Lake St. Lawrence and vulnerable to significant damage from winter conditions.
A 35,300 cubic feet per second outflow reduction is scheduled for all day on October 12 and 13 for a 48-hour period. This is equivalent to 0.4 in of water that would otherwise be released from Lake Ontario during this time, and this additional amount will be removed over the fall months as conditions allow to ensure the net impact on Lake Ontario water levels will be zero.
The board also feels that is critically important that memories of these high water impacts are documented and summarized so that as time goes, they will not be forgotten. To support such a summary, the IJC’s Great Lakes – St. Lawrence River Adaptive Management (GLAM) Committee, a subcommittee supporting the ILOSLRB, is seeking first-hand observations and experiences from all who would volunteer to tell their story related to high water impacts in 2019.
A questionnaire has been developed that allows impacted shoreline property owners to report directly on their experiences in 2019. The questionnaire includes opportunities to describe the types and extent of their high water impacts, as well as upload photos to illustrate those impacts. Responses will be summarized by the GLAM Committee as part of its reporting to the ILOSLRB and the IJC and will also be used to improve models that are used to assess potential impacts under a range of water level conditions. Further information, including a link to the questionnaire itself, is available on the GLAM Committee website https://ijc.org/en/glam/watershed/questionnaire/high-water-levels-2019. Property owners are encouraged to complete the questionnaire as soon as the extent of their high water impacts are available.

https://www.westsidenewsny.com/news...rty-owners-asked-to-document-2019-experience/
 

scotto

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And just in case you didn't know where Lake St. Lawrence was located;

Lake St. Lawrence


Lake St. Lawrence is the forebay of the Moses-Saunders Power Dam. It is located in the International Section of the St. Lawrence River shared by Canada and the United States. This river acts as the hydraulic outlet of Lake Ontario.
In conjunction with the construction of the Saint Lawrence Seaway Project that started in 1954, the Moses-Saunders Power Project was also built. A navigable channel through the Long Sault rapids needed to be created, along with dams, locks and other control structures. This included the Moses-Saunders Power Dam constructed near Cornwall, Ontario and Massena, New York. When construction of these structures was completed, inundation began on July 1, 1958 and resulted in the formation of an artificial widening and deepening in the river which was named Lake St. Lawrence. Inundation of the river caused a dozen villages in Ontario, now collectively known as "The Lost Villages", to be flooded. There was also inundation on the New York side, but no communities were as widely impacted[7].
Lake St. Lawrence extends upstream from Moses-Saunders Power Dam southwest approximately 46 km to the village of Iroquois, Ontario. The lake’s width is up to 7 km with a surface area of 259 km2 [1].

Figure 1: Map of Lake St. Lawrence. Source: Environment & Climate Change Canada
The most notable use of the lake is as the forebay to the Moses-Saunders Power Dam. Outflows through this power dam are regulated by the International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Board (ILO-SLRB or Board) and can vary widely depending on water supply conditions and the water levels of Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. With the forebay located immediately upstream of the dam, Lake St. Lawrence can be subject to a wide range of water-level fluctuations.

Figure 2: The Moses-Saunders hydropower dam. Source: NYPA
Recreational boating is popular on the lake among local residents and visitors to the area, and it is home to the Stormont Yacht Club and several marinas. There are also several notable campsites and beaches along its banks. Fishing is an especially popular activity. The lake is frequented by waterfowl and wading birds, especially during migration seasons.
Read full article;
https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/lake-st-lawrence
 
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Opie

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Good morning
Here is some news from around the lake and the lake level update.


Came across this one article earlier in the week and in it a remark caught my attention – So far, Canadians have been reluctant to make any revisions to Plan 2014.”


https://auburnpub.com/blogs/eye_on_ny/fema-chief-joins-rep-john-katko-for-lake-ontario-flooding/article_ac20ee34-bce2-5551-bb87-4656b8cbc746.html
FEMA chief joins Rep. John Katko for Lake Ontario flooding forum, surveys damage


  • Sep 17, 2019 Updated 9 hrs ago
Robert Harding, The Citizen

LYONS — Peter Gaynor, the acting administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, visited upstate New York Monday to survey Lake Ontario flood damage and discuss short-term and long-term solutions to help communities affected by record water levels.
Gaynor was invited by U.S. Rep. John Katko, a member of the House Homeland Security Committee, to attend the roundtable discussion with state and local officials at the Wayne County Public Safety Building. The meeting, which lasted more than an hour, wasn't open to the press or public.
At a press conference following the discussion, Katko said the topics included eligibility for federal funding, pre-disaster mitigation funding, individual assistance for property owners and the insurance market.
Gaynor advised residents along the lake to invest in flood insurance. It's not included with homeowners' insurance, he explained, so they would have to open a separate policy to get that coverage.
"It really is the best defense you can have when faced with flooding," Gaynor said. "One inch of water can equal $25,000 in damage. If you don't have flood insurance, you're at risk."
There has been significant damage to businesses and homes caused by flooding along the lake. There were high water levels in 2017 and repeat flooding this year. In June, Lake Ontario levels eclipsed 249 feet — a new record.
In 2017, President Donald Trump approved a major disaster declaration for eight counties — Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson and St. Lawrence — along Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. New York could request another disaster declaration this year, but the water needed to recede so state and local officials could better assess the damage to seek federal aid.

To receive federal assistance, the state has its damage threshold and the individual counties have separate targets to qualify for the disaster declaration. That was a problem for Cayuga County in 2017 because it was initially excluded from the declaration. The declaration was later amended to include Cayuga County because it was determined that the county met its threshold for federal aid.
Katko reiterated his view that the flooding was caused by Plan 2014, a water management plan adopted by the International Joint Commission in 2016. The commission, which oversees shared boundary waters between the U.S. and Canada, said the flooding was caused by heavy precipitation and inflows from other Great Lakes.
Plan 2014, Katko said, "has been an unmitigated disaster."
"There's no easy answers, but one thing's for sure: I'm absolutely 1,000% convinced that Plan 2014 has got to go," he said.
It will be difficult to amend the plan. The six-member commission consisting of three officials from the U.S. and three from Canada must reach a consensus on any action they take. So far, Canadians have been reluctant to make any revisions to Plan 2014.
Gaynor didn't criticize Plan 2014 — he said he was briefed on it during the meeting — but noted that it would take a "multi-pronged approach" to repeal the plan. He acknowledged, though, that it will take more than abolishing the plan to address the problem.
"Things like disaster mitigation and flood insurance are really the things you need to do all in tandem to resolve this mess," he said.
*****************************************************************************

Friday September 20th, the average level is at 75.28 M (246.98 Feet)

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2009, the September lake level average has been 74.78 M ( 245.34 Feet )
The average lake level for September 2017 was 75.08 M
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 16 C / 62.6 F


Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Sept 06 – 75.386
Aug 23 – 75.51
Aug 16 – 75.585
Aug 09 – 75.65
Aug 02 – 75.72
July 26 – 75.78
July 19 - 75.85
July 11 - 75.89
July 05 - 75.93
June 28 - 75.95
June 21 - 75.95
June 14 – 75.984
June 07 – 75.97
May 30 - 75.94
May 24 - 75.86
May 17 - 75.795
May 03 - 75.51
Apr 29 - 75.41
Apr 12 - 75.10
Mar 29 - 75.018
Mar 15 - 75.0
Mar 08 - 74.97
Feb 22 - 75.00
Feb 08 - 74.96
Jan 25 - 74.88
Jan 11 - 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

And courtesy of the IJC,, their numbers

International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board
The average Lake Ontario outflow is expected to be 9,270 m³/s for the coming week. This flow rate is 200 m³/s above the normal safe navigation flow limit that applies at the current Lake Ontario elevation as defined by the regulation plan. Actual outflows will depend on conditions in the St. Lawrence River.
Week Ending: Average this time
Wed, 18 Sep 2019 of the year (c)
Lake Ontario / Lac Ontario
Actual end of week level: 75.21 (246.75) 74.75 (245.24)
Computed Plan 2014 Level (a): 75.29 (247.01)
Computed Preproject Level (b): 75.87 (248.92)
Weekly Mean Outflow: 9600 (339000) 7550 (266600)
Weekly Total Supply: 7320 (258500) 6380 (225300)
Lake St. Lawrence at Long Sault Dam 72.78 (238.78) 73.21 (240.19)
Weekly Mean Level:
Lake St. Louis at Pointe-Claire Weekly 21.61 (70.90) 21.15 (69.39)
Mean Level:
Montreal Harbour at Jetty #1 Weekly Mean 6.58 (21.59) 6.20 (20.34)
Level:
Ottawa River at Carillon Weekly Mean 780 (27500) 1120 (39600)
Outflow:
Preliminary Lake Ontario Outflow for Week 9270 (327400) 7470 (263800)
Ending Fri, 27 Sep 2019:
Levels are in metres (feet) IGLD 1985. Supply and flows are in cubic metres (feet) per second m³/s (ft³/s).
(a) Levels that would have occurred with strict adherence to Plan 2014.
(b) Levels that would have occurred had there been no Lake Ontario regulation.
(c) For comparison purposes, Lake Ontario water level data since 1918 are used to be consistent with those published in the US and Canadian Great Lakes bulletins (http://www.waterlevels.gc.ca/C&A/bulletin-eng.html). Other averages are for the periods as follows: Lake Ontario outflows and levels at Long Sault and Pointe-Claire since 1960; Montreal since 1967; and Ottawa River outflow at Carillon since 1963.
The regulation plan for Lake Ontario specifies a weekly average outflow from Saturday through the following Friday, inclusive. To provide timely information for the coming week to the hydropower and Seaway operators, and our readers, we complete the regulation plan calculations each Thursday. Our calculations use the data available at the time, which are from the previous seven days (Thursday through Wednesday). Since the two time periods do not exactly coincide, their data are usually slightly different.
The table shows the actual flow for the week ending Wednesday. It also gives the preliminary flow for the coming week ending Friday. We emphasize that this is the preliminary flow, since unforeseen flow changes may occur after we have issued our notice. When these flow changes occur, they are reflected in the subsequent week's notice.
Information in this report is compiled from provisional data provided by: Environment & Climate Change Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Hydro Quebec, Ontario Power Generation Inc, the New York Power Authority, and the U.S. National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration.
Visit the Board's website at https://ijc.org/en/loslrb to find out more.
 
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Opie

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More news from around the lake

More dislike towards the Canadian side of the IJC

http://www.oswegocountynewsnow.com/what-we-have-now-is-not-working-the-ijc-wanted/article_c8dabb40-df95-11e9-bc2d-d38213f52e03.html


'What we have now is not working': The IJC wanted more American voices - Monroe County's Bill Reilich says he's the man for the job
GREECE, N.Y. — Greece Town Supervisor William Reilich, a Republican Party mainstay for decades in Monroe County, has been named to the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board and says he’ll take a sense of urgency to controversial water regulations.
Reilich was appointed to the 12-person International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board (ILOSLRB) by the International Joint Commission (IJC) — a binational body that oversees shared waterways between the U.S. and Canada — as part of the IJC’s mission to diversify board membership. His presence on the board would bring notice to the “human and social impacts,” IJC officials said, after a summer of record flooding on Lake Ontario.
“In the past there's been representation from a variety of entities from the shipping industry, hydro power and environmentalists,” Reilich told The Palladium-Times in a recent interview. “But there had never been a representative on behalf of the municipalities and the home owners along the thousand miles along the shore of the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River. That's the role I'm in now.”
It’s important for Reilich to represent the interests of property owners along the Lake Ontario shoreline “because they are the most affected,” he said, noting there are “a thousand homes” with shoreline in Greece.
“We have one individual from the 2017 flooding who is still not in his home,” Reilich said in reference to the then-historic flooding caused by high water levels in 2017. “We have a tremendous amount of destruction. The waves are very powerful and they bend steel, break up concrete and brick walls.
Like Oswego, Greece’s sewage system was affected, Reilich said, adding the town had utility holes “flying off our sanitary sewer” and “shut down roads” that provided access to businesses — another party affected by the devastation brought on by the water overflows.
While the town supervisor underscored a bevy of different factors that account for flooding, he centered on the shipping industry as a major contributor.
“The shipping industry certainly is a sizable factor in that equation because 30 percent of Canada's commerce comes through the Great Lakes,” Reilich said, noting shipping accounts for “only 10 percent” of American commerce. “The industry wants to extend their active time frame through ice formation — which could be until Jan. 1. As a result, you have to allow for higher water levels in the fall so they can continue their shipping of commerce.”
Due to the ice formation, Reilich added it would make it difficult for water regulators to release water from the Moses-Saunders Dam — the structure that regulates Lake Ontario inflows and outflows between Canada and the U.S. — in the spring.
“Now you're taking that high water level and you're adding to it in the spring to the natural snow melt — as well as spring rainfall — and therefore you create the situation that we saw in 2017 and 2019,” he explained. “What you need to do is to shorten that shipping season, whether it be mid November or no later than Dec. 1, and allow a higher flow of water to come out to better prepare you for the spring.”
Reilich’s claim echoes what U.S. Rep. Anthony Brindisi, who represents the northern part of Oswego County, has said in relation to naval commerce and high water levels.
At a town hall held this summer in Pulaski, Brindisi, D-Utica, said Canadian interests seem to lean toward prioritizing commercial decisions.
“It seems to me that Canadians want to push shipping,” he said during the event held at Pulaski High School in late July. “That's their number one priority. We have got to get the communities to agree with us on how to move forward, and I think because (Canadian communities) have also experienced some flooding on their side they are more willing to look at (current water regulation strategies).”
Brindisi and Reilich join the dozens of elected officials and property owners who have long decried Plan 2014 — the current strategy employed by the IJC to regulate Lake Ontario water flow — and called for a revision of the plan or the adoption of old and amended plans altogether.
“It really doesn't matter what one believes, how or why we have increased volume of water in the system,” Reilich said. “What manners is: we have got to have a plan to get rid of it so that we don't bear the brunt of it out on the southern shore of Lake Ontario.”
Plan 2014, according to Reilich, currently shows an imbalance on the criteria taken into account when looking at outflows out of the Moses-Saunders Dam.
“Even in Plan 2014 it said that your decision should not be overly burdened by one of the interests in the plan,” Reilich said. “Quite frankly, it is not a balanced plan when the southern shore is being flooded. That is not striking a balance.”
Reilich said he is “not a supporter of the plan.”
“To make change it requires the support of others besides myself,” he said. “So whether we dramatically modify the plan at this point or work on a different plan that is yet to be determined. But what we have now is not working.”
 
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Opie

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Looks like we made the news ..



City should ban new Beach Strip basements and help fill in existing ones: study
The Beach Strip is flooding worse than ever, and cost the city $4 million this year just to truck out the water.

The Beach Strip is flooding worse than ever, and cost the city $4M this year just to truck out the water


Samantha Craggs · CBC News · Posted: Sep 26, 2019 6:01 PM ET | Last Updated: September 26


Calvin Huizinga, a city wastewater collection system inspector, checks a manhole on Bayside Avenue on the beach strip in 2017. The city thought 2017 was its worst year for flooding, but this year cost more than twice as much to deal with it. (Samantha Craggs/CBC)
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A program to have residents fill in their basements is just one of several sweeping changes a consultant is recommending to address flooding damage on Hamilton's Beach strip.

Beach residents there have long suffered from flooded basements and pools of water on their properties. But it's getting worse.

After significant flooding in two of the past three years and a worrying outlook for future floods because of climate change, the consultant says some new rules are needed.


The consultant also recommends making sure the ground floors of new homes are built at a higher level than they are now and banning any new basements or crawl spaces.

Entire news item can be seen here .............. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/beach-boulevard-flooding-1.5298458
 
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scotto

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Lower water level plan gaining steam
Belleville, ON, Canada / Quinte News
John Spitters
September 30, 2019 10:22 am

From left to right: Mayors Marg Isbester, Napanee, Brian Ostrander, Brighton, Mitch Panciuk, Belleville, Jim Harrison, Quinte West, and Warden of Hastings County Rick Phillips. (Photo: Quinte News)

It’s only been a few days, and a lot of letters are still being sent out, but the mayor of Quinte West says support is rolling in supporting a demand to immediately lower Lake Ontario’s water levels.

Last Tuesday, five Quinte region mayors and the Warden of Hastings County formally demanded the International Joint Commission drop the lake’s water levels, now about 21 inches above what is normal for this time of year.

Mayor Jim Harrison says that six other mayors of communities along the north shore have expressed their support and it’s hoped a meeting can be held soon with the mayor of Toronto John Tory.

Harrison says it’s not only political leaders who need to get involved.

Meanwhile, both MPP Todd Smith and MP Neil Ellis have expressed their support for an immediate drop in Lake Ontario levels.Flooding caused serious damage last spring and there are concerns flooding could be much worse next spring.

Read whole article;
https://www.quintenews.com/2019/09/30/lower-water-level-plan-gaining-steam/

More;
 
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scotto

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Attached is the real time September water levels for Lake Ontario, roughly a .3 meter drop. Hopefully the level drops much more before winter comes.




Climate change: Will it change your federal election vote?
October3rd, 2019
by Matthew Van Dongen The Hamilton Spectator

The consequences of climate change are not theoretical for Agartha Manu, who is building a house on stilts in the beach strip.

The Hamilton mother of three has waited since June to begin a Habitat for Humanity house on Wickham Avenue — but record Lake Ontario levels left the ground too sodden to pour a slab foundation. "You can't argue with the lake; only wait," Manu told The Spectator months ago.

Now the wait is finally over — but only because the non-profit affordable housing provider has accepted the reality of climate change on the storm-battered and low-lying beach strip.

Experts predict climate change will drive more rapid shifts between high and low water levels on the Great Lakes — as well as more violent, unpredictable storms.

So Manu's house will now be built atop deep-driven screw piles — basically "metal stilts" — to account for the increasingly uncertain water table, said local Habitat head Sean Ferris. "It's a first for us, but probably not the last given what we're seeing with climate change."

Construction will begin just ahead of an Oct. 21 federal election that features climate change as a top concern for voters.

Read whole article;
https://www.thespec.com/news-story/...e-will-it-change-your-federal-election-vote-/
 

Opie

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hate to be the bearer of bad news but the IJC is going to stay its course for the time being
https://www.quintenews.com/2019/10/02/quinte-west-mayor-says-ijc-needs-to-get-on-the-same-page/

Quinte West Mayor says IJC needs to get on the same page
Belleville, ON, Canada / Quinte News

David Foot
October 02, 2019 02:22 pm
The mayor of Quinte West says he’s disappointed by the International Joint Commission’s reaction to a request to immediately drop the water levels across the Great Lakes.
A group of Quinte Region mayors made the request to the IJC last week, hoping the body that controls water levels in Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River, would take immediate action to reduce flooding impacts.
The IJC says it plans on doing all it can to lessen flooding threats this spring but will not immediately drop water levels in Lake Ontario and Mayor Jim Harrison says that shows the two groups aren’t on the same page.
He says there needs to be a firm plan in place to immediately reduce local flooding impacts.
The Commission says it plans to speed up a review of the performance of Plan 2014 regarding water flows and is looking at several options to reduce water levels ahead of 2020.
Harrison did add that he’s glad the IJC came back with a quick response because it gives them time to look at the options and try to work out a plan moving forward.


More news from around the lake
This story keeps me wondering why no one has yet brought up the point that most of these goods shipped around on the great lakes can be converted back to rail car ?? makes you wonder


https://www.nny360.com/news/stlawrencecounty/save-the-river-again-seeks-intermittent-shipping-to-further-lower/article_4968187c-b5f8-5361-9c23-47570d54cce4.html

Save the River again seeks intermittent shipping to further lower water levels
aiming To lower water levels: Save the River calls for action so more water can be released
CLAYTON — The hope to further lower Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River water levels prompted Save the River to once again call for intermittent shipping, so more water could be released from the lake.
John M. Peach, executive director of the nonprofit, on Tuesday wrote in a letter to various officials that he wants the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board to be able to release more water through the Robert Moses-Robert H. Saunders Power Dam in Massena and Cornwall, Ontario to lower lake levels more. In order to raise outflows, which could create unsafe conditions for shipping, Mr. Peach urged the St. Lawrence Seaway Development and Management corporations, entities that operate the Seaway on the U.S. and Canadian sides, respectively, to implement temporary, routine shutdowns of shipping.
Water levels of the Great Lakes remain above average, and Mr. Peach said if they stay high, he fears riparians and shoreline business owners could face another year of widespread flooding like this year and in 2017.
The director of Save the River referenced ending the shipping season early on Dec. 1 so the river board could release more water, but because of the possible “scheduling and logistics challenges” and supply disruptions for shipping, he said intermittent shutdowns, which he referred to as patterning, would be the best compromise and solution.
“They could do this three days on and three days off,” Mr. Peach said. “This is a pretty extreme situation we’re in.”
Outflows have been at sustained record levels for almost the entire summer in an attempt to mitigate record-high water levels, but have been decreasing since Aug. 20 to provide safer conditions for commercial shipping freighters, help reduce cross-currents and erosion. As Lake Ontario’s level drops, St. Lawrence River velocities increase as the same volume of water passes through a lower and narrower river making it necessary to reduce outflows in order to manage the dangerous currents.
The river board typically lowers outflows gradually through the fall and into winter so the water can form a stable ice cover during the winter and prevent ice jams. Outflows then increase once more.
Lake levels were 246.24 feet Tuesday, about half a foot above the historic average for this time. Outflows were 9,090 cubic meters per second Tuesday, above record and historical average outflows for this time.
Frank L. Bevacqua, U.S. information officer for the river board’s parent agency, the International Joint Commission, said while exploring options to raise outflows above regulatory constraints, the board had not considered intermittent shipping for temporary hikes. Patterning, he said, would not lower lake levels more than keeping a sustained outflow pattern.
Mr. Peach previously contended that authorities implemented patterning in 1993, but Mr. Bevacqua said it failed to yield favorable results.
“It was an experiment,” Mr. Bevacqua said.
Excessive precipitation across the Great Lakes Basin and high outflow from Lake Erie, which also experienced record-breaking water levels, were key factors in Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River experiencing unprecedented water levels this year.
The effects were compounded by a heavy snow pack along the Ottawa River basin melting a little later than usual and major rains throughout the basin in late April and into May, which led to record flows from the river into the lower St. Lawrence River. This excess water caused Lake St. Louis, located where the Ottawa and St. Lawrence rivers meet, to exceed flood stage, flooding large areas near Montreal and elsewhere in Quebec. In order to mitigate the effects of this flooding, the river board reduced outflows, backing water up on Lake Ontario.
 
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River levels remain higher than average: CRCA

The Recorder and Times staff

Published on: October 8, 2019 | Last Updated: October 9, 2019 9:53 AM EDT


A clump of earth and grass, and part of a dock, washed up on Blockhouse Island in Brockville as river levels remained high in late July. (FILE PHOTO) jpg, BT
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A water safety statement for Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River has been extended, the Cataraqui Region Conservation Authority (CRCA) announced on Tuesday.
Although water levels continue to decline, they remain above average. The river level at Brockville was measured at 74.7 metres on Monday, which is about 0.4 metres higher than the average for this time of year.
Lake Ontario outflows in September set a record for the month and remain high to accelerate water level decreases on the lake. The international board that manages outflows “…will continue releasing high outflows while considering the effects on all interests within the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system,” CRCA stated in a news release.
River levels will likely be above average at the start of 2020, according to forecasts. “Additional opportunities to further increases outflows, however brief or incremental, are being evaluated in order to try and reduce the risk of potentially high water levels again next spring,” the release said. “And, no different from previous years, water levels next year will largely depend on weather conditions.”
Water levels on the upper river reached record and near-record highs earlier this year and in 2017.
 
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News from around the lake and this is a head scratcher! When the IJC was formed it was set out that the commission has immunity over these such issues and Gov. Cuomo's office is aware of this, so is this for the sake of political grandstanding?

https://www.syracuse.com/weather/20...-canada-panel-over-lake-ontario-flooding.html


NY state to sue US-Canada panel over Lake Ontario flooding
Updated 2:40 PM; Today 2:29 PM


By Glenn Coin | gcoin@syracuse.com
Syracuse, N.Y. -- New York state plans to sue the U.S.-Canada commission that regulates Lake Ontario levels, claiming that the commission’s neglect caused extensive flooding and damage along the lake this year.
A citizens group, Lake Ontario Saint Lawrence River Alliance, is trying to raise $1 million to file a separate lawsuit suit against the International Joint Commission, according to recent newspaper advertisement.

Both the state and the citizens group charge that the commission’s new plan to regulate water levels led to record flooding that year and again in 2019. The plan, called Plan 2014, took effect in early 2017, at the same time a period of record rainfall began in the Great Lakes basin. Those records stood for just two years; 2019 rainfall was even higher than 2017, and so were lake and river levels.
New York state spent more than $100 million to help repair damage sustained along the shore in 2017, and this year water levels were even higher, according to a news release from the state announcing the lawsuit.
“Following these events, the IJC should have recognized the significant potential of future devastation from rising waters and taken action to lessen the extent of damage caused by flood waters,” said state Department of Environmental Conservation Commissioner Basil Seggos in the release.
A call to the commission for comment was not immediately returned. The commission is the parent agency of the International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board, which actually oversees the lake levels.

The commission and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have said in the past, however, that record rainfall, not Plan 2014, was to blame for the flooding in 2017 and this year. All five Great Lakes exceeded record levels, and the outflow from Lake Erie into Ontario reached a record, too. The Ottawa River, which drains into the St. Lawrence and is not regulated by Plan 2014, saw record flooding in 2017 and again in 2019.
The commission also let out record water flows from the lake through the Moses-Saunders power dam at Cornwall. The commission must balance several competing interests when determining the outflows, including shoreline residents in Lake Ontario and along the St. Lawrence, commercial shipping, and
The news release today from Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s office said that the IJC “must compensate the State for the destruction resulting from water level mismanagement.”
 
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Good morning, it has been 3 weeks since the last update and it shows the lake level dropping but not by much and still on the high side as we start the fall storm season.

Friday October 11, the average level is at 75.11 M (246.42 Feet)

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2009, the October lake level average has been 74.61 M ( 245.34 Feet )
The average lake level for October 2017 was 74.86 M ( 245.60 Feet )
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 13 C / 56 F


Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Sept 20 – 75.28
Sept 06 – 75.386
Aug 23 – 75.51
Aug 16 – 75.585
Aug 09 – 75.65
Aug 02 – 75.72
July 26 – 75.78
July 19 - 75.85
July 11 - 75.89
July 05 - 75.93
June 28 - 75.95
June 21 - 75.95
June 14 – 75.984
June 07 – 75.97
May 30 - 75.94
May 24 - 75.86
May 17 - 75.795
May 03 - 75.51
Apr 29 - 75.41
Apr 12 - 75.10
Mar 29 - 75.018
Mar 15 - 75.0
Mar 08 - 74.97
Feb 22 - 75.00
Feb 08 - 74.96
Jan 25 - 74.88
Jan 11 - 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

And courtesy of the IJC,, their numbers

International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board
Conseil international du lac Ontario et du fleuve Saint-Laurent
The Lake Ontario outflow will be reduced to 7900 m³/s for two days starting at 4 PM Friday to facilitate the removal of recreational boats and equipment on Lake St. Lawrence. The flow will then be ramped up to 8920 m³/s on Sunday starting at 3 PM. The actual flow may vary depending on conditions in the St. Lawrence River.
Week Ending: Average this time
Wed, 09 Oct 2019 of the year (c)
Lake Ontario / Lac Ontario
Actual end of week level: 75.06 (246.26) 74.65 (244.91)
Computed Plan 2014 Level (a): 75.13 (246.49)
Computed Preproject Level (b): 75.76 (248.56)
Weekly Mean Outflow: 9010 (318200) 7400 (261300)
Weekly Total Supply: 7060 (249300) 6410 (226400)
Lake St. Lawrence at Long Sault Dam 72.79 (238.81) 73.13 (239.93)
Weekly Mean Level:
Lake St. Louis at Pointe-Claire Weekly 21.55 (70.70) 21.13 (69.32)
Mean Level:
Montreal Harbour at Jetty #1 Weekly Mean 6.53 (21.42) 6.20 (20.34)
Level:
Ottawa River at Carillon Weekly Mean 1060 (37400) 1240 (43800)
Outflow:
Preliminary Lake Ontario Outflow for Week 8680 (306500) 7350 (259600)
Ending Fri, 18 Oct 2019:
Levels are in metres (feet) IGLD 1985. Supply and flows are in cubic metres (feet) per second m³/s (ft³/s).
(a) Levels that would have occurred with strict adherence to Plan 2014.
(b) Levels that would have occurred had there been no Lake Ontario regulation.
(c) For comparison purposes, Lake Ontario water level data since 1918 are used to be consistent with those published in the US and Canadian Great Lakes bulletins (http://www.waterlevels.gc.ca/C&A/bulletin-eng.html). Other averages are for the periods as follows: Lake Ontario outflows and levels at Long Sault and Pointe-Claire since 1960; Montreal since 1967; and Ottawa River outflow at Carillon since 1963.
The regulation plan for Lake Ontario specifies a weekly average outflow from Saturday through the following Friday, inclusive. To provide timely information for the coming week to the hydropower and Seaway operators, and our readers, we complete the regulation plan calculations each Thursday. Our calculations use the data available at the time, which are from the previous seven days (Thursday through Wednesday). Since the two time periods do not exactly coincide, their data are usually slightly different.
The table shows the actual flow for the week ending Wednesday. It also gives the preliminary flow for the coming week ending Friday. We emphasize that this is the preliminary flow, since unforeseen flow changes may occur after we have issued our notice. When these flow changes occur, they are reflected in the subsequent week's notice.
Information in this report is compiled from provisional data provided by: Environment & Climate Change Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Hydro Quebec, Ontario Power Generation Inc, the New York Power Authority, and the U.S. National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration.
Visit the Board's website at https://ijc.org/en/loslrb to find out more.
 
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Good morning, 2 weeks since the last reading and the lake has only gone down by 8 cm / 3 inches

Friday October 25, the average level is at 75.03 M (246.16 Feet)

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2009, the October lake level average has been 74.61 M ( 245.34 Feet )
The average lake level for October 2017 was 74.86 M ( 245.60 Feet )
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 11 C / 52 F


Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Oct 11 – 75.11
Sept 20 – 75.28
Sept 06 – 75.386
Aug 23 – 75.51
Aug 16 – 75.585
Aug 09 – 75.65
Aug 02 – 75.72
July 26 – 75.78
July 19 - 75.85
July 11 - 75.89
July 05 - 75.93
June 28 - 75.95
June 21 - 75.95
June 14 – 75.984
June 07 – 75.97
May 30 - 75.94
May 24 - 75.86
May 17 - 75.795
May 03 - 75.51
Apr 29 - 75.41
Apr 12 - 75.10
Mar 29 - 75.018
Mar 15 - 75.0
Mar 08 - 74.97
Feb 22 - 75.00
Feb 08 - 74.96
Jan 25 - 74.88
Jan 11 - 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

And courtesy of the IJC,, their numbers

International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board
Conseil international du lac Ontario et du fleuve Saint-Laurent
The average Lake Ontario outflow is expected to be 8,850 m³/s for the coming week. This flow rate is 200 m³/s above the normal safe navigation flow limit that applies at the current Lake Ontario elevation as defined by the regulation plan. Actual outflows will depend on conditions in the St. Lawrence River.
Week Ending: Average this time
Wed, 23 Oct 2019
Lake Ontario
Actual end of week level: 75.00 (246.06) 74.59 (244.72)
Computed Plan 2014 Level (a): 75.07 (246.29)
Computed Preproject Level (b): 75.74 (248.49)
Weekly Mean Outflow: 8880 (313600) 7330 (258900)
Weekly Total Supply: 8270 (292100) 6540 (231000)
Lake St. Lawrence at Long Sault Dam 72.85 (239.01) 73.08 (239.76)
Weekly Mean Level:
Lake St. Louis at Pointe-Claire Weekly 21.54 (70.67) 21.14 (69.36)
Mean Level:
Montreal Harbour at Jetty #1 Weekly Mean 6.57 (21.56) 6.25 (20.51)
Level:
Ottawa River at Carillon Weekly Mean 990 (35000) 1450 (51200)
Outflow:
Preliminary Lake Ontario Outflow for Week 8850 (312500) 7300 (257800)
Ending Fri, 01 Nov 2019:
Levels are in metres (feet) IGLD 1985. Supply and flows are in cubic metres (feet) per second m³/s (ft³/s).
(a) Levels that would have occurred with strict adherence to Plan 2014.
(b) Levels that would have occurred had there been no Lake Ontario regulation.

The table shows the actual flow for the week ending Wednesday. It also gives the preliminary flow for the coming week ending Friday. We emphasize that this is the preliminary flow, since unforeseen flow changes may occur after we have issued our notice. When these flow changes occur, they are reflected in the subsequent week's notice.


Information in this report is compiled from provisional data provided by: Environment & Climate Change Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Hydro Quebec, Ontario Power Generation Inc, the New York Power Authority, and the U.S. National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration.


Visit the Board's website at https://ijc.org/en/loslrb to find out more.
(c) For comparison purposes, Lake Ontario water level data since 1918 are used to be consistent with those published in the US and Canadian Great Lakes bulletins (http://www.waterlevels.gc.ca/C&A/bulletin-eng.html). Other averages are for the periods as follows: Lake Ontario outflows and levels at Long Sault and Pointe-Claire since 1960; Montreal since 1967; and Ottawa River outflow at Carillon since 1963.
The regulation plan for Lake Ontario specifies a weekly average outflow from Saturday through the following Friday, inclusive. To provide timely information for the coming week to the hydropower and Seaway operators, and our readers, we complete the regulation plan calculations each Thursday. Our calculations use the data available at the time, which are from the previous seven days (Thursday through Wednesday). Since the two time periods do not exactly coincide, their data are usually slightly different.
 
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Attached is the levels for Lake Ontario for the month of October, notice very little change except on the last day. However that drop was wiped out by heavy rains, we actually gained on the next couple of days.
Not good news.



As of today;

 
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You are correct that the current level is not good. As of noon today the lake level has risen since my last reading on Oct 25th. Currently it is at 75.11 M/246.42 feet
That is an 8 cm or approx 3 inch increase, when the lake level should be dropping.

Over a week ago, I came across an article on an action that a group called “Save the River” were taking. Asking the IJC to close the St Lawrence water way for commercial cargo ship traffic, from the Mosses Saunders dam to the ocean. The topic was written about a short while back and with great swiftness, a stake holder ( The Marine Commerce ) said that the devastating impact it would have on both country’s economies and the logistical nightmare that would ensue.

When Save the River brought this up again, I wanted to see if it would have more momentum but this is the only article below that I have found regarding it. I also took a look at the harbour traffic that the Hamilton Oshawa Port Authority (HOPA) has had in the last couple of weeks to see what impact it would have should the seaway be closed. Of course the other Great Lake ports may have a different take but for us it would be of little consequence. In fact I make you a bet the oversea ships that did come into the Great Lakes could have easily taken or picked up their cargo at one of the many port at the mouth of the St Lawrence. All of these ports are serviced by the nation’s rail providers and this cargo could travel this way-the way it has been done for many decades.

Of course there is an increased cost to doing it on the rail or by trucking companies but the goods still flow. Save the River and the like should actually push for a delay in the opening of the Seaway in 2020 to the mid or late summer. If the spring rains or big winter melt off does not appear and lake level is brought down quick enough, stabilized to a safe level. Then open up the seaway early.

Is this a radical approach, absolutely but the current approach is not cutting it. Especially when you factor in the other Great Lakes that still need to also drain into Lake Ontario eventually. As I mentioned before when we started this thread, we are looking at several more years for the possibility of flooding before things get better.

https://www.niagara-gazette.com/news/local_news/pressure-mounts-on-ijc-to-stave-off-possible-ontario-flooding/article_13cde03a-1c46-5c75-9e75-53f6be846f37.html

Pressure mounts on IJC to stave off possible 2020 Ontario flooding
REPORT: Forecasts show almost 50% chance lake will be higher in May 2020 than in 2019.
  • By Tim Fenster tim.fenster@niagara-gazette.com

  • 19 hrs ago

    Pressure is mounting on regulators to release more water from Lake Ontario in the coming months, as forecasts predict an increasing likelihood of high water levels next spring.
    Forecasts from an International Joint Commission subsidiary that sets lake outflows estimate a nearly 50 percent chance Lake Ontario will reach or exceed 247 feet by early May — just inches below the lake level that time this past spring. A combination of snowmelt, heavy rainfall and downstream flooding tends to raise water levels in Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River through April, May and sometimes June.
    This spring, water levels kept climbing until peaking at a record high of 249.08 feet June 14, according to the IJC subsidiary, the International Lake Ontario St. Lawrence River Board.
    What's more, the board forecasts a 5 percent chance the lake could nearly hit that record high by May 1.
    Several environmental and shoreline groups have raised alarm at these forecasts as well as recent conditions.
    Jim Shea, president of the Lake Ontario St. Lawrence River Alliance, pointed out the levels ticked up nearly two inches between Oct. 26 and 30. Meanwhile, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Friday forecasted no drop in the lake levels by Dec. 1.
    "At a time when Lake Ontario water levels should be going down, they are going up," Shea wrote.
    Shea urged Alliance members to write Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Trump to ask the leaders to repeal Plan 2014, a new water regulation plan that many shoreline groups blame for the flooding this year and in 2017.
    "Canadians and Americans cannot afford a repeat of the Lake Ontario floods of 2017 and 2019," Shea said.
    Members of United Shoreline Ontario, a Canadian homeowner group, said the IJC's current outflow strategy is "setting us up for a third year of catastrophic economic, social and environmental destruction."
    The IJC has said it is maintaining the highest outflows possible without increasing currents so much the river becomes unsafe for shipping.
    Since Oct. 26, the board has kept outflows at about 2.34 million gallons per second — well below the estimated 2.59 million gallons entering the lake every second.
    IJC spokesman Frank Bevacqua said the board has kept outflows nearly 53,000 gallons per second above the rate considered safe for commercial navigation.
    “The IJC’s board has worked tirelessly to reduce water levels, including record-high outflows through the summer, and Lake Ontario has come down nearly three feet," Bevacqua said in a statement.
    Higher outflows would necessitate a shutdown of the St. Lawrence Seaway, a critical artery for commerce.
    But St. Lawrence environmental group is urging for just such a shutdown.
    Save the River, an environmental non-profit representing the southern St. Lawrence River, wrote a letter Oct. 26 asking the U.S. Department of Transportation and Canadian arm of the Great Lakes Seaway Corporation to close the waterway Dec. 1. The U.S. and Canadian Seaway corporations jointly determine when to close the waterway.
    The Seaway typically closes from late December to late March, with weather conditions influencing the precise closure and opening dates.
    "It appears that the only proactive maneuver within your power against (2020 flooding) is to allow for ramp up of the outflows … to the maximum design limits," John Peach, director of Save the River, wrote to DOT Deputy Administrator Craig Middlebrook and Terence Bowles, president and CEO of the Great Lakes Seaway Management Corporation.
    “Closing the seaway on Dec. 1 would create the opportunity for the (board) to increase outflows to the maximum and decrease the water level before having to temporarily reduce the flow to form a proper sheet of ice," Peach wrote.
    Members of another shoreline group, the Lake Ontario Riparian Alliance, commended Save the River's efforts.
    "They are joining the lake shoreline speaking with one voice. At some point the IJC and Canadian and US governments have to take notice and respond," LORA President Dr. Dan Barletta said in a statement.
    Gov. Cuomo's office urged for stronger action to mitigate potential 2020 flooding, though without explicitly endorsing an early Seaway closure.
    “For too long, the IJC has put business and shipping interests before the best interests of our communities in New York," Cuomo spokesman Jason Conwall said in a statement. "That needs to change and we believe all options should be on the table to reduce flooding in shoreline communities."
    But closing the Seaway weeks early would be a costly disruption to numerous U.S. and Canadian industries.
    A spokeswoman for the Chamber for Marine Commerce, which represents shipping in the Great Lakes and Arctic, said December is "one of our busiest times of the year." Closing the Montreal-to-Lake-Ontario stretch of the Seaway then would cost the U.S. and Canadian economies $27 million (USD) per day, according to Chamber spokeswoman Julia Fields.
    "December is a critical time for grain exports and stockpiling of raw materials for the manufacturing sector to operate through the winter months," Fields said in a statement. "A closure would disrupt supply chains, cancelling already booked cargoes or forcing them onto thousands of trucks – raising prices and causing environmental and social implications."
    The IJC suggested Save the River's preferred approach would not significantly change the lake level.
    "The board will continue to examine every option, including exceeding limits designed to prevent navigation accidents and ice jams in the winter, but all of the options provide limited relief and have significant negative consequences," Bevacqua said.
    Regardless, it's clear many shoreline homeowners and businesses are desperate to avert a third record-high water event in four years.
    Peach pointed out shoreline businesses “suffered significant losses due to the effects of extreme high water.
    "It will be difficult for them to make up those losses. Another extreme high water year could force them out of business," Peach wrote in his letter to the DOT and Seaway Management Corporation.
    "I don’t know how much more the businesses along the lakeshore can handle," said Kory Schuler, executive director of the Niagara USA Chamber.
    Schuler acknowledged state-funded efforts to strengthen shoreline areas could eventually help businesses struggling amid the lakeshore conditions of recent years. But for some businesses, those projects may provide too little relief too late.
    "I think some businesses may try and hang in there," Schuler said. "If we have another very adverse year (in 2020), I think then we’ll see some decision-making. There will be a reckoning.”
    Schuler said he is not sure exactly how an early Seaway closure would affect local businesses.
 
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Friday November 8th, the average level is at 75.105 M (246.41 Feet)

Per Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Since 2009, the November lake level average has been 74.55 M ( 244.59 Feet )
The average lake level for November 2017 was 74.87 M ( 245.64 Feet )
Surface water temperature by the lift bridge is 9 C / 48 F


Reading date / Lake Average 2019
Oct 25 – 75.03
Oct 11 – 75.11
Sept 20 – 75.28
Sept 06 – 75.386
Aug 23 – 75.51
Aug 16 – 75.585
Aug 09 – 75.65
Aug 02 – 75.72
July 26 – 75.78
July 19 - 75.85
July 11 - 75.89
July 05 - 75.93
June 28 - 75.95
June 21 - 75.95
June 14 – 75.984
June 07 – 75.97
May 30 - 75.94
May 24 - 75.86
May 17 - 75.795
May 03 - 75.51
Apr 29 - 75.41
Apr 12 - 75.10
Mar 29 - 75.018
Mar 15 - 75.0
Mar 08 - 74.97
Feb 22 - 75.00
Feb 08 - 74.96
Jan 25 - 74.88
Jan 11 - 74.81
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2018
Dec 28 – 74.78
Dec 14 – 74.72
Nov 30 – 74.696
Nov 16 – 74.68
Nov 02 – 74.67
Oct 19 – 74.614
Oct 05 – 74.72
Sept 21 – 74.785
Sept 07 – 74.86
Aug 24 – 74.91
Aug 10 – 74.98
Jul 30 – 75.12
Jul 13 – 75.129
Jun 29 – 75.228
Jun 15 – 75.25
Jun 01 – 75.33
May 18 – 75.35
May 04 – 75.23
Apr 20 – 75.08
Apr 06 – 74.97
Mar 23 – 74.918
Mar 09 – 74.99
Feb 23 – 74.973
Feb 09 – 74.90
Jan 26 – 74.95
Jan 12 – 74.81 M
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reading date / Lake Average 2017
Dec 27 – 74.71 M
Dec 08 – 74.795
Nov 24 – 74.89
Nov 09 – 74.929
Oct 27 – 74.83
Oct 10 – 74.95
Sept 29 – 74.99
Sept 15 – 75.12
Sept 01 – 75.28
Aug 18 - 75.47
Aug 04 - 75.6
July 22 - 75.71

And courtesy of the IJC,, their numbers

International Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River Board
Conseil international du lac Ontario et du fleuve Saint-Laurent
The Lake Ontario outflow has been temporarily decreased this week due to temporary capacity limitations at Hydro-Quebec’s facilities in the north channel of the St. Lawrence River, just downstream of the Moses-Saunders Dam. The outflow has started to be increased again and is expected to be 8,920 m3/s for the coming week. This flow rate is 200 m3/s above the normal safe navigation flow limit that applies at the current Lake Ontario elevation as defined by the regulation plan. Actual outflows will depend on conditions in the St. Lawrence River.
Week Ending: Average this time
Wed, 06 Nov 2019 of the year (c)
Lake Ontario / Lac Ontario
Actual end of week level: 75.07 (246.29) 74.55 (244.59)
Computed Plan 2014 Level (a): 75.15 (246.56)
Computed Preproject Level (b): 75.81 (248.72)
Weekly Mean Outflow: 8750 (309000) 7270 (256700)
Weekly Total Supply: 10120 (357400) 6870 (242600)
Lake St. Lawrence at Long Sault Dam 73.22 (240.22) 73.06 (239.70)
Weekly Mean Level:
Lake St. Louis at Pointe-Claire Weekly 21.90 (71.85) 21.18 (69.49)
Mean Level:
Montreal Harbour at Jetty #1 Weekly Mean 7.33 (24.05) 6.35 (20.83)
Level:
Ottawa River at Carillon Weekly Mean 2500 (88300) 1780 (62900)
Outflow:
Preliminary Lake Ontario Outflow for Week 8920 (315000) 7260 (256400)
Ending Fri, 15 Nov 2019:
Levels are in metres (feet) IGLD 1985. Supply and flows are in cubic metres (feet) per second m³/s (ft³/s).
(a) Levels that would have occurred with strict adherence to Plan 2014.
(b) Levels that would have occurred had there been no Lake Ontario regulation.
(c) For comparison purposes, Lake Ontario water level data since 1918 are used to be consistent with those published in the US and Canadian Great Lakes bulletins (http://www.waterlevels.gc.ca/C&A/bulletin-eng.html). Other averages are for the periods as follows: Lake Ontario outflows and levels at Long Sault and Pointe-Claire since 1960; Montreal since 1967; and Ottawa River outflow at Carillon since 1963.
The regulation plan for Lake Ontario specifies a weekly average outflow from Saturday through the following Friday, inclusive. To provide timely information for the coming week to the hydropower and Seaway operators, and our readers, we complete the regulation plan calculations each Thursday. Our calculations use the data available at the time, which are from the previous seven days (Thursday through Wednesday). Since the two time periods do not exactly coincide, their data are usually slightly different.
The table shows the actual flow for the week ending Wednesday. It also gives the preliminary flow for the coming week ending Friday. We emphasize that this is the preliminary flow, since unforeseen flow changes may occur after we have issued our notice. When these flow changes occur, they are reflected in the subsequent week's notice.
Information in this report is compiled from provisional data provided by: Environment & Climate Change Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Hydro Quebec, Ontario Power Generation Inc, the New York Power Authority, and the U.S. National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration.
Visit the Board's website at https://ijc.org/en/loslrb to find out more.
 

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The Beach Strip
News from around the lake .....

Protecting home at any cost

Sabrina Bedford
More from Sabrina Bedford

Published on: November 7, 2019 | Last Updated: November 7, 2019 8:00 PM EST


Debra McCord and Bill Cody stand at their riverfront home after construction crews elevated the structure 12 feet in the air to protect it from rising water levels. Sabrina Bedford

Nestled on the banks of the St. Lawrence River, Debra McCord and Bill Cody are taking drastic measures to protect their piece of paradise from encroaching waters.
The couple has lived in their quaint waterfront home since 2004, but the stress in recent years from rising water levels prompted them to elevate the 137-year-old structure 12 feet into the air.
The Victorian home was built in 1882 and has seen water levels rise and fall over the decades. But the water in their crawlspace got so close to hitting the electrical infrastructure this summer they felt like they had no other choice but to spend part of their life savings on making sure it never happens again.
“This is our home. If we didn’t do it, we would lose it all,” McCord said.
“This is affecting my life. It’s affecting my health. It’s affecting my stress levels. It’s affecting my trust in government.”
High water levels, which she and many other property owners blame on mismanagement by the International Joint Commission (IJC) under plan 2014, were especially bad in 2017 and 2019. Currently the water is sitting about 18 inches higher than it would normally be at this time of year, and next year the water is expected to be even higher, McCord said.
The couple had to keep three pumps running this summer to keep the water away from hitting critical infrastructure. Knowing they couldn’t tolerate the stress of another year of flooding, they made the decision to elevate the house, even though they knew it would be a significant financial undertaking.
It was their only option, she said. They couldn’t sell – as a local real estate agent, McCord knows all about full disclosure. She couldn’t in good conscience sell the home knowing water levels for 2020 are expected to be even higher than they were this year.
The home was detached from the foundation and jacked up over the course of three days. Now, a construction crew is working on pouring the footings before laying a foundation and building an eight-foot wall at the base of the house.
They’ve had to pay for the expenditure out of their own pocket; McCord said insurance wouldn’t help and her calls to the government have fallen on deaf ears.
They also had to pay “multiple thousands of dollars” to the municipality, conservation authority and health units to get permission to safeguard their home from what is predicted to be an “even more catastrophic flooding” next spring, she said.
She also said since it is considered a rebuild, the assessment of the home will increase, thus upping their property taxes.
“We’re entirely on our own,” she said.
“I couldn’t really afford it, but I couldn’t afford not to do it.”
She feels the government has failed them and every property owner along the river with its inaction on this issue.
She is calling on anybody to listen to her and her neighbours. She sent a letter to the prime minister, the local MP and MPP, and every mayor in Leeds and Grenville along the Seaway. She got a thank you from two mayors, but nobody else has followed up on her letters or her concerns.
“It’s indicative of the issue itself. Nobody cares.”
That’s all she’s looking for, she said: Someone to hear their concerns and see if anything can be done.
She wants the IJC to listen to the pleas of those experiencing the impact of the high water and to adjust the water management plan accordingly.
Last week, the international body said it plans to “investigate options” that could be taken now to reduce water levels before next spring and said it hopes to expedite its review process to see if there is anything that can be done.
 
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